Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Another poor session for Asian stock markets with concerns over Chinese growth and the ongoing COVID lockdowns combined with increased tensions in Europe while the Fed seems hell bent on raising rates sharply. The Australian dollar has continued to selloff, still holding barely at the 74 cent level versus USD, while Yen is still extremely weak with Euro and Pound Sterling rolling over as the London session gets underway. Oil markets are trying to stabilise but both markers are now under the critical $100USD per barrel level while gold is slowly pushing higher following its Friday night breakout. Bitcoin has crumbled once again, now pushing below the $40K level and looking to break for a new monthly low:

Mainland Chinese share markets remain unsettled although the Shanghai Composite jumped higher towards the close, currently up 1.4% to 3214 points while the Hang Seng Index has managed a meagre bounceback, up 0.6% to 21350 points. Japanese stock markets remain in sell mode however with the Nikkei 225 closing some 1.6% lower to 26334 points while the USDJPY pair is stuck at it recent high at the mid 125 level, still well above the March high but looking way overstretched:

Australian stocks were not able to escape the selling today, with the ASX200 closing 0.4% lower at 7454 points, remaining well below the key 7500 point level, while the Australian dollar has continued to fall, anchored at the 74 handle in the wake of a Chinese slowdown:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are drifting lower with the former down 1% already with the S&P500 four hourly chart looking to follow through similarly. The 4500 point level is now a distant memory as price retraces back down to monthly support with momentum remaining oversold and ready to keep going down:

The economic calendar is jammed pack tonight with UK unemployment, German ZEW Survey and then US core inflation prints.

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Comments

  1. Fishing72MEMBER

    Isn’t it nice to have a bit of classic autumn back!

    Pumping waves, light winds, sky as blue as blue can be.

    Nice work Huey.

    Of course it was raining today and will probably rain tomorrow but it sure was nice for a couple of days there.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Lucky you, only been able to sneak a couple of days in between brown water.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Lol was talking with one of my girlfriends about it, saying what do you think I’ll pay people in gift cards instead wages it’s tax and super free !!

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I normal just talk to my girlfriends about the pleasure in their lives at the moment

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          We do that, but we also like to talk about maximise profits by abusing employees

    • This is shockingly inefficient from a tax point of view. The $50 card is subject to FBT and so if effectively taxed at the top marginal tax rate. That is, it’s costing the employer about $94 to pay the $50 card. At $25 an hour, the security guards would much prefer to get $94 extra in pay and pay tax on that.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        your assessment is right for honest people, for shifty ones, they’ll write the gift cards as business expense and then give it to employees as wages without tax or super for them

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Replied twice and changed the wording but the replies are hostages at the moderator

    • https://twitter.com/i/status/1513633804983980040

      the “DPR” mil spokesman Basurin on First🇷🇺TV channel said that 🇷🇺 should encircle #Mariupol last-remaining defenders in Azovstal plant & attack them with chemical weapons: “We should ask the chemical warfare department to smoke the moles out of their holes.”

    • Camden HavenMEMBER

      As likely as the report a month or two ago that ruskies were shelling a nuclear power plant.

      “The war” is in its 8th year those photos are from anywhere and anytime during that period.

      Desperation me thinks

    • But then they cop the “wHaT aRe lAbOr’S pOlIcIeS!?one!” talk.

      At this point, the Leopards Ate My Face moment of boomers voting for the LNP then being led away to nursing homes in a few years will probably drain the well of irony we’ve almost exhausted in the last two years.

    • – “Return of Great Power Politics in the 21st century” (with John Mearsheimer).
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKM6YdIxwQo
      This makes the current geo-political situation much more “instable” than in the last say 30 years (My personal opinion is that the era of Cold War (1945 – 2021) has finally come to an end. We could be “shifting gears” from a “Cold War” (1945 – 2021) to/towards a new “Hot war” (think: Ukraine, Russia and ….. the US).

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        SFM can claim they are on top of it, and then when it all turns to custard they have a single patsy who can take all the blame for the entire national security cabinet being asleep at the wheel (or awake in the prayer room, as it may be)

  2. – The Advance/Decline line (US stockmarkets) was (much) weaker than the rebound of the S&P 500, Dow Jones & Nasdaq. NOT a good sign !!!! This line never recovered as much as the major US stockmarkets. The A/D line remained flat in the timeframe june 2021 – december 2021 but now seems to indicate there are more stockmarkets declines ahead.
    – “The FED raising rates sharply” ????? Don’t believe a word of it !!!! IF & WHEN the 3 month T-bill rate goes above 0.70% then and only then I am willing to entertain the idea of one more rate hike. Not one moment sooner !!!!

  3. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    I miss Bcnich and TTW..they must be having a drink at the back of the soup van after a long day of feeding the multitudes

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Wow, Sri Lanka is going through though time indeed,
        Add that Russia defaulted yesterday .
        Wonder which European country will be first 🤔

          • Stolen? You’re an interesting type. I guess you approve of the special military operations?

          • Stick to the point gav if you can, default after having stuff stolen is a weird argument.

            Military groans after all the ME antics is mentally and logically absurd.

          • TRADINGtheAPOCALYPSE

            Lol @ “stolen”. Money is a social and political construct. If some sh1t-hole backwater (Russia) wants to catastrophically miscalculate and try post-colonial land grabs via weaponised rape and genocide, thus tearing apart the trust behind the fabric of said construct, they can expect a little financial blowback..

          • TA how you arrive at a grab is just as silly as the default positioning …. go look at everything since Iran Contra.

