NSW and Victoria see big surge in COVID deaths

The two most populous States have seen a surge in COVID deaths in the last 24 hours with  42 Australians dying as case numbers continue to climb, now exceeding 70,000:

Again its mainly younger cohorts reporting new cases (Victorian data below)

The number of people in ICU/ventilators is thankfully not moving higher faster in NSW, but Victorian hospitals are seeing a jump – nearly 100 more admitted to hospital in the last 24 hours.

Let it RIP!

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Comments

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Underlying conditions. Fatties. I’m all right Jack.

    Righto, that’s it Prince, you can lock the comments now.

      • What we need to know is how much if the hospitalisation is incidental. US is 50%, UK is 80%.
        Then we need to know how much hospitalisation is due to delta vs Omicron, along with age cohorts.

          • Just understand cause of death data is notoriously inaccurate. Before Covid. And after Covid.

            Anything up to 50% of death certificates are inaccurate. Those figures came from places sufficiently concerned by this problem to investigate.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/25/coronavirus-death-toll-hard-track-1-3-death-certificates-wrong/3020778001/ It’s more than this

            https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16866055/

            This is why we are better looking at all cause mortality. We usually get the fact someone is dead correct.

          • Just understand cause of death data is notoriously inaccurate. Before Covid. And after Covid.

            Anything up to 50% of death certificates are inaccurate. Those figures came from places sufficiently concerned by this problem to investigate.

            This is why we are better looking at all cause mortality. We usually get the fact someone is dead correct.

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            It makes no difference whether they were vaccinated or not, its now widely accepted that unvaccinated people who died from Covid also had a number of co-morbidities which over inflates the Covid death data.
            “A total of 39,451 COVID-19 deaths were identified from four States that had comorbidity data, including Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and New York. 92.8% of the COVID-19 deaths were associated with a pre-existing comorbidity. The risk of mortality associated with at least one comorbidity combined was 1113 times higher than that with no comorbidity. The comparative analysis identified nine comorbidities with odds ratios of up to 35 times higher than no comorbidities.”
            https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34449622/

            Claiming to “fact check” that statement is just highlighting the stupidity of those fact checks. The point is not whether they were vaccinated or not, or whether the exact percentage of 75% applied to everyone or just the vaccinated (so if the unvaccinated were 95% with 4 co-morbidities or if 75% of unvaccinated had only 3 comