Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Its another diversion in risk taking today with Asian stock markets going bullish and bearish in nearly equal fashion. Mainland and offshore Chinese markets are selling off sharply once again, while Japanese bourses are lifting as Yen remains weak against USD. The Australian dollar has paused its bounce back, running out of puff above the 74 cent level versus USD, while oil markets are trying to stabilise again after the recent overnight 5% drop with Brent crude just below the $110USD per barrel level.  Gold is also struggling following the recent profit taking selloff, somewhat stable at the $1950USD per ounce level but daily momentum is about to turn negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets are selling off sharply in the wake of COVID tensions, with the Shanghai Composite closing some 2% lower at 3087 points while the Hang Seng Index has followed suit, down 1.8% to 20570 points. Japanese stock markets continue to bounce higher, with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.2% higher at 27553 points while the USDJPY pair has settled down finally, still holding just above the 128 handle as price action hovers at trailing short term ATR support:

Australian stocks had a solid session with the ASX200 breaking through the 7600 point barrier to close 0.5% higher at 7604 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has not followed through on its recent bounceback, stalled above the 74 handle as a classic swing long play for now runs out of puff:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are again just holding on to their overnight finishing points with the S&P500 four hourly chart still sniffing for a continuation of the breakout above ATR overhead resistance as momentum stays overbought with price action just above last week’s intrasession high:

The economic calendar finally ramps up tonight with the latest Euro core inflation print, some BOE speeches and then US initial jobless claims with a couple speeches by Fed Chair Powell in the mix.

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Comments

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          It was published that Germans sleep 20 minutes less than the English

        • bubbah buddhaMEMBER

          Great story from a Pommie mate in a hotel in Croatia, all tge Germans came down ar 6am n put their towels on the sunloungers all around the pool, claiming them all. Himself n his mate after a night on the lash got fed up and one mornin got up still half cut to catch the breakfast before flakin out at the pool. All loungers were full of towels and empty as everyone was at breakfast or the beach….so they chucked all the towels into the pool, and when Klaus came back irate they told em to F off, who won the war anyway🤣
          They are buggers for hoggin the good spots though!

          • Yeah but …. can he reef a main in difficult weather, prop the main in large swells, or know when its time to chuck the sea chute out – ???? – make old school sailors weep for those with a few bob making a mockery of all that was learned …

      • Have you forgotten the whole – ***head hunting*** – corporate survival of the fittest Homo economicus thingy …. phew that was a dilly … we are all just commodities in a market place seeking to maximize our utility and by dint of it profit … nothing else matters …

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand …

    Its Wall To Wall Inflation In New Zealand! … Martin North … Digital Finance Analytics

    https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/its-wall-to-wall-inflation-in-new-zealand/

    … an essential read …

    World watching NZ housing market as Auckland labelled ‘canary in coal mine’ … Geraden Cann … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128396590/world-watching-nz-housing-market-as-auckland-labelled-canary-in-coal-mine

    International investors are increasingly watching New Zealand’s housing market for signs of trouble and as an indicator of things to come, with one Australian financial services firm labelling Auckland the “canary in the coal mine”.

    High mortgage debts compared to incomes, house price rises that outpaced every other country studied, and the Reserve Bank’s aggressive steps to fight inflation have resulted in New Zealand’s housing market being the one to watch, according to multiple analysts both domestically and across the Tasman.

    Auckland’s unfortunate label came from Barrenjoey, an Australian firm providing insights to banks and investors.

    The firm’s research focused on debt to income ratios (DTIs), and found almost two-fifths of recent Kiwi home loans were lent out at ratios considered high-risk and curtailed by other countries, including the UK and Ireland.

    DTI ratios are calculated by dividing the total debt of a borrower by their gross income, and are a measure of how leveraged a customer is, and therefore how at-risk they are if the cost of servicing their mortgage rises. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Mortgage Measures | Central Bank of Ireland

    https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures

    Demographia International Housing Affordability: All Editions

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

    … When Ireland’s housing bubble burst in 2007, the median multiples / house price to income ratios of its metros (refer Demographia Surveys above) went from 4.7 to 2.8 … putting all its Banks to the wall and requiring about 70 billion euros of bailouts from German financial institutions, that stood to lose the most….

    … New Zealand’s housing across the board is now around 9.0 median multiple / house price to income according to Interest Co NZ …

    • The real question is what set up the bubble in the first place and not that it happened or went bust.

      The next thing to consider is after the bust was over and building resumed why was it they could now not find the labour they wanted, and how that effected the speed of the recovery.