            Remember babies taken out of incubators staged event during Kuwait propaganda, WMDs et al, after Albright gave the green light. Remember what she said some dead kids being worth it. Though your sort was supposed to be immune to false flags and guberment lies.

            Now it like watching kids with a beer bong …

          • Naw TW thats you and the rest of the PDS afflicted drama. I now what lead up to this, including all the stuff the states did since Iran – Contra, Granada, Panama, supporting the Taliban back in the day when they were called freedom fighter mujahedin, all the treaties broken, will not sign on the the international court of law et al.

      • Shar in for Khan, for Pakistan this could be like out of the frying pan into the fire. Well a least thier courts did the right thing recently, still a little hope

  4. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/new-data-exposes-the-cause-behind-australias-rental-price-explosion/news-story/cfcd94758ee0cf98fcb2bfd8351a7d6b
    How come we have a rental crisis?
    Hasn’t immigration gone negative?
    Isn’t there thousands of empty properties?
    Why only in Oz where things like this happen,
    no immigration = rental crisis and cost of rent up
    Covid crisis = house prices up 35%
    Interest rates up= banks become richer and poor become poorer

    • House rents rose the most over the 12-month period, with a 14.7 per cent increase. Unit prices also rose by 11.2 per cent.

      Note not apartments! Because after Covid people want detached housing.

      I think also, people have bought up secondary residences in regional areas and perhaps not renting them out, causing a further shortage. Basically the wealthy are buying multiple homes and the less fortunate have less options to rent.

      • TRADINGtheAPOCALYPSE

        I know folks who rented 2 properties. One in city, one down coast, just to get away from pandemic lockdowns. They’ve kept the lease on both because they love the lifestyle.

        • If you can afford it I guess. I couldn’t justify it. I’d rather buy rural than rent it, but I guess it’s a less expensive way of testing if you’ll use a second property.

    • Nothing makes sense anymore. I’m shook. My Dad rings me up to get my opinion on things like the old days but now I just say “I don’t know, I just don’t know”.

      This cheers me up though. (Im not anti EV, I just think they’re getting way too far ahead of themselves.)
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfUJCWRFjig

      • I love my classics but I want to move away from depending on fossil fuels as much for the Environment as for moving away from corrupt regimes and states. The less money these human rights violators can make the better.

        That’s what would motivate me more than anything else to switch right now.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand …

    Brain drain: Officials estimate 50,000 Kiwis could leave over the next year, but number could surge to 125,000 … Henry Cooke … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300564486/brain-drain-officials-estimate-50000-kiwis-could-leave-over-the-next-year-but-number-could-surge-to-125000

    Government officials say up to 125,000 Kiwis could leave the country in the next year as borders reopen and young people flow overseas.

    But they say a number closer to 50,000 is more likely – about as high as permanent migration of New Zealand citizens was in the early 2010s as New Zealand recovered from the Great Recession.

    Kiwi citizens all but stopped moving overseas during the pandemic, with just 12,000 opting to in 2020, compared to 38,000 in 2019. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Covid-19: The exodus after the borders open – MBIE estimates 50,000 Kiwis will leave … Claire Trevett … New Zealand Herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-the-exodus-after-the-borders-open-mbie-estimates-50000-kiwis-will-leave/HB4LXYDQWCFY4LM4NGPCQHW3UA/

    New Zealand reports migration loss in February … Nasdaq

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/new-zealand-reports-migration-loss-in-february

    Colossal New Zealand housing bubble engulfs economy … Leith van Onselen … MacroBusiness Australia

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/04/colossal-new-zealand-housing-bubble-engulfs-economy/

    • Old Oz adage … a thousand come but only one works …

      Think that is applicable to you buddy …

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Albo starting to get slammed and told to “get over it” when instead of talking policies (which he has none) he keeps trying to fling sh1t on Scomo. Labor’s strategy is gonna get pounded more and more as the election gets closer! 😅😂🤣

  7. The Noalition is paying 2.40 on Sportsbet

    The way the media are lining up against Labor as wells labor’s ineptitude makes this a juicy bet

    • Labour is not inept … third way or Washington consensus aside chap … must have missed Bills and Rubin’s antics …

    • Gasp … have they invaded the protectorate of the vestiges of colonialism in Central or South America … shudders at the loss of freedom and liberties …

  8. I just realised today that I’m the swing voter type they keep talking about… I’ve voted both ways but the way I swing each election correlated (thus far*) to the election result. Just end up voting for who I hate less based on last few years, and who I can’t stand for another few yrs.

    * past performance not indicative of the future result.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      So you live in NSW and last election, hated Shorten / Labor more than SFM and the rest of the cronies / LNP

      ?

      • Oh yep. They reaked of the same b.s. as Hillary Clinton in the u.s. All the virtue signalling but weird policies like unlimited parental visas. Imagine the position we would be in for the pandemic with that lot… “oh someone dying in some other country. Bring them here and offer them medicare”. No problems voting against that.
        LNP have now extended their stay. Boot em out.

  9. Waiting for Caroline Kennedy to arrive in Australia to assume her Ambassadorship for the US. I reckon we’ll then have Australia’s real PM on the ground. It would be funny if it wasn’t so true. Just like sending the All Blacks to play the Wallabies…..this is how it’s done fellas, let the adults into the room!!

    • Finland have a well equipped army that is bigger than Ukraine. Russia has proven to be pretty terrible. The could not sustain a war footing on two separate fronts.