Don’t underestimate a Minsky moment in China
As we know, the Chinese property sector is still in trouble. Markets are hopeful that it won’t last. But it keeps getting worse anyway.
Last week CRIC reported this shocker, via Goldman:
China physical property market still under pressure in January. According to the CRIC, total sales for China’s top 100 developers in January this year was RMB 526bn, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.6%, and 43% lower than the average monthly sales recorded in 2021. CRIC noted it is industry consensus that 2022 will see negative growth, following on from very weak performance across the sector during 2H21, when new construction and land acquisition were down 31% and 33% year-on-year, respectively. Therefore, more easing measures will be required to stabilize the China property sector. As noted in our recent Global Markets Daily, we expect more piecemeal measures directed towards the China property sector, though policymakers are unlikely to shift back to a reflationary stance, as they seek to maintain their medium-term goal of deleveraging the sector.
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