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    “Solomon Islands MP defends military pact with China by comparing it to secretive Pine Gap facility in NT”

    Note this utterance by a Solomon islander MP (and former PM) was first put out there by CCP representatives some time ago when discussing their interest in the Solomon islands

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/china-solomon-islands-agreement-australia/101005022

    Good old leave it to the private sector LNP delivering for the CCP again,…and again,…and again.
    I mean Its a bit rich calling out Solomon Islander MPs for taking CCP back handers and advancing Chinese interests when LNP cnts like that Robb Traitor does the same thing selling a big portion of Darwin harbour to some CCP front company for few, post politics, bags of gold.

    But hey!, I hear those LNP voting dumb cnts saying,…the LNP stops the boats!

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            It’s some small flood prone town in SE Queensland.
            I don’t get it either Gav.

          • Naval base fkwith … your a tool …

            Ones been operational for yonks and the other a metal pre disposition for libertarians …

            Dude just pony up and pop over to the Ukraine and stop having spastic moments .. fight for the dream kid …

          • You’re* a tool. If we are being pedantic. I have no problem with US naval base being here. They are a long standing ally, China is a dictatorship and authoritarian state. Big difference, you think after what’s happening in the Ukraine we shouldn’t be worried? If so you’re more naive than I thought. Must be that Bernays Chicago Boys thingy.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Mods, there is specific contravention of the comments rules above? Why do you allow it?

            https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/comment-rules/

            General Terms and Conditions relating to postings

            The following rules are obligatory on any person wishing to post any material whatsoever on this or any associated site.

            No material shall be posted which is defamatory or abusive.
            No material may be posted which is obscene or vulgar.
            No material may be posted which is in contempt of court, in breach of any privacy provisions, in breach of any confidence or court order or which otherwise violates any law.
            No material may be posted which threatens, intimidates or harasses any person.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Mods, there is specific contravention of the comments rules above. Why do you allow it?

            https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/comment-rules/

            General Terms and Conditions relating to postings

            The following rules are obligatory on any person wishing to post any material whatsoever on this or any associated site.

            No material shall be posted which is defamatory or abusive.
            No material may be posted which is obscene or vulgar.
            No material may be posted which is in contempt of court, in breach of any privacy provisions, in breach of any confidence or court order or which otherwise violates any law.
            No material may be posted which threatens, intimidates or harasses any person.

          • @Harry, I’m not too worried about it, just think he has a chip on his shoulder and should play the ball not the player.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Oh so now I’m supposed to stop using the “C bomb”

            How about you stop trying to control me all the time Harry.
            🥺

          • Hilarious when one considers how quite a few rolled for years and years … when others presented information and views which refuted others ideas/beliefs. Now we’re treated to the top shelf brand of cog-dis over the Solomon’s and red-lines thingy, yet its a completely different story in the Ukrainian situation after decades of ignored/broken treaties and the Atlantic sorts turning it into some corporatist acid trip plaything. Lmmao it was just penalized not long ago for not opening up more Ag to privatization aka Corporate take over aka more looting for a few absentee investors half way around the globe that don’t give a damn about its citizens or their sovereignty.

            Lmmao … what did Madeleine Albright say about dead kids and what did she move onto after her “Public” service, Biden family antics, Ukrainian guest workers [slaves] in say the U.K., anyone remember the decades old organ harvesting of this region for Western betters, and best for last the huge export of sex workers and surrogate babies …. its all about democracy vs autocracy skippy …. fkmedead …

          • This thread got a bit wild. Skip, I don’t see how abuse helps.
            The reality is the SI and others in the region are being courted by China. If they want to jump into bed with the CCP then ultimately, that’s their business. Perhaps we may not have been able to stop this deal or another like it in the region given China’s growing might/influence and the corruption evident. The point is we shouldn’t have abandoned the playing field as we have under this government.

          • Thanks Alex, agree.

            Now we’re treated to the top shelf brand of cog-dis over the Solomon’s and red-lines thingy, yet its a completely different story in the Ukrainian situation after decades of ignored/broken treaties and the Atlantic sorts turning it into some corporatist acid trip plaything. Lmmao it was just penalized not long ago for not opening up more Ag to privatization aka Corporate take over aka more looting for a few absentee investors half way around the globe that don’t give a damn about its citizens or their sovereignty.

