China is in recession and it’s going to get worse

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If it were not for the war in Ukraine, global commodity prices would be in an outright crash as a Chinese hard landing plays out. This is not an entirely academic point to make. My base case is that that crash is still coming owing to a global recession shock commencing before our very eyes. The centre of it is China.

There are three factors to it.

First, the property sector remains a smoking crater:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.