State’s COVID cases rise as Gold Coast cause for concern

The other States put in there COVID stats this morning, with Tasmania first with nearly 1400 cases:

Here is QLD:

The Gold Coast cluster continues to be a sore point for Queensland health professionals. From ABC:

Former National Health and Medical Research Council chairman Michael Good said he was very concerned about the Gold Coast outbreak.

“It is the epicentre of this big outbreak in Queensland,” he said. Professor Good said the virus was spreading quickly among pockets of unvaccinated people.

“I’m very concerned, absolutely, yeah. You need that third shot, you need that booster to be well protected against Omicron, and not enough people have got that.”

GP and Bond University assistant professor Natasha Yates said months of pleas for the Gold Coast community to get vaccinated had fallen on deaf ears.

South Australia:

Morrison’s “let it rip” continues.

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Comments

  1. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Even if you get a third shot, it takes two weeks to reach peak immunity, and the rate it is spreading someone is more likely to be be infected in the next 2 weeks than afterward. QLD has over 40% positive rate today!!

  2. Unless the “third shot” is configured for Omicron isn’t this akin to doing a software upgrade to Windows XP?

    I gladly remain in the “control group”.

  3. I thought it was pretty well understood that the vaccines don’t stop people contracting the disease and then spreading it. The mantra is that they just reduce the severity and duration of the symptoms among the infected. That’s certainly the case in the ACT where we have a 98.5% vaccination rate and 1000+ cases per day.

    And I may be misinformed, but as I understand things, the challenge presented to the immune system by the jab results in a window of negative efficacy while the body responds. This means that getting jabbed in the middle of a giant outbreak only makes people more prone to infection.

    So why are these so-called experts hooting about getting more people vaccinated? What the hell is the agenda here? Are they all being paid off by Pfizzler or something. I just don’t understand it.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      According to the non vaxed older shop assistant (ex professional in previous life), at the sporting venue he went to he was surrounded by 4 fully 3x vaxed and they all caught Covid except him.
      Does that mean we should ostracize all the vaxed and avoid them because they are more likely to have the Covie lurgie.

      • There must be a sh1tload of vaxxed people out there at the moment wondering what the hell is going on. They believed the gummint, they did the right thing for the good of society, then they did it again! Then they caught the terrible bug anyway. Aren’t vaccines supposed to stop you from catching the bug? Even more so if you’re “boosted”, which sounds so cool! WTF?

        My workplace is about 99% vaccinated, and they’re dropping like flies. I know of 6 cases that have been notified since yesterday morning. All vaccinated. One of team is unvaxxed, and he has a visiting family member who has tested positive but he feels fine and negative on the test.

        This is almost a “pass the popcorn” moment.

        • Your experience is what you would expect over a small number of relatively young people.

          Understand that the infection mortality rate for Covid is around 0.15%. In that order anyway. That’s for the population as a whole. In people less than 60, it is much lower.

          So the overwhelming majority will do fine with or without the vaccine. A small number are vulnerable (or just unlucky) and the vaccine helps these people.

          The initial studies were too small to show much impact on the IMR – as it is already so low. Most deaths (in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups) were from conditions other than Covid. Not surprising then the studies could not find much difference.

          In the real world across hundreds of millions, the small individual reduction adds up.

          Take seat belts. They reduce road deaths at the population level. But only for those unlucky enough to be in a serious crash. For many people, their seat belt never made a difference. Conversely, people still die from heart attacks or cancer regardless of whether they wear a seat belt.
          A study of 500 people wearing a seat belt and 500 not wearing a seat belt over a 3 month period would likely find no difference – as death from a car crash is fairly rare.

          • Thanks steve. I understand that to be the case.

            Despite some of my frustrated rhetoric I can see the vaccines provide some temporary reduction of severity and relief of symptoms. For some people they are no doubt a life-saver. My elderly parents are vaccinated and I’m glad that they are. And who cares about long term side effects when you’re 87? If I was older and feeble and more at risk my risk assessment would be different and I’d be at the front of the line for my next booster.