            Whilst this may be true, the problem is Russia and Putin are not better are they? I mean a handful of Oligarchs have plundered and pillaged the natural resources of Russia for their own benefit whilst leaving average Russian’s in the cold, not to mention assassinated anyone who challenges them either via radiation poisoning or gun shot to the head or simply confiscate their money / assets and throw them into a Kangaroo court for made up crimes and lock them away.

            Is the US better with Guantanamo prison? No, and I don’t support that either, do I support Crony Capitalism? No, do I support Corporate Interests running wild? No. But at least Western Democracy is more open to reform and change. Putin is part of the problem, not a solution, especially when you consider the misinformation his form of Government (if you can call it that) puts out on multiple topics to continue to divide the West and Western Democracies.

            I’d rather be under the boot of Capitalism than Autocracy and the CCP, North Korea and Russia.

          • AlexD

            The reality is all these nations have had past experiences with Atlantic nations dating back to pre colonialism – too the here and now. On top of that China is not doing anything all the others have past and present in this regard. So if any nation decides to enter treaties or other deals why is it automatically assumed/projected its all about global domination and enslavement to the chinaman …. gnashing of teeth and pulling hair displays ….

            Seriously when is the last time China invaded another country or sent its troops off on some faraway place to secure its investors expectations. Its like the book – War is a Racket – went right over some peoples heads or that was a long long time ago and now everyone plays nice … pinky swear …

            The whole ***CCP*** atheist anti property rights red book hysteria is just ludicrous and the really funny bit is its more Post WWII Capitalistic dualism than the U.S. et al has been increasingly since the mid 70s e.g. rich people don’t set govenment agendas or public policy. BTW how anyone could fat finger China for corruption after the GFC in America need to check their timing and headset, might be a bit off …

            @Gavin

            You obviously suffer from a low information dilemma and past ideological hangover. Firstly there are – ZERO – Oligarchs in Russia, miss applied terminology IMO. You see Oligarchs are wealthy individuals that tell government what they collectively want and its the governments job to sell it to the unwashed. Both in Russia’s and China’s case this is wildly inaccurate as the State wields the ultimate political power vs the Plutocracy that has overtaken most of the Atlantic nations. Reconcile the 600+ billionaires in the U.S. and how both Russia and China have dealt with that vexing social issue that is reminiscent with what FDR had to do after the Business Plot attempted coup and then the Pecora commission.

            In Russia’s case, specifically, the people you call Oligarchs were picked by the U.S. Harvard Boys during Gorbies day, having seen the looting of his nations resources with little thought to the citizens of Russia Gorbie in his last days brought Putin in as sort of a Mea Culpa. First thing Putin did was kick out the foreign Harvard Boys and take on the people they picked to run various monopolies as long as the West got the cut they demanded. It was a bit of a scrap and after a few scalps all the rest fell into line aka Russia first, don’t mess with mother, otherwise have a good time in the international markets.

            Now post neoliberalism becoming dominate in the U.S. and U.K. there has been a steady decline in personal rights, not to be confused with liberties and freedoms, something about money and scale, not to mention health, opportunity, life span, well being, where on medical event can pauperize a once good family to destitute and then endlessly means tested for any support.

            Its very clear to me that your support for Crypto is ideologically based and as such puts a spot light on you for a pro market driven society aka privatize everything some the market can price it and absentee investors can squeeze unearned income/profit from the most vulnerable.

          • @Skip – thanks for that extra perspective and details. It has given me some things to consider. But keep in mind life span of average Russian is far lower than Western countries (in many cases) and Putin is not accountable to anyone, or able to be removed as head of state. Also I cannot condone any of what’s going on right now in terms of innocent people being slaughtered as justified.

          • Russia’s dramas with longevity started with the Harvard boys, ffs the bonds and the implosion of LTCM had nothing to do with per se something intrinsic with the Russian region, since then its been relentlessly sanction and pushed it to a semi state of autocracy because of all the Lucie football on any past agreements.

            What part escapes you that Thatcher on her first cabinet meeting help Hayek’s book up and said this is who we are and what we will do befuddles you.

          • “BTW how anyone could fat finger China for corruption after the GFC in America need to check their timing and headset, might be a bit off …”
            On this (and others) we are in furious agreement. What you do not acknowledge and as Gav has alluded to, how many “Occupy movement” protestors got shot after the GFC? This leader for life thing is no minor matter….

