Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar plunges toward two year low before RBA hike

Asian stock markets continued in mixed fashion with mainland Chinese markets remaining under pressure with risk sentiment only positive in Japanese shares as Yen continues to sell off against USD. The Australian dollar has bounced back with a look-see above the 74 cent level versus USD, while oil markets are trying to stabilise after the overnight 5% drop. Gold is suffering from the recent profit taking selloff, now heading below the $1950USD per ounce level with daily momentum about to turn negative:

Mainland Chinese share markets remain quite unsettled, with the Shanghai Composite closing some 1.4% lower at 3149 points while the Hang Seng Index has slipped instead of slumping again, falling just 0.3% to finish at 20963 points. Japanese stock markets however continued to bounce higher, lifted by a very weak Yen with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.9% higher at 27217 points while the USDJPY pair has taken back a tiny bit of its overnight gains, still well above the 128 handle and well overbought with price action a long way from its trendline:

Australian stocks put in a good start with the ASX200 initially breaking through the 7600 point barrier but eventually closed with a scratch session, finishing at 7569 points, while the Australian dollar has followed through on its recent bounceback, climbing back above the 74 handle in a classic swing long play:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are holding on to their overnight positions with the S&P500 four hourly chart still sniffing for a breakout above ATR overhead resistance as momentum finally switches to a positive setting, despite the falls in Netflix:

The economic calendar is again a bit quiet tonight, with US existing home sales plus a few Fed speeches to watch out for.


      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        They should have hiked a month or two ago, but either they believed its “transitory” or they are involved politically and didn’t want to affect ScoMo’s re-election

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Have you raised your rates Ermo? , we need everyone to participate in this inflation

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          About 20% more than before Covid.
          I’m still told I’m cheap by many customers and nearly always win my Quotes.
          I’m also knocking back more work I don’t want (Roof work, Unit work and jobs too far from Ermo!)

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Yep I often wonder about all the extra shyte I could buy if Only I was more a cnt of a bloke like you Reusa.
            I’d Probably have a “higher number” as well.

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            @ermo but your self-respect is priceless so ignore reusa’s can-do LNP capitalism rubbish,

          • ”@ermo but your self-respect is priceless so ignore reusa’s can-do LNP capitalism rubbish,”
            Indeed. Principles have always had a price. Whenever you meet someone that values material wealth and possession above all else, you should be concerned.

          • @alexd but have you noticed those guys are often the ones telling the rest of us what to do? They aren’t nice but not stupid. And positively reinforced by our current setup, if not throughout all history.

          • @alexd but have you noticed those guys are often the ones telling the rest of us what to do? They aren’t nice but not stupid. And positively reinforced by our current setup, if not throughout all history.

            Absolutely brother but, that’s no reason to surrender to them. We can still fight back. The great truism of our time is that if you allow rewards to accrue to certain behaviours, you encourage them. Just look up the research on expectancy theory if you don’t believe me. It is then we can all see the true role of government, which is to define those behaviours that deliver a greater social good. Markets and therefore capitalism, are therefore catastrophic without the needed government leadership. That role was clearly cemented in the industrial revolution and unfortunately, it has been forgotten.

          • “if you allow rewards to accrue to certain behaviours, you encourage them.

            See Gresham Law/Dynamic

    • 1st paragraph: “expect significant and continuous price rises … as the war in Ukraine and fresh lockdowns in China batter the world’s supply chains.” Seems a pretty straightforward explanation.

    • This is going to haunt Scummo.
      A chinese naval base not far from Cairns is NOT a confected culture war issue designed for electoral purposes.
      It is a very nasty reality that reflects very poorly on Scummo’s inaction after being warned on this issue in August last year.

      • You would think so but Sky News interviews after the debate had a few people still listening to the marketing spin of ScoMo.

        • I think he a the Treasurer have both been picking their negative headlines recently and feeding them to the press. Control the narrative, pick slightly naughty issues to drown out any big ones. Scomo and the anti political correctness candidate and the Treasurer with the charity support “controversy”, like the Bush drink driving charge – controversy but actually vote winning.

  1. Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

    Ladies and Gents.

    I am thinking of getting together a podcast of the MB community so we can get a collective – ‘this is a snapshot of what the punters of Australia think are important in the lead up to the 2022 election’

    Anyone interested can you whizz an email to

    [email protected]

    My preference .would be to do it by skype of Microsoft teams ………

    The questions – without getting your real names but only your MB names – I am looking at would be

    Where are you? (eg burbs of Sydney, Adelaide Hills)

    What is your demographic? (eg, aged male)

    What do you think are the important issues of this campaign? Do you think they are getting an airing?

    What are your hopes for Australia?

    Do you think the politics and policy we have had in the last decade have bee supportive of a better future?

    What do you think the incoming (or reelected) government most needs to do?

    Who do you think will win the election?

    What do you think it will do?

    What are your thoughts about Australia’s media?

    What are your thoughts about this election campaign?

    Whaddya reckon?

    • I just reckon the country is ungovernable with the current media,.
      How many “worst PMs/governments” in consecutive order can we have before people start to cotton on that a longer period constant is driving it.

