Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are bouncing back although mainland Chinese markets remain under pressure with risk sentiment rebounding on European markets. The Australian dollar has continued to selloff, still holding barely at the 74 cent level versus USD, while the USDJPY pair makes a two decade high. Oil markets are trying to stabilise with both markers now back above the critical $100USD per barrel level after a near 6% rise overnight, while gold continues to push higher, now at $1970USD per ounce. Bitcoin has crumbled once again, now pushing below the $40K level and looking to break for a new monthly low:

Mainland Chinese share markets remain unsettled with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.4% to 3200 points while the Hang Seng Index has managed a scratch session to finish at 21302 points. Japanese stock markets however are putting in a big bounce after lots of selling recently with the Nikkei 225 closing nearly 2% higher at 26843 points while the USDJPY pair has also broken out yet again, now at a two decade high above the 126 handle:

Australian stocks were able to put in a mild jump, with the ASX200 closing 0.4% higher at 7479 points, still remaining well below the key 7500 point level, while the Australian dollar has continued to pullback its nascent breakout from last night, now almost gone as it remains anchored at the 74 handle:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are lifting higher with the latter doing better, up 0.7% with the S&P500 four hourly chart still vainly looking to make a bottom pattern here. The 4500 point level is now a distant memory as price retraces back down to monthly support with momentum remaining oversold and ready to keep going down:

The economic calendar includes UK core inflation and US PPI prints.

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Comments

    • You really have it bad gav … whats the go with that – ???? – some sort of PDS thingy ….

      P.S. its just another case of watching someone go pop over something that otherwise would be rational …

        • About what gav, I pointed out the flaws of Trump contra the breathers beliefs of draining the swamp shtick. What if Putin is Russia’s FDR and an anti globalist davos man – ???? – you know everything people like you wobble on about otherwise.

          • You’re conflating things and making assumptions about my stance on things. I’m pointing out that Finland is a country that clearly hopes for the best but prepares for the worst. Having been invaded once they have never forgotten the fact that you can never be too prepared for a bad actor next door. So they have massive fuel supplies, food storage, commander centres under 25m of granite etc..

            Now contrast that mentality with Australia’s where we have about a week supply of fuel in reserve and would be completely unprepared for an invasion etc.

            Our politicians and leaders are too short term thinking. It’s a bit like trying to get healthy once you’ve had your first heart attack rather than living a healthy lifestyle to prevent ever having said heart attack. Make sense?

          • Naw mate you said Putin should be taken out regardless of everything in the lead up. That you don’t know that stuff is not an excuse.

          • Putin should be taken out and I stand by it, he’s responsible for the suffering of many many people, poisons opponents or has them bumped off, and threatening the world with nuclear war. What part of Putin is redeemable to you? Or are you just trying to start a sh!t fight like usual?

          • Hilarious guys … seriously …

            What part have you missed after 2014 alone and the endless suffering caused by far right groups against the Dombas regions by shelling and all supported by NATO/U.S. Now lets highlight how the Ukraine was the most corrupt nation for thousands of miles as the wind blows, defaulted to Russia on billions, steals gas, IMF won’t even touch it, largest exporter of surrogate kids, largest supplier of female sex trade to the west, or basically a Libertarian wet dream and at the end of the day did everything possible to force Russia hand after the comments about joining NATO and nukes publicly.

            Going to be interesting to see what kinda international party they were having in the steel works and how that all plays out …

    • The sad thing is that most politicians are actually better than we make them out to be. The problem is that the reporting around them, and lazy commentary deriding them for the party they are associated with and our lazy take on that party. We view and discuss it like wrestling instead of politics. Heroes and villains based on the news cycle and below par opinion pieces. The general tenor around politics is a race to the bottom, and not in the fun way that a night out can end in the gutter with a bunch of people you’ve never met before.

        • I’m hardly going to recount a night like that on a forum like this. I will say that time and space were rather variable and dragons are far friendlier than you’d think.

        • More seriously, I’ve had occasional dealings and have anecdata from others. The current system incentivises poor behavior and not always the best candidates. However they are generally more capable than they come across as. Yet it’s a race to the bottom in so many aspects. Unfortunately the general population suffers most. That’s why I don’t really have a beef with the players but the game, including the media. Clean that up and the riff raff that end up hanging around the neighborhood end up shifting elsewhere.

          • It’s just Angus Taylor giving everybody else a bad name.
            On the few and brief occasions when I’ve had anything to do with the breed, I am astounded at how hard they work. Wouldn’t touch it for quids.

          • Definitely. The loss of privacy and the over reaction to everything would drive me batty. you need a sincere drive, a view if it as a stepping stone, or a personality disorder to even consider it.

      • File under politicians in the neoliberal epoch … BTW did you see that Gridiron club thingy in the states … whooboy …

          • How absurdly ridiculous for a bunch of wankers to attend a elite social event to show the unwashed the coast is clear and then a big slice of them get infected, and then go for walkies at more events after they start dropping like fly’s.

            https://twitter.com/brooklyncybele/status/1513209638057095175

            Clubs lmmao … your an Australian and would not be allowed in many of the clubs I attended back in the day as a provincial backwater curiosity, you could work on the yacht, at the club, golf or ski resort, but never ever be a member …

          • Lmmaso your genealogy is nothing more than a pack of criminals sent to Australia for stealing others property by the Crown, defectives had to be exported to harvest the untapped resources of the new commonwealth for the good of the empire.

