Economists at New Zealand’s largest bank – ANZ – are tipping that Kiwis will flood across the pond to Australia over the next few years, worsening skills shortages across the country, increasing inflationary pressures, and possibly leading to a “harder than expected landing in the [housing] construction industry”:
The staggered nature of the current reopening plan means there’s a significant risk we see a large net outflow of people over 2022 – especially as the Australian labour market is now forecast to heat up significantly over the year. That could put further pressure on our already-stretched labour market, while adding further to housing headwinds…
New Zealand has historically seen a net loss of people to Australia. In fact, 2020 was the only year in the past few decades where we actually saw a positive inflow (figure 1).
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