      • Grand Funk RailroadMEMBER

        I tend firmly to the view that the media is a large part of Australia’s malaise. But I also think it central to the malaise of most of the developed world. I dont think there is a news media entity anywhere that hasnt seen its credibility coughed up with the demise of ‘print’ media and the trashing of TV news media – TV news and ‘print’ are to the media world what ballet is to art – a dead form kept alive for the sake of ritual. Australia is a standout case of having a very small (per capita) media space, and that space in Australia is far too concentrated.

        The complete inability of Australian politics, aided and facilitated by the mainstream media, to even mention immigration as part of an economic dynamic, or even encompass meaningful discussion of house prices, taxes, economic malinvestment, energy, superannuation etc etc etc, really crafts a dictatorship of dullards on the one hand, but on the other it also nourishes and metastasizes a profound suspicion of almost all forms of communication – from our ‘elites’ for starters, but also more broadly – which makes ordinary people ask themselves when considering anything put to them of ‘What arent we being told?’ ‘Who is getting a benefit from what is being sold to me as a ‘good’?’ and ‘Where is data in our public discourse?’ – that all comes back to our politicians not being questioned or addressing issues which ordinary people want addressed and filling in the void with vast mountains of utter ‘Who gives a…..?’ which alienates people and depresses.

        You couldnt have the political discrediting of both sides of politics Australia has – and I certainly think the Liberal National Government from 2013 to now is the worst in this country’s history, and that it needs to be booted from office – without the media having been trashed the way Australia’s has. I know quite a lot of journalists and they will nearly all acknowledge that if you chat with them, but they cant bring it out in their media space. The cosy duopoly of print and the pampered swill pit of the old TV networks simply meant they became inward focussed and risk averse long before Google and Facebook and the internet more generally arrived to feast upon them. Then of course there is an entire global discourse which is actively suppressed. I find myself hoping that some form of dynamic smasher comes along to give Google and Facebook the reaming they need too, to shunt them from being the State aligned psychopathy promoting data rentiers they are in 2022.

        • Yes, impossible for small parties and true ( unbacked independents ) to get any media attention.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Without addressing concentrated media ownership and control there can be no real expectation of democratic accountability or censure of our ruling/establishment class.
        It’s so much worse now than what it was when this was made,

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          Interesting that Kevin Rudd been advocating exactly what you said , I think mainly because he believes his image was trashed by media right before his knifing

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            He is simply observing and commenting on the political reality we live under.
            It’s frightening how few people see this reality.

      • The constant isn’t the media, or the deep state, it’s us. Until we get involved, even to the point were families are riven by differences of political opinion, no major issue will be resolved or even tabled. This will not occur until there is widespread suffering, caused either by war or financial crisis. On the bright side, both are on the cards.

      • “I just reckon the country is ungovernable with the current media,.”
        You nailed it…

    • Excuse my honesty but Australian’s have become a bunch of cowards.
      we’re scared of a world that’s slipped from our control, we’re scared of our own shadows, it’s not a country that I can associate with, I feel genuine shame.
      Our “leaders” what can I say, they “don’t hold the hose” have never held the hose, will never hold the hose.
      But what can you expect from a society that values shelter above labour, Investment above knowledge/capability, we’re quickly becoming a F’ing joke of a nation.
      Please, pretty please Uncle Sam, rescue us from our own incompetence and that big bad Xi Dada, you see we’re scared. Please Pretty please …with sugar on top…

    • Pretty much agree with everything you’ve said. I’d be happy to share my thoughts re: upcoming election on your podcast if you’ll have me.

    • Some people obviously didn’t get the memo from the likes of Fishing72 and Boomengineering…’s just a fancy cold, dude.

      If/when a truly nasty variant lands, the relaxation of protocols and public standards, driven largely by the vested interests of private profit, will ensure it’s out and about without a chain.

      I try to be optimistic…I have made some arrangements for a holiday in NZ come August…but suspect I will be thwarted by something that appears to be a lockdown, but can’t possibly be called that by political cadres.

      Hence……everything refundable to close-by travel date.

      On the bright mrs is a nurse. I am hedging my potential outlays with the prospect she will be offered a sh1tload of overtime as winter progresses…..

  2. Matt Kean owned that lightweight Ben Fordham on 2GB this morning. Fordham had been going off saying that Kean was a coward for avoiding him and only appearing on the ABC so Kean went on this morning. Fordham ranted and raved about how Kean must hate fairness for women (he might have even thrown in a “define a woman for me” gotcha).

    Fordham then pivoted to how Kean should stick to his day job rather than talk about Katherine Deves in the press and Kean then calmly pointed out that Fordham had actually asked him onto the show to specifically talk about the Deves issue.

  3. The first “debate” is on tonight but only if you have access to Sky News.

    I have a feeling, and I might be wrong on this, that the Sky commentators are going to call the debate for Morrison.

    Triguboff: ‘Appreciate unit developers’
    Meriton boss Harry Triguboff wants the government to aid rental builders.

      • I can’t remember the full story but he modified it to deliver high torque at low revs, helped with durability in long rally. There’s a video on that channel that describes it. He’s got a great mind.