How high will interest rates go?

David Llewellyn-Smith

Monday, 14 February 2022

Interest rates are on the march around the world. How high will they get?

Markets are pricing a terminal cash rate in the US at about 2%. The Fed is slightly higher. I don’t believe either.

One reason why is that the Treasury curve is already collapsing at speed before the Fed has raised at all:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.