Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A very mixed reaction to the volatility on overnight markets here in Asia with Australian stocks playing catchup with the biggest falls as Chinese markets continue to selloff under global recession and local COVID concerns. The USD remains firm against all the majors although the Australian dollar was able to bounce back a little this afternoon after being sold off so sharply in the last couple of trading sessions. Oil markets are trying to stabilise again with Brent crude still hovering just above the $100USD per barrel level while gold is also struggling following the recent slump below the $1900USD per ounce level, as daily momentum is about to turn negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets are selling off again going into the close with the Shanghai Composite down more than 1% at 2896 points while the Hang Seng Index is actually holding on to be up nearly 0.5% at 19973 points. Japanese stock markets are also stabilising somewhat with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.4% higher at 26700 points while the USDJPY pair remains under pressure as it hovers just below the 128 handle at trailing short term ATR support:

Australian stocks were the worst performers in the region with the ASX200 losing over 2% to start its truncated trading week in poor form, closing at 7318 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has bounce back above the 72 level after being swiftly sold off overnight as traders re-assess the RBA response to tomorrow’s highly anticipated, but late and very inaccurate CPI print:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are playing catchup with each other as the former hopes the late night BTFD team will cross the Atlantic and help out, although they could be stretched thin as the S&P500 four hourly chart shows price unwilling to get back to the previous weekly lows around the 4400 point level:

The economic calendar will focus on the latest US durable goods order print tonight, followed by the CB consumer confidence release.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Did you see that China slammed Sweden for their treatment of Muslims recently?
      Sometimes I wonder if they have a sense of humour (also see Solomon Is.)

      • 😂
        No I missed that, not surprised at all though, their press & spokespersons are mostly satire these days.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I reckon the Chinese have a sense of humour.
        They will be cacking themselves over Australia’s reaction to their Solomon Is. deal…
        and it has not cost them a cent.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      in our defence, 99% of what you write is gibberish; and only a couple of masochists on here even read / respond to anything you write at all (that’s longer than a few words)

      • To be honest 99%+ of what many say around here has no basis in reality and if past bias confirmation is proven false again and again … it must be others at fault and not those that presented or entertained such notions shown to be not only false but misleading ….

          • Prove it. Jawboning without any means to evaluate is just marketing PR … for the lack of evidence.

          • The fact is you can go back and see what I said and see the responses and who said them, then reconciled it to this date and the information I just pointed too.

            As above … some just said some stuff without backing it up or that a few up likes refute verifiable facts.

            Then some cry for being pulled up on it.

        • 99%+ hey. That’s an entire life’s work right there to be able to prove that one statement. Not only do you need to prove the 99%+ but you also need to disprove every statement that makes up that 99%+.

          What was that about bias?

          • I think Skip is on to something considering that 99+ % of comments over the last year have been on covid !

      • Indeed. Like a parking inspector constantly repeating some other peoples’ smarter insights.

        • Please give an example Jake, otherwise its just a throwaway comment.

          Then again I have to remember the early IPA/gold bug days, people bought too much house, sand gropers, boomers, commie/socialists brought globalist free market neoliberalism down on all … punch line is the libertarians that consumed the corporatist PR/Marketing and thought themselves the smart people in the room.

        • Its a pile of something gav … notice how no one actually made any statements one way or the other about JBS T/F and just focused on me. That is the key feature here and not what was said about myself.


    “Interesting question. Did the Chinese government just gain a bit of leverage over the town square?”

    Fck yeah!
    This was my first thought on the news, all he has to do is let “certain” bits of disinformation flourish, not all. I was a bit happier after I read his statement on fake news etc. Until the bit about “ensure there is a human behind every user” which sounds good, until you wonder if it is a way for Xi to know who speaks up against him & CCP, with their laws that state the CCP can go after anyone in the world, this would suit them very nicely & potentially enable critics to be silenced. (eg arrest a couple when they travel overseas & people will start self censoring)

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      At least we still have our health.

      But anyhow, I didn’t look all day because busy and I find I’m down $3.50. Doom mindset works occasionally. Crashing dollar helped no end.

      • I strangely find crashing markets a relief. Because constantly seeing YoY increases makes me more worried about it being unsustainable and that I’m wrong when I see bubbles inflating that they will eventually pop. I just position to weather the storm. Knowing that panic means stuff often is over sold, so just wait for the recovery.

  2. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Lol Albo enjoying a surge in the polls ahead of Scomo,,
    Guess why??
    He’s at home doing nothing!!!!

  3. “The Elon news is crowding out a significantly funnier story: Russia staged a fake bust of alleged Ukrainian Nazi assassins, and the guy tasked with assembling the paraphernalia for the photo bought three copies of The Sims instead of three SIM cards”

    And a wig (a green disco party type) 😂 to go with the naz1 t-shirts that are pristine just out of the packet!

    • Pretty.
      ps “Globally, the Omicron wave still caused an estimated 3 million excess deaths, ca. 6x as many that die from influenza each year.”
      Some interesting stuff in that thread:
      “he growth rate advantage of BA.4 & BA.5 over BA.2 is similar than that of BA.2 over BA.1 and of Delta over Alpha. But with caveat that BA.4 & BA.5 carry 2 mutations in the spike receptor binding domain that are predicted to confer some immune escape.
      Quote Tweet
      Bloom Lab
      · 12 Apr
      Wanted to add details about F486V mutation in the new BA.4 and BA.5 lineages of #Omicron (see nice thread by @Tuliodna below). F486V could lead to more antibody escape from serum elicited by current vaccines / early infections. (1/n)
      The mutations in question, L452R and F486V, were previously selected against, but now have an advantage in a population with high Omicron BA.1 immunity. And hence, will now cause a wave of reinfections.

  4. haroldusMEMBER

    Boat dinner: Kan-Tong Sweet and Sour with Tempeh/Onions/eggplant and broccolini (cheap veggies).

    And chardies.

    “Allez cuisine!”

    • That pay to play/skin in the game moralistic approach to education so investors could expand market share into a critical social good becomes a MBA certificate mill with down the road consequences but they make packet today and hive off risk to society at large down the road …. you say Hugh … another own goal …

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks end sharply lower, accelerating April’s losses ahead of Big Tech earnings … Yahoo Finance

    “Meltdown”: Bank Of America Sounding The Alarm On Collapsing Freight Demand … Zerohedge

    New Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall … US Census

  6. Though of the day …

    Even the supplies of key industrial inputs that are supposedly affected by Brexit (water purification chemicals, medical isotopes etc.) are likely to more affected by sanctioning Russia, which has major basic chemicals and isotope production facilities. Taking a major energy and hard and soft commodities player out and then having all the first world countries bidding against each other for what’s left in the market is going to hurt.

    And yet some thought QTM or wages were the inflationary monster under the bed and must be fought to the death …

    • That’s a fair point. Clearly wage inflation isn’t so much an issue as open markets and easy access to goods is deflationary. Hence a global supply of cheap goods from China really did kill inflation (at least in every day goods) but low rates caused massive asset inflation.

      • Remind me again which sorts pushed the IR pushing on a string market dilemma and now recite incantations to ward off its paradoxes in the real world.

        • If you’re referring to raising rates as not solving anything I agree. I’ve said that here in the comments that the cause of inflation at the moment is less about rates and more about supply dynamics and trade wars, covid restrictions etc.. than it is about IR settings. Although IR settings does lump fuel on the fire for asset appreciation.