Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having a mixed restart after the Easter break with mainland and offshore Chinese markets remaining under pressure with risk sentiment also souring as European markets open. The Australian dollar has bounced back after its week’s long selloff, almost lifting back above the 74 cent level versus USD, while the USDJPY pair is bursting higher, having made another  a two decade high. Oil markets are trying to stabilise after a surge at the start of the week that saw Brent lift above the $110USD per barrel level, while gold is vainly trying to push higher, almost ready to crack the $2000USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese share markets remain unsettled, with the Shanghai Composite scraping in with a scratch session to close at 3194 points while the Hang Seng Index has slumped again, falling more than 2% to finish at 20987 points. Japanese stock markets however are bouncing higher, lifted by a very weak Yen with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% higher at 26985 points while the USDJPY pair has also broken out yet again, now surging above the 128 handle:

Australian stocks were able to put in a good jumpstart to the truncated trading week with the ASX200 closing 0.5% higher at 7565 points, while the Australian dollar has bounced back after a long decline, currently pushing up towards the 74 handle in a classic swing long play:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are retracing after being higher earlier with the S&P500 four hourly chart still vainly looking to make a bottom pattern here but finding a lot of overhead resistance as momentum remains oversold and ready to keep going down:

The economic calendar is pretty quiet tonight with US housing starts and a few peripheral Fed speeches.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • Easy, default and let Dog sort them out! That’s gonna throw a cat amongst the pigeons!

      You don’t start a game of chicken if you’re not prepared to go >there<

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      All Russian assets in the West are already frozen, and it’s not like Putin can borrow anymore money from the West while he is alive. What is the downside to defaulting?

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        You are right, but whom are they going to default on, and how it’ll affect the others?

        • It will effect others by highlighting your assets are not safe in the Atlantic domain … so you might want to consider other options …

          Stealing 300B large and talking out the side of ones mouth about some notion of a hard money default is setting up the pins …

        • It’ll spook the markets. Though you’d think that it should have been considered a likely event once the sanctions started being implemented. Does it lead to other defaults and who are they going to hang out to dry should it trigger anything?

          There’s a short history of booms and busts since the 1800s in Trade Wars are Class Wars. Even back then a South American country sneezing could give Europe a nasty cold. And even though there was money creation and speculation occurring it was nothing on what we’ve been seeing since 2008.

          Does Russia defaulting effect China? That’d by my guess at the bad scenario. China is struggling with its property and omicron. However it’s still pulling a massive surplus due to collapsed internal demand. I’ve no idea. I’ll wait until Michael Pettis explains it all in a tweet thread.

          • It’s ok, China will start a war to distract the populace from internal problems. The problem is, they will invade Australia.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Youngsters in general = H A, the vacinations are working. Seen it all befote in the steroid faternity.
      Who wins in a court case, solicitors.
      Who wins between virus and patients , big pharma.
      You can hear Rockefeller laughing from his grave.

    • Surprise surprise, 50 yo dies from a HA, gee, earth shattering!

      FGS, speak to your GP, nothing new or unusual about that, except you’re now paying attention to something you wouldn’t have before.

  1. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Had a flash of scomo on the telly tonight hammering Albo about …..”what it takes to run the country “

    ….post election ……

    …I don’t run the country mate !…………ask the developers, the miners and the gas extractors ……

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Just before an election? They only did it once before and it took out John Howard. SkyNews says it’ll only happen in June.

    • Good thing we didn’t encourage people to take out but loans for buying houses during a pandemic and tell them rates would be low for 4 or so years. Lol.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Planned dawn patrol thawthed.
      Getting s bit like those who wouldn’t enter the water when it rained in case they got wet.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        It’s more annoyance at getting the boards on and of the roof and changing in the car park that makes the rain a surf stopper.
        I happily suffered sore throats and ear infections surfing Curl Curl before the deep ocean sewerage outfalls were installed.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Yep we did didn’t we
          Surfed Deadmans by my myself for over 20 yrs near the outfall pipe, something to behold blind mullets and modess pads floating past with the 250mm thick throth.