The Solomons crisis continues today:
Mr Sogavare on Tuesday said the deal was close to being signed as he denied his country had “picked a side”. He said he felt “insulted” by claims the deal would pave the way for the establishment of a Chinese naval base.
However, security experts and the government fear that is a realistic outcome if the deal, which would also allow Chinese police and military to be stationed on the Solomons, goes ahead.
”Normal law enforcement and security co-operation between China and Solomon Islands, two independent countries, is consistent with international law and customary international practice,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said late on Monday when asked about suggestions China could build a naval base there.
Sources said Pacific Island leaders have felt blindsided by Mr Sogavare’s secret negotiations with China, which they believe goes against the region’s traditional approach of consultation and collective security.
Mr Morrison spoke to Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape and Fiji’s leader, Frank Bainimarama, on Monday.
One possible pathway is for Fiji, as this year’s chairman of the Pacific Islands Forum, to ask Mr Sogavare to pause the agreement to allow regional leaders to talk about it privately.
“Pacific leaders are concerned about the implications of this agreement. I would expect there to be attempts to reach out to Sogavare from leaders in the region,” said Mihai Sora, a Lowy Institute research fellow and a former Australian diplomat to Honiara.
Mr Sora acknowledged the strength of Mr Sogavare’s commitment to an agreement, which made it difficult for him to dump it, but the pact could be narrowed in scope and made more clearly defined and transparent.
Then there is this:
Australia has been dealt a fresh blow with confirmation Solomon Islands police have engaged in training with China.
The Royal Solomon Islands Police Force released images of officers following the completion of the two-week training course.
The officers can be seen engaged in hand-to-hand combat and using rifles – which officials claim are “replicas” that were provided by Beijing for training purposes.
There is the shape of another possible outcome developing here. It’s not great for the Solomons but it is better for Australia.
Chinese police are notorious thugs so any training or actual logistical support that they provide to the local police force is unlikely to end well.
As we have seen through successive riots and the torching of island Chinatowns, Chinese nationals are already unpopular with Solomoons locals. If we add Chinese-influenced police brutality to that equation it is not hard to see another eruption of violence and civil war, perhaps between Guadalcanal and Malaita which have been at loggerheads for years.
Successive Australian peacekeeping missions have failed to quell the violence and resentment and much more unpopular and violent Chinese police are more likely to stir up a hornets nest.
That said, if the level of Chinese investment is large enough, it might be enough to placate all. Though that is doubtful given it will accrue mostly to a corrupt elite.
If Australia plays its cards right, rather than open a door into the Pacific for China, the Solomons could develop into China’s first Pacific quagmire.
