Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A late bounceback on Chinese stocks didn’t spread to other markets in the region today, as traders reacted to the overnight whomping on Wall Street. The USD remains firm against all the majors although the Australian dollar was able to bounce back a tiny bit this afternoon following the unclear inflation print. Oil markets are trying to stabilise again with Brent crude still hovering just above the $105USD per barrel level while gold is also struggling following the recent slump below the $1900USD per ounce level, as daily momentum remains sharply negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets are the only highlight in the region with the Shanghai Composite closing more than 2% higher at 2958 points while the Hang Seng Index held on for a mild scratch session, up 0.2% at 19973 points. Japanese stock markets are still falling in the wake of a stronger Yen with the Nikkei 225 closing 1% lower at 26386 points while the USDJPY pair remains under pressure as it tries to climb back above the 128 handle after slipping overnight:

Australian stocks ended up a bit better than expected, absorbing the inflation print with the ASX200 losing nearly 0.8% to add to its poor start to a truncated trading week, closing at 7261 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has had a mild bounceback following the CPI print, but this was all squandered thereafter as traders remain concerned about what the RBA will actually do:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are looking listless here as the S&P500 four hourly chart shows price ready to keep heading lower down this frightful set of steps, wanting to get back to the lows around the 4000 point level:

The economic calendar includes German consumer confidence and US pending home sales.

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Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Staying over at the factory. Sorting and stacking other stuff from out of the container. Dry bread for dinner.
    Too old for this sht.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      The hypocritical bullies ( through strata ) are threatening legal action if the containers are not removed within 2 weeks. Bit rich coming from the panelbeater with dead cars and parts on common property resembling a wrecker yard.

      • I reckon we’re getting close to TSHTF Boom and from your experiences over the years I think you are pretty well prepared so hang in there – lots of folks are going to be doing it pretty hard soon – especially anyone with any leverage.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Bastards of a body corporate management!
        I hope you’ll sort this out soon and back to normal tomorrow 😄

    • Absolute BeachMEMBER

      Go hard brother. And FYI, never too old. If you can still ride the treadly, get out the back on clean days and machine big stuff, you should be proud. Most blokes don’t get close to doing any of that- ever.
      Take a breath. Walk outside and look at the sky. Spend a few minutes thinking of three things you are proud of, and three things you are grateful for.
      Then eat that bread and hook into it.

  2. German consumers more worried by the present situation than they were by Covid at the start .and they still have gas ( for how long is the question……Germany is not Bulgaria or Poland )

    https://twitter.com/TheMarketDog/status/1519197207026622464

    High yield CDS starting to break out…….one to watch……this is where the rubber meets the road, all these guys need to be re-financed sooner or later ( sooner the better with interest rates going up but no one wants the risk…..talking 15% mezzanine finance with warrants )

    https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1519088836688625664

    • The Wizz of Ozz

      Yes old boy when the river runs dry if you understand the river running dry of our loins

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      In 2019, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 25% of the world’s total wheat supply. Wheat accounts for ~20% of the total calories that they entire world consumes.

      If you assume that Russian wheat is behind embargo and Ukrainian wheat is destroyed; both for the next two seasons

      Then the planet is in a 5% calorie deficit. Not accounting for all the other food types that Russia and Ukraine produce between them.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        And the most affected unfortunately will be Africa and poorer countries..like what happened in Sri Lanka

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Yep. The mechanism by which that happens is price. So price rises for food all across the planet (Cough, HNH, cough) with the poorest people and countries getting outbid

          So now we have starvation and political disruption in parts of Africa; and food inflation everywhere else.

          • Gav … are you suggesting the West does not have a military ego the size of the planet and MIC makes squillions by creating fear out of whole cloth – for decades. Does the West even make anything that works anymore from a military aspect other than suck funds from a percent of GDP, yet all the social basics like health and education and life spans goes down the gurgler or worse managed by some PE/Hedge fund.

