This week’s Newspoll had Labor cruising to a crushing election win, leading the Coalition 55% to 45% on a two-party preferred basis:
The latest Roy Morgan survey, which was conducted during the 10 days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, from Monday February 14 to Wednesday February 23, 2022, has Labor leading by an even bigger margin: 56.5% to the Coalition’s 43.5%:
ALP support was at 56.5% (down 0.5% points since mid-February) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine last week…
The result is virtually unchanged from the ALP’s large lead in early February (ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%) and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%)…
Primary support for the ALP was down 1% point to 37.5% in late February and is now 5% points ahead of the L-NP, down 0.5% points to 32.5%. Support for the Greens was up 1% point to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged on 1.5%. Support for Other Parties was up 0.5% points to 4% while support for Independents was up 0.5% points to 8.5%…
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, but the two parties are ‘dead-even’ on 50% each in Queensland…
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I can’t see the Russian invasion of Ukraine changing the election landscape and still tip Labor to win the upcoming federal election easily.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
