Here’s is what is so damn good about the West’s Russian sanctions regime:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it plans to close its operations in Russia, the first major Wall Street bank to leave in response to the nation’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Goldman Sachs is winding down its business in Russia in compliance with regulatory and licensing requirements,” the company said Thursday in an emailed statement. “We are focused on supporting our clients across the globe in managing or closing out pre-existing obligations in the market and ensuring the well-being of our people.”
Why is it good? Because it’s a dry run for what the West must openly prepare for China as the response if it ever invades Taiwan.
Why does it even matter? Because, unlike Russia, China does have regional and global imperial ambitions. Taiwan doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things either economically or strategically and is not worth going to war for. But it is a gift of an opportunity to prevent the CCP from stretching its tentacles beyond ethnic Chinese homelands.
If the regime of sanctions applied to Russia were applied to China, its economy would be devastated and the CCP so busy trying to prevent its overthrow at home that expansion abroad would become laughable.
Chinese exports are far larger than Russia’s.
Chinese commodity dependency is far larger than Russia’s.
Chinese forex reserves are far larger than Russia’s.
Chinese capital inflows are far larger than Russia’s.
In short, the Chinese economy is far more dependent upon globalised markets than is Russia’s.
Russia’s economy is on the verge of shrinking 10-15% this year. China’s would shrink much more if the same sanctions were applied.
Sure, we’d be hit too but nowhere near as badly. And it’s a small price to pay from freedom.
The West should be openly preparing this response in the event of a Taiwan invasion so China and Wall St know precisely the consequences.
To wit, this is good:
An Australian government minister has met China’s new ambassador, the most senior contact between the two nations in years, but they failed to resolve any outstanding disagreements.
China’s new ambassador to Canberra, Xiao Qian, sought a meeting with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Marise Payne, several weeks ago and Senator Payne eventually granted him an appointment in Sydney on Wednesday.
Mr Xiao has struck a conciliatory tone in public comments since arriving in Australia in January but without any sign of any substantive relenting from Beijing nor any initiative from Canberra, according to the Australian overview of the meeting.
The essential impasse is that China’s government has demanded Australia make concessions in 14 areas of its sovereignty while under Chinese trade boycotts on more than $20 billion worth of its exports, but Australia has refused to yield.
The 14 conditions to end democracy are the contractual proof of CCP imperial ambitions. They must be resisted at the pain of death.
But, that will not be necessary if the threat of an economy-crushing sanctions regime is in place.
Which is why this is a real blow:
Labor senator Kimberley Kitching, who suddenly died on Thursday night, has been lauded as a “brave justice warrior”, with human rights campaigners from around the world vowing to carry on her work.
Kitching, a senator for Victoria since 2016, died of a suspected heart attack at the age of 52.
When she entered parliament, Kitching ferociously campaigned for a Magnitsky Act so that Australia could join its allies – the United Kingdom, United States and Canada – in imposing sanctions on human rights violators.
Kitching was one of the few clear-eyed Labor China hawks and she will be missed:
Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching has died aged 52 from a suspected heart attack. Prime Minister Scott Morrison tweeted that he was “deeply saddened at the news”, continuing that he had “great respect” for her and — somewhat oddly — mentioned in his statement that Kitching was “a practicing [sic] Catholic”. Former Labor leader Bill Shorten says Kitching had a heart problem, and described the “immense loss to Labor and the nation”. Indeed Labor Leader Anthony Albanese tweeted the “Labor family is in shock”. Kitching was admired across the floor, it seems — Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce wrote he’s “so terribly upset” about the loss of his “dear friend”, while Liberal Senator James Paterson called her a “true patriot” and a “warrior for her cause”.
But not by Labor:
News.com.au understands a meeting of the Labor Right just 24 hours earlier had declined to re-endorse her preselection, despite the fact there seemed to be no alternative candidate. During the meeting, attendees who declined to endorse her candidacy said it was a matter for the national executive.
Meanwhile, the dangerous Penny Wong somehow managed to darken the day further:
Labor’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Penny Wong, says it may be possible for Australia to achieve a diplomatic thaw with China despite the substantial differences between the two countries – if Scott Morrison abandons his “desperate” pre-election weaponisation of national security.
The foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, this week met China’s new ambassador to Australia who has made several overtures for dialogue since arriving in Canberra in January.
Subsequently, the shadow minister told the Guardian’s Australian Politics podcast that diplomatic engagement was important.
Wong said if Labor won the federal election in May, Australia would not be taking “a backward step” on any substantive points of disagreement with Beijing.
“We won’t be abandoning the positions that cause China concern – Australia’s position on the South China Sea, Australia’s right to determine who builds its 5G network and who is part of the NBN,” Wong said. “We’re not going to abandon our position on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or human rights or foreign interference.”
But, she added: “What we wouldn’t do is play domestic politics with the China relationship.”
“I’ve not seen [a prime minister] use terms like Manchurian candidate, or Beijing’s preferred candidate, ever,” Wong said.
“It is it is a demonstration of the extent to which Scott Morrison is desperate, but it is also a trashing of Australia’s national interests because one of the things that makes us strongest is our unity.”
Wong said the relationship with Australia’s largest trading partner was “complex and challenging and difficult” and is “only made harder, by the playing of domestic politics with that”.
A “diplomatic thaw” is the key backward step. We need to get as far away from this evil and imperialist regime as soon as economically possible and the best way to do that is to keep vested interests terrified of political risk.