            WMDs/get Bin Laden [oops wrong country], Iran/Contra, Granada, Panama et al, and now throwing a mix bag of equip with no training, parts/maintenance support, how much is just sold on[????], to one of the most corrupt nations on the planet [hard to imagine but true], and not a pep about all the shelling and demise of civilians south east of the Ukraine since 2014 …. but now … ZOMG … Putin’s ego you say … how about the egos of all the neocons [militant (see Stalin) libertarian wing] post collapse of the USSR to loot the place and the best they can do when push comes to shove with a military peer [not 3rd world] is deploy sanctions that only make life harder on top of everything since the GFC for anyone not in the 20% PMC social strata.

            So much for the rational agent theory/model I guess …

      • There is no food shortages … its been a distribution problem acerbated by market antics and monopolies since Norman Borlaug’s green revolution. How much food, if you want to call some of the corporatist offerings is thrown away, every day, is ludicrous.

        Almonds in Calif, alfalfa in the desert for Saudi steeds, growing stuff in your own country and then ship the water used overseas, all the while burning huge amounts of fossil fuels or sticking them in the ground to burn it. And just so a few mega corps and investors make packet.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Please, it’s been peaceful night without Chicago school chortle…

      • TTP when you have a factual underpinned argument I might listen e.g. the Chicago school is just a front for the pro corporatist agenda. That I summarize the time and space and everything between by just its name and how your low information mind responds too it – is not my drama. More indicative of your own emotional and cognitive position than that of mine.

        The past as an example if I go too high brow I get ***labeled*** as a pseudo intellectual, but if I drop the bar down to some others levels I get ***labeled*** some other derogatory term. Yet I have provided more context to the events of the past and how that has manifested today than anyone else. Yet around here most still just myopically focus on the great numerator generator the markets and never the people that’s actions proceed its function/s.

        It might surprise you that much of what has happened on this blog is reminiscent of the small country church of my youth, spent on summers with the grandparents, and watching its flocks sociopolitical machinations over those years e.g. theological interpretations, top down/national organizational shifts either through direct administrative polices or perceptions on funding/income sources at the local level, which IMO are a direct reflection of the broader ramifications of neoliberalism becoming dominate in the mid 70s as it radically changed individual and social perceptions.

        So to repeat myself again … when you talk to me your not talking to someone that is just stuck in the here and now, with you, your talking to someone that is functioning from – all of it – past and present, yet your stuck. That pointing out the Chicago school dynamic in the run up to all this and your response too it, which then you apply the royal WE shtick too it, says a lot more about you than me kiddo …

    • I would agree that Reagan was the ***front man*** for selling [opining the barn doors] the Milton Friedman Chicago school neoliberal agenda as Liberties and Freedom to the unwashed, don’t forget his cognitive state in his last term, but was propped up, some then give Biden a hard time.

      Yet it was Bill Clinton that really that burned the barn down and salted the ground where it once stood, pay to play, politics became a PR/Marketing driven idpol plaything, Wall St handed the keys to the country, Yugoslavia et al, NAFTA, Brooksley Born and derivatives –

      Born was appointed to the CFTC on April 15, 1994 by President Bill Clinton. Due to litigation against Bankers Trust Company by Procter and Gamble and other corporate clients, Born and her team at the CFTC sought comments on the regulation of over-the-counter derivatives,[3] a first step in the process of writing CFTC regulations to supplement the existing regulations of the Federal Reserve System, the Options Clearing Corporation, and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Born was particularly concerned about swaps, financial instruments that are traded over the counter between banks, insurance companies or other funds or companies, and thus have no transparency except to the two counterparties and the counterparties’ regulators, if any. CFTC regulation was strenuously opposed by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, and by Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.[4] On May 7, 1998, former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt joined Rubin and Greenspan in objecting to the issuance of the CFTC’s concept release. Their response dismissed Born’s analysis and focused on the hypothetical possibility that CFTC regulation of swaps and other OTC derivative instruments could create a “legal uncertainty” regarding such financial instruments, hypothetically reducing the value of the instruments. They argued that the imposition of regulatory costs would “stifle financial innovation” and encourage financial capital to transfer its transactions offshore.[12] The disagreement between Born and the Executive Office’s top economic policy advisors has been described not only as a classic Washington turf war,[8] but also a war of ideologies,[13] insofar as it is possible to argue that Born’s actions were consistent with Keynesian and neoclassical economics while Greenspan, Rubin, Levitt, and Summers consistently espoused neoliberal, and neoconservative policies.[citation needed]

      and was furthered by every President since then …. remember the right squealing about Obama being a socialist/commie anti Christ lmmao … look at him now …

