The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week released population data for the September quarter of 2021, which revealed that another 6,004 people fled Victoria over the quarter, while Queensland’s population surged by 19,287:
Over the pandemic (i.e. between Q2 2020 and Q3 2021), Victoria lost 50,796 people whereas Queensland gained 65,248 people:
The next chart displays the same data in rolling annual terms, with Victoria swinging from population growth leader to loser:
Housing affordability is obviously a big carrot driving the migration north. Brisbane property is still ‘cheap’ compared to Melbourne:
The median Brisbane house costs 72% that of a Melbourne house.
The inward migration to South East Queensland helps to explain the region’s price outperformance over the pandemic.
Over the short-term, Brisbane’s floods may stifle the migration north and slow the city’s property boom.
On the other hand, Brisbane’s 2032 Olympics should fuel property demand over the long-term.
My tip is that Brisbane’s property market will outperform Sydney’s and Melbourne’s over the next decade, purely because it is relatively affordable.
