JPM went all-in on rate hikes over the weekend:
January inflation readings surprised materially to the upside, pushing our current-quarter global CPI inflation forecast to 5.7%q/q,saar (ex.Turkey,Table1). In contrast to our forecast for global inflation to moderate to a still-strong 3.5% as the year began, we now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace. These developments align with the hawkish signals from central banks, and we have accelerated projected policy rate normalization paths in response. Notably, we now look for the Fed to hike 25bp at each of the next nine meetings, with the policy rate approaching a neutral stance by early next year. As policy rates move higher, it is important to note that we have yet to evaluate the impact on growth forecasts for next year (Figure 1).
Well, others are doing so and the picture ain’t pretty. ZH has another JPM wrap:
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