A virus proved a better treasurer than Josh Frydenberg

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Let’s recall the glory days of LNP economic mismanagement of 2019 when Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was busy driving the economy into the ground for the purposes of budget repair.

Growth was weak and unemployment rising amid a flood of indentured slavery migrants. The RBA and every other serious economist in the country was demanding more fiscal spending but Treasurer Frydenberg knew better: for the sole purpose of burnishing his fiscal credentials:

Now, fast forward to today and the LNP is crowing about its economic management again for the opposite reason:

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Amid concerns about the rising cost of living, it must never be forgotten that the best response will always be to ensure that everyone who wants to work can get a job. Stable employment transforms lives, engenders self-confidence and self-respect, lifts families, and allows individuals to thrive. And, as Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Simon Birmingham have been quick to trumpet, low rates of unemployment add vigour to the budget bottom line.

Higher employment works two ways. It reduces the cost of welfare and adds to government receipts through higher taxation. Senator Birmingham said the nation’s unemployment welfare bill will plummet in next week’s budget with almost 200,000 fewer people claiming the dole by 2023 than forecast last year. This means that JobSeeker payments as a share of the economy were trending towards historic lows. “That is one of the funda­mental dividends of a strong economy,” Senator Birmingham said.

Increased tax receipts together with a boost in national income from higher commodity prices puts the budget in a much better position than otherwise would be the case. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released jobs data confirming the unemployment rate dropped to 4 per cent last month. The Treasurer said this would help lock in a “trajectory” towards lowering pandemic-induced debt levels.

But what delivered this outcome? Was it Josh Frydenberg? Hardly. It was COVID-19.

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First, the virus forced Frydenberg to break out of his ill-conceived fiscal tightening amid a weak economy.

Second, and most importantly, the virus forced the closure of international borders cutting off the flow of indentured slave migrants and enabling chronically unemployed Australians to get a job.

That’s right. A virus did a better job of managing the Australian economy than Treasurer Josh Frydenberg ever did.

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Which all brings to mind this little gem from The Matrix:

Enjoy your time in opposition, Mr Frydenberg. You’ve earned it.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.