      Then again all these Presidents are just face time actors for media consumption and not those driving the agenda/s, per se Rubin ran Clinton’s economic agenda and yet then you would have to know those that mentored Rubin, and the same for them, not the mention the money/networks/agendas behind all of that over the period in question. Suffice to say one can just look at the distribution of Nobel [in the name of – banking] prizes skewed to this school of economic thought [agency].

  3. haroldusMEMBER

    Boat dinner: Vege sausages and baked beans on toasted buns. Extremely delicious.

    Plus chardy.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        That was only on my mother’s side.
        Oops, you referring to harold.
        Placement of comma.

      • You snob!

        Anyway I’m using up everything in the portable fridge before I have to go back to work. Last night was the tempeh in Kan-Tong sweet and sour.

        Tomorrow will be Linda McCartney 1/4 pounders with woollies burger sauce. And then Friday will be pasta shells, Mutti pesto and woolies kalamatas.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          So, 6th circle and in danger of catching the express all the way down to the 9th

          Well, cheerio old chap. Pip pip and what not 🫡

    • Because after that he will ask for others proceeds of their labour to support his good works in fighting for the side of light[tm] …

      Satan fear = payday ….

  4. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand housing: The (unnecessary and nonsense) Bank of Mum & Dad fiasco …

    When will the government lift the planning ban on the development and construction of affordable housing ? …

    … So … that the young can independently buy homes at or below 3.0 times annual household incomes with sensible mortgage loads at or below 2.5 times … as their parents and grandparents did in earlier decades ? …

    Consumer NZ says the Bank of Mum and Dad is the fifth biggest owner-occupier lender in New Zealand … Gareth Vaughan … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/115563/consumer-nz-says-bank-mum-and-dad-fifth-biggest-owner-occupier-lender-new

    The so-called Bank of Mum and Dad is a major lender in the housing market, ranking fifth after ANZ, ASB, Westpac, and BNZ in terms of loans to owner-occupiers, Consumer NZ says.

    The consumer lobby group estimates the Bank of Mum and Dad (BOMD) has lent $22.6 billion worth of home loans.

    According to Consumer NZ research, 14% of New Zealand families have supported children financially to buy a property, with the average contribution $108,000. This equates to roughly 208,638 parents. The most popular form of assistance is contributing towards a deposit, with 61% of parents assisting this way. Consumer NZ says three out of five parents don’t expect to be repaid.

    In 2002 when the average NZ house price was $186,000, this was equivalent to six times the average income of $29,432 per year. Twenty years later in 2022, the median house price is $890,000, which is more than 15 times the median income of $56,836. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    This Man Is the Father of Modern American Suburbia … VIDEO … Smithsonian Channel

    https://www.si.edu/object/yt_ksmH5OcLQFw

    Following World War 11, William J Levitt created the modern residential production construction industry … supplying new housing of about 80 square metres (as the owners became more affluent they added and expanded them) on 700 square metre lots for about $US 9,000, when the median New York single income was about $US 3,500.

    Even with the massive post – war ‘supply chain’ disruptions at the time !

    The new house and lot price was about 2.5 times SINGLE EARNER income.

    The current housing affordability crisis is a deliberately created political issue.

    A nonsense issue that is totally unnecessary.

    Read and view more …

    https://www.google.com/search?q=william+j+levitt+&ei=671pYsiINNegseMPk6mFMA&ved=0ahUKEwiIquDxn7X3AhVXUGwGHZNUAQYQ4dUDCA4&oq=william+j+levitt+&gs_lcp=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&sclient=gws-wiz