China Economy

Chinese hard landing dead ahead

David Llewellyn-Smith
Wednesday, 16 March 2022
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More on yesterday’s better than feared Chinese growth numbers from Pantheon Economics. My own view is that China is still on track for a hard landing later this year as external demand hiccups just as OMICRON and realty hammer domestic demand. 

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  • China: Industrial production slowed to 7.5% ytd y/y in February, from 9.6% in December. Consensus was 4.0%.
  • China: Retail sales slowed to 6.7% ytd y/y in February, from 12.5% in December. Consensus was 3.0%.
  • China: FAI growth jumped to 12.2% ytd y/y in February, from 4.9% in December. Consensus was 5.0%.
  • China: Property investment slowed to 3.7% ytd y/y in February, from 4.4% in December. Consensus was -7.0%.
  • China: The surveyed jobless rate rose to 5.5% in February, from 5.1% in December. Consensus was 5.1%.
  • China: The 1-year MLF rate was left unchanged at 2.85%. Consensus had called for a cut to 2.75%.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.