          • @AlexD …

            Occupy members shot – ???? – dude there was a 14 city paramilitary crack down with plants in the groups, people did die – remember the ex ranger that got sconed in the head just standing in front of the paramilitary line with a gas canister in Oakland, not to mention the ketteling and then zip tied and forced to sit for hours on end, ultimately assembly lined court room processing which then puts you into the criminal legal system across the entire U.S. and how that will effect not only job prospects [working for anyone with a government contract et al] but your credit availability or show up on every traffic stop …

            Please show me where these other nations have done anything like that, especially since everyone that was part of why the GFC occurred not only was made whole but was handed even more wealth – largest transfer of wealth upwards in modernity.

            Whooboy … I’m not into the fanboy projections about any nation, only look at the concrete benefits for citizens after considering the bigger geopolitical back drop. On that note the U.S. and the U.K. are going backwards hard, I mean part of neoliberalism was to roll back all the FDR social programs and make it a plutocracy – see the Citi memo …. eh … lmmao Powell memo – Creel Commission … etc etc etc

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        There are ‘red lines’ that cannot be cross without military retaliation, and a Chinese military base on Solomon Islands is one of them. Once ScoMo is replaced by someone with a brain, there will be a reckoning, and it won’t be pretty. Solomon Islands will become another Haiti : a perpetual failed state.

          • For a guy that publicly states they are a dead set Keynesian [not that the man was pro such a concept] and then promotes neoclassical dogma full of bad maths and physics I take your umbrage as a sign of honor.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      And I’m farkn thankful the boats got stopped otherwise we would have been swamped with dagoes by now!!

    • True. I also things some of the island nations will look at how we f***** over Timor and think the Aussie government are not the fair dinkum guys they theory to make out. Whoever wins the election should make going there and apologising to Hoarte and putting things right & paying them their fair share of gas revenues we’ve robbed to show them & the pacific nations we are legit. Else it could turn out that one act will have cost us more than we can calculate, if it hasn’t already. The Chinese would be using that tell illustrate we can’t be trusted anymore than the CCP

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Well, with the image of an Aussie auction in mind. Australia got outbid in the auction of pacific Islands, yet again by a Chinese investor

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yep and this is why the LNP will always sell out the Australian people as the essence of being a Tory is to always be sucking the d!ck that possesses the most cash.
        Look at the way they demonise welfare recipients, the poor and the renter class. As a higher percentage of the population becomes thus watch those LNP cnts obsequiously sell us out more and more to those who wield the biggest cheque book.
        They don’t care if the cheques come from Western corporations or fake commies. Just look at Robb.
        Same goes for those propagandist who call themselves journalists. Everyone wants to be in that winning investor class club.
        But Giving a fk about Australian citizens and representing their interests ain’t gunna get you in that, me, me, me money bags me club.

        • ermo, read the “Dead Hand Series” – it’s a bunch of books to give you some Tory insight. lol, these people are connected to the thieves of the common (bunch of Normans, Stuarts and Tudors + coat tailers). Start with “The Profits of Religion”.

    • It is classic LNP sellout the nations security for business interests.
      Remember this is the same party that planned to hand the country to the Japanese above the Brisbane line.

  3. bubbah buddhaMEMBER

    Olympian Emma McKeon says rules allowing transgender athletes to compete need to be ‘fair’
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/emma-mckeon-transgender-comments/101005456

    How dare she raise this!
    I posted this response too late in response to the cancelled LNP Deves debate yesterday but its all the more apt after that article, humourously hits the nail on the head,costume n all:

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uBSqiTLldXY&feature=share

    Queue the zealots…

    • Any bloke willing to squeeze his tackle into a 1-piece deserves a start in the Women’s 50 metres Freestyle.

    • “I should be able to compete while full of performance enhancing drugs because I identify as a clean athlete.”
      God I hate this postmodernist BS world where objectivity is now deemed offensive.

    • In this world of equality lets remove the gender thing altogether and just have one 50m race.

  4. bubbah buddhaMEMBER

    Agreed, so why is a very tiny minority hijacking the show.
    Could it be something to do with the demographics of the media industry and politics? No welts there.
    Im too busy tryin to pay bills however we constantly have brave new ‘morals’ thrust upon us and are told you got to think this way, or else…I can judge the facts and decide for myself thank you, and everyones welcome to disagree without pillory.
    Most people can call bull and see its detrimental to and undermines balanced social norms for the sake of a tiny majority empowered to the point of a Russian Commisar in 1943… agree with me and move forward, or else

  5. “An official notice issued to residents told them to pack their belongings and leave their wardrobe doors open. They were also told to leave open the front door of their home. Images on social media of people queuing with packed suitcases at night-time showed the scale of the operation. ”
    It’s like the middle ages! Almost like they literally have no idea of how the virus spreads or survives.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61160210

  6. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    Albanese tests positive to COVID, election campaign goes virtual

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-tests-positive-to-covid-election-campaign-plans-on-hold-20220421-p5af8u.html
    Updated April 21, 2022 — 8.34pmfirst published at 6.41pm

    Labor leader Anthony Albanese will fight the election campaign from his Sydney home after testing positive for COVID-19 and going into isolation for seven days, forcing radical changes to his campaign strategy and giving key frontbenchers a bigger role.

