Tanking auction market signals Sydney house price pain

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CoreLogic has released its final auction results for last weekend, with a national final clearance rate of 63.4% recorded, pulled down by Sydney where clearances were below 60% for the second consecutive week:

Capital city auction results

Sydney drags nation’s auction clearance rate lower.

This time last year, 77.2% of auctions nationally were successful, whereas 79.3% of reported auctions across Sydney were successful.

The next chart shows that auction clearance rates have continue to trend lower over 2022, signaling a softening market:

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National auction clearance rate

The national auction clearance rate has trended lower over 2022.

Auction clearance rates have historically provided a useful indicator of house price growth across Sydney and Melbourne. Thus, the slump in Sydney’s clearance rate suggests that price falls – currently -0.6% quarter-on-quarter – should accelerate over the near term:

Sydney auction clearance rates vs prices

Auction clearance rates usually lead prices.

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This should be no surprise, given Sydney is the most expensive housing market in the nation with the most indebted households. Therefore, Sydney homeowners and homebuyers are most sensitive to changes in interest rates, which are now predicted to rise sharply.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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