Morrison lies about new migration flood

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has pushed back against the business lobby’s call to ‘catch-up’ for lost immigration over the pandemic, stating that he will not lift the permanent migrant cap:

The Morrison government will not use the reopening of Australia’s border to make up for lost ground in immigration levels, but will keep the annual intake capped at pre-COVID-19 levels…

Australia’s net overseas migration was capped at 160,000 a year but fell into negative territory at the height of the pandemic, contributing to workforce shortages but also helping push down the unemployment rate.

Despite a sentiment among business to make up for lost ground, senior sources said the government would not revisit the cap, believing it would “take some time to ramp up again”.

Increasing the cap would be a politically dangerous move ahead of the May election…

The AFR’s Phillip Coorey seems confused on this matter. While net overseas migration (NOM) did indeed fall into negative:

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This was because around half a million temporary migrants left:

At the same time, 160,000 permanent visas were handed out in 2020-21, mostly to temporary migrants already living in Australia:

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As we know, the Morrison Government has already committed to import at least 200,000 temporary migrant workers by July:

“We are working on a figure of 200,000, it may well be more than that but we will be actively looking to bring as many people into Australia as soon as we possibly canKaren Andrews, 22 November 2021.

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Hence, the Morrison Government is ‘taking tough’ on permanent migration while it moves to flood the place with temporary visa holders.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.