    Albanese will intensify media appearances in a bid to keep the Labor campaign in the national spotlight through radio, television and online interviews from home, with close aides saying he remains in good health.

    Labor colleagues said he may have even more time for talkback radio and other media given the forced end to his travel schedule around the country, although the strategy depends on how his health holds up over the week ahead.

    In the same way Prime Minister Scott Morrison appeared at press conferences on a television screen while in isolation in The Lodge, the Labor leader will draw on a contingency plan.

    Morrison, who shook hands with Albanese before Wednesday night’s debate at the Gabba but previously contracted COVID in March, said he hoped his opponent would not suffer any serious symptoms.

    “I wish Anthony Albanese all the best for his recovery after testing positive to COVID,” the prime minister wrote on Twitter.

    “Everyone’s experience with COVID is different and as Labor’s campaign continues, I hope he does not experience any serious symptoms.”

    There is also talk of Labor deputy leader Richard Marles taking a greater role in the campaign to replace Albanese at key events along with other frontbenchers.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Albo should do Some Roosevelt style Fireside chats on the radio but call them Ventilator side chats.
      If he can put on a good act of struggling through respiratory distress it should pull some good sympathy vote numbers.
      😉

  7. Well at least if Albo is taken out for 7 or so days ALP can wheel out thier other star performers to keep the election campaign going. Can’t see any problems there just wheel them out.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Sri Lanka …

    … Why is politics so often the poverty creation business … food … housing … whatever ? …

    ‘It will be hard to find a farmer left’: Sri Lanka reels from rash fertiliser ban … Hannah Ellis-Petersen … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/20/sri-lanka-fertiliser-ban-president-rajapaksa-farmers-harvests-collapse

    Harvests have collapsed, and the way President Rajapaksa introduced the policy angered even organic farmers. …

    … “If things go on like this, in the future it will be hard to find a farmer left in Sri Lanka,” said Niluka Dilrukshi, 34, a rice paddy farmer.

    Sri Lanka is grappling with the worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948, and foreign currency reserves sit at their lowest level on record due to what many see as gross economic mismanagement by the government. There is barely a citizen of this south Asian island who hasn’t felt the bite of catastrophic inflation and fuel, food and medicine shortages in recent weeks. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Sri Lanka facing imminent threat of starvation, senior politician warns … Hannah Ellis-Petersen … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/sri-lanka-facing-imminent-threat-of-starvation-senior-politician-warns

    Sri Lanka police open fire at protesters; 1 dead, 13 injured … Krishan Francis … Associated Press / Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/300569206/sri-lanka-police-open-fire-at-protesters-1-dead-13-injured

    The Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka … Asianometry … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g70ncHcaBiE

  9. Israel adds China’s yuan for the first time ever while cutting its dollar holdings in biggest currency reshuffle in a decade: https://twitter.com/i/events/1517052230163128323

    The move is portrayed as being meant to “diversify its reserve allocations and lengthen its investment horizon” but lets face it, Israel has to see the writing on the wall when it sees that the western bloc is willing to just seize whatever assets it can grab and freeze the use of others when relations sour. H/T some dude

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Israel sees what is coming and knows who has engineered Chinas raise. US Corporate plutocracy is responsible for transferring western manufacturing capacity to China AND giving them access to western consumers.
      Now we are beginning to reap the whirlwind Israel is hedging her bets.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Then that kinda makes you part of the problem too Gav.
        It’s our governance by Plutocracy and its virtual parliament of global capital flows that has us on the cusp of totally Discarded democracy And authoritarian rule for all.
        The default position of civilisation for its, almost, entire history.

        • Yeah I thought the same when I saw it earlier. What part have some blinkered ideologically challenged people missed about all Crypto being an asset class, furthermore that has zero underlining physical property or income flows attached to it. It is probably the height of what Marx was banging on about when he theorized that the capitalist would go from M-C-M and ultimately M-M without any production affixed to it.

          That’s not to say it can be used as money just like coupons, flyer points, et al, but a currency it is not lmmao …