Australian mortgage demand slumps as rates rise

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released mortgage growth data for March, which reveals that mortgage demand continues to fade.

Quarterly mortgage credit growth slowed further to 1.8% – down 0.3% from January’s 12-year high:

Quarterly mortgage credit growth

Owner-occupiers continue to drive mortgage growth, rising by 1.9% over the quarter versus 1.7% growth for investors:

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Quarterly mortgage growth by cohort

However, annual mortgage growth continues to rise from record low levels. It rose to 7.9% in the year to April 2022 – the highest level since August 2010:

Annual mortgage credit growth
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Again, this growth is being driven by owner-occupiers, whose annual mortgage growth was 9.0% in the year to April 2022, versus 5.8% growth in investor mortgages:

Annual mortgage credit growth

The slowing mortgage demand makes sense given mortgage rates – both fixed and variable – have risen from their pandemic lows.

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Other things equal, rising mortgage rates reduces how much a purchaser can borrow and shrinks the pool of potential buyers.

With interest rates tipped to rise sharply, mortgage demand should slow further in the months ahead.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.