            All of which leads back to my long stated belief that we could’ve done so much better in so many ways. Targeted use of vaccines to reduce disease severity in high risk individuals being one of them. The “vaccinate everybody” program has largely been a failure, and I have no doubt its doing the cause of vaccination, one of our greatest medical achievements, a huge disservice. I have seen the actual nutty anti-vaxxers making their cases that the polio and smallpox vaccines were also ineffective and a huge scam, and the punters are agreeing with them! Apparently smallpox is still prevalent, but the doctors just call it something different now! FFS!

            The worldwide mass insanity of the last two years, and perhaps the next few years, are going to be marvelled at for generations to come.

          • On the flip side of that, three of my colleagues who were younger than me died unexpectedly of heart attacks in the space of a few months last year after being vaccinated. Two had comorbidities and one was perfectly fit and healthy. Correlation is not causation, but I think the safety of the vaccines has been vastly overstated. And the potential for long term side effects is completely unknown until the long term has happened.

          • One of the problems was the early studies were “tweaked” to magnify any benefit. They did this by counting you as non-vaccinated until 14 days after shot 2. The rationale was that you are not immune until 14 days after shot 2. Hence any infections before then were a case of “too early” rather than vaccine failure. Makes sense in some ways – they wanted to test effect of immunity, which takes time to develop.

            A consequence was that unexplained deaths soon after the vaccine were recorded in the non-vaccine aged group.

            @pfofnfenton has some good UK data on this, and how this tweak simultaneously made the vaccine look more effective and less dangerous. A lot of planning goes into these trials. It is big business.

            A SC once told me that “you never ask a question in court unless you know and want the answer.”

          • Or if you have had a cold recently.
            “Researchers with Imperial College London found in the new study that the presence of T cells can also prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2. The scientists assessed 52 contacts of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases to pinpoint when they were first exposed and determined that people who tested negative for COVID-19 had higher cross-reactive T cell levels. They also took blood samples from the participants within 6 days of exposure. “Being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t always result in infection, and we’ve been keen to understand why. We found that high levels of pre-existing T cells, created by the body when infected with other human coronaviruses like the common cold, can protect against COVID-19 infection,” Dr. Rhia Kundu, the lead author, of Imperial’s National Heart & Lung Institute, said in a statement.”

      • Correct. You’ve uncovered my secret. I’ve spent my entire career alternating between shuffling papers in my bureau and sleeping in my hammock. It’s been fcking great!

  4. Want to blame someone, then blame
    1. China (CCP) take your pick of lax food standards at markets or lax lab bio security (multiple prior offences for both)
    2. WHO – inept und under spell of China

    This has gone on for 2 years.
    That is 3% of an average lifespan
    For anyone under 20, that is at least 10% of their life to date

    No government anywhere has managed this perfectly

    But by every KPI, we have done pretty well in Australia – mainly because we are an island

    At some point, we have to move through this
    If we don’t during summer, then people will argue that winter is not the right time either

    Get vaccinated
    Get healthy – stop smoking, lose weight
    Get on with life

  5. The data is murky everywhere. And it cuts both ways.

    In March -April 2020, there were an unusual number of deaths in some nursing homes. Likely some of these were Covid. But we had very limited testing capacitg then, so they were likely coded as some other cause.

    2 USA counties recently reduced their 2020 Covid deaths by 25-30% (reduced by thousands( as they realised some died with Covid.

    In one rural USA county, 40% of their Covid deaths had the not insignificant comorbidity of GSW to the chest. But they tested positive for Covid so into the case numbers they went.

    In UK, there has been an increase in all cause mortality. Much of that is Covid. But the increase was less than the official Covid deaths. 2 possibilities
    1. Mis attribution
    2. Covid cures cancer and heart attacks – as these deaths went down.

    The fact that in many countries, the median age of death with/from Covid is very close to the median age of death (all cause) hints that a number of deaths were “normal” deaths that happened to have Covid – and this caused these 2 median ages of death to converge.