            What is wrong with you man, serve your betters and be thankful for their graces …

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Yep. That’s what happens to Scomo. Media treats him badly but everyone I know thinks he is ace as!!

        • Good link except the bugaboo about the GFC being a RE loan drama when it was a broad credit risk event built on the coat tails of both deregulation and the funding/staffing of government regulatory agencies e.g. basically a private debt drama becuase freedom of contracts ideology.

          • Sorry but wall st banks et al were handing out credit and commingling paper like a stampede or have you forgotten abused VaR, MERs, fake ratings, non compliant PSA trusts stuffed with defaults going out the door, et al, even when one could see and smell the smoke …

    • I joined the thread after watching the same clip.

      The journo just had to double down, the first half was decent and if left at that, it would likely have shown a poorly thought out thought bubble which was ‘aiming for the stars’, bordering on economic vandalism.

      The second point, rightful was a pissing contest over minutiae, as per what I said in regards to Albo.

      Fark, we’re not taught to memorise Pi to 7 significant figures to show we know geometry, but how to apply it. Same vibe.

      It is going to be a painful, low-information election indeed.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I liked the bit where he beat the dweeb around the head with a baseball bat for asking stupid gotcha questions then answered said stupid gotcha question correctly anyway just to prove the point.

    • reckon the way Beveridge dealt with that journalist should be the template moving forward.
      Name them, state their position and allegiance, label their tactics, don’t dignify the question by answering it.
      Alternatively for the gotcha questions say you’ll play their silly game and answer their question if they answer one straight afterwards. eg. last quarter EBITDA of employer? Effective tax rate of employer? ranking of journalists in eyes of public?

      • Will go on for years….denazification took 5 years at least in East Germany…….and that doesn’t take into account removing all nuclear capable missiles emplacements that threaten Russia…..don’t let your country get built up into a threat to Russia going forwards

        Will have to install Telegram as they are getting serious in shutting down non-Western information sources…..of course they will shut that down as well in the 5 eyes + EU in time, this system the Oligarchs and the CIA have built up to control the public mood is going to bite them on the bum big time when it gets them into something they can’t control ( it already ran away a bit with them this time )

        • That’s cos they were inefficient commies; denazification in West Germany was far quicker ;-p

          • Skips bang on the money.Don’t understand that there isn’t much talk about Operation Paperclip…aside from Bidens Lad and his little labs in the Ukraine…

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Didn’t some of them just change into Stasi uniforms in 1946? That’s pretty efficient!

        • TRADINGtheAPOCALYPSE

          How are we gonna de-nazify Russia is the real question.

          “don’t let your country get built up into a threat to Russia going forwards”. Russias only (and sizeable) threat is nukes. They’ve miscalculated catastrophically militarily in Ukraine and by throwing what’s left of their younger male demographic into unwinnable war they’ve weakened themselves militarily for years.

    • Wonder if this is the first of many? Certainly likely be some more with military links, or is it just that they can’t handler the regulations? If lots of SOEs follow does that suggest they have a plan to do something that might cause sanctions against China?

    • Anybody out there know why we still need pilots? Is there some technology threatening them?

    • Ok. I met a guy who was on the panel. And he was waxing lyrical about the F35s. They can do this, they can do that. And they can even do this and this and this and this and… and then he was tapped in the arm and told that he had said too much. It all came about because I asked “Why don’t we just buy Saabs? They’re cheaper to buy, more versatile, and have a greater operational capacity from what I understand.”The sales pitch we were sold was amazeballs. And who knows how much political pressure was applied to bankroll this boondoggle. So there you go. False promises and political pressure would be my best guess.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Morrison’s boast , (he doesn’t have a policy) about recruiting the Army up to 80,000 troops in the next 10 years means that we will have the ability to put 16, 000 troops in the field. It takes at least 5 troops in support of each one on the front line.
        Then when you allow for rotation of front line troops it means we can field about 10,000 at any given time.
        No Subs, no patrol boats, no fighter aircraft.
        It is a mirage
        Just like his Federal ICAC nonpolicy .

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    UPDATE … Canada’s likely next Conservative Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre talks sense on the housing affordability issue …

    Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening … Bank of Canada

    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/04/fad-press-release-2022-04-13/

    Spiraling housing prices are an ‘intergenerational injustice’, says Canada’s deputy PM … Leyland Cecco … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/canada-housing-prices-chrystia-freeland

    Chrystia Freeland, who also serves as the finance minister, says the issue is her top domestic concern amid affordability crisis … read more via hyperlink above …

    Liveability in Canada’s Small Markets Eclipses Relative Affordability … Re/Max Canada … Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/liveability-canadas-small-markets-eclipses-100000450.html

    RE/MAX Canada brokers and agents anticipate residential price growth across all small markets analyzed, with average increases ranging from three per cent up to 20 per cent in some areas

    • Quality of life factors (or liveability) are drawing many Canadian homebuyers to small markets (40 per cent); followed by housing affordability (37 per cent)

    • More than a quarter of people living in larger markets (28 per cent) would like to move to a smaller market in the next two years

    • A quarter of Canadians (25 per cent), have received family support to purchase their first or current home; this number is consistent in large and small markets … read more via hyperlink above …

    Pierre Poilievre on Twitter: “Big city gatekeepers …. VIDEO … Twitter

    https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1513493563425714185