Don’t underestimate a Minsky moment in China

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As we know, the Chinese property sector is still in trouble. Markets are hopeful that it won’t last. But it keeps getting worse anyway.

Last week CRIC reported this shocker, via Goldman:

China physical property market still under pressure in January. According to the CRIC, total sales for China’s top 100 developers in January this year was RMB 526bn, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.6%, and 43% lower than the average monthly sales recorded in 2021. CRIC noted it is industry consensus that 2022 will see negative growth, following on from very weak performance across the sector during 2H21, when new construction and land acquisition were down 31% and 33% year-on-year, respectively. Therefore, more easing measures will be required to stabilize the China property sector. As noted in our recent Global Markets Daily, we expect more piecemeal measures directed towards the China property sector, though policymakers are unlikely to shift back to a reflationary stance, as they seek to maintain their medium-term goal of deleveraging the sector.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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