    The data is a mess. Make of it what you will. Whatever your agenda, you will find supporting data.

    We have never used PCR (which amplifies fragments of RNA by anything up to 9 trillion times (2^43) so it can be detected in asymptomatic people of people with other illnesses. Kary Mullis (inventor of PCR) was aware of the limitations of PCR and of extrapolating significance from tiny RNA loads. He died in 2019, and it is intriguing to speculate how this might have unfolded were he still alive.
    Note that some “fact checkers” have reviewed their initial position on this. After initially refuting Mullis voiced these concerns (which he did), these guardians of truth now state that some social medial posters have taken his comments out of context (which is also correct).
    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN24420X

    Anyway make of the data what you will. In 100 years time, people will laugh at what we did – much as we laugh at the blood letting of yesteryear.

    It’s the same as the official CPI. Everyone knows that’s rubbish – especially after buying fuel or going to the supermarket. 3% my @ss. But people can chart the CPI to their hearts content.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      Anyway make of the data what you will. In 100 years time, people will laugh at what we did – much as we laugh at the blood letting of yesteryear.

      Horse manure.
      A full peer reviewed paper here (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234) shows that using the ‘revised’ count of deaths found that covid was STILL the 3rd highest cause of death – 10% (0.3mil of 3.3 mil deaths) of of ALL deaths in the USA in 2020 was from covid! This is what ‘let it rip while not fully vaccinated’ looks like. Looking at Australia – we had about 900 deaths out of a 161k deaths – 0.55%. With a let it rip we would have been up at around 27k deaths in Australia with the same again in 2021.

      So your ‘blood letting’ methods used in Australia (lockdowns then vaccinations) has saved around 50,000 premature deaths.

      Alpha and Delta are not Omicron. A bunch of anti-vaxxers are currently going ‘see, look, omicron, look how it is ripping through and no one is dyeing – we told you to just let it rip from day one.’

      And the next mutation could be just as contagious and more deadly than Alpha/Delta. Omicron is a branch off Alpha – not a branch of Delta. This thing is mutating differently than the flu does (branching from the latest variants.)

      • Today’s scorecard ……… death , covid
        92 per million Aust
        2600 per million US
        6000 per million Peru
        Yea, I know, all lies …… cherry pick away

      • It is indeed possible the next variant will share the transmissibility of omicron and the pathogenicity of delta or beta.

        The lineage of omicron is decidedly strange. If you look at the genomes of Wuhan, alpha, beta and delta, you can determine the rate of nucleotide (the building blocks of RNA) change. You can’t make omicron fit this relationship. Two possible explanations
        1. Go backwards in time – omicron (or more likely a close ancestor of omicron) was round well before the other strains, and well before 2019
        Or
        2 Omicron was engineered

        If you look at EuroMOMO mortality, there was a significant excess of deaths in 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19. At the time, it was accepted this excess wasn’t due to ‘flu. We don’t know what it was however. The PCR we did then only tested for flu A, flu B and RSV. Maybe a coronavirus was there flying under the radar.

          • Yes Adam is one of many looking at this. The ethical skeptic is another person worth following.

            The major variants we have seen seem more like cousins who share a (thus far unidentified) common ancestor, rather than descendants along a single line. This is very different to what we see with ‘flu. Strange.

            Another oddity is that three N501Y variants arose near-simultaneously on 3 different continents to give us alpha (UK), beta (S Africa) and gamma (Brazil). Strange, especially at a time when global travel was significantly restrained.

            Some comments from Adams thread that you linked

            “A shared characteristic of all known VOCs is that they appeared suddenly with a large number of mutations, many more than the incremental changes we see normally.“

            “Regardless of exact origins, this pattern means we shouldn’t assume next variant of interest/concern will emerge from current circulating Omicron viruses – like other variants, it may well have already evolved (or be evolving) somewhere, from a much older ancestor lineage”

            Something was killing excess people for a few years before Wuhan. We never worked out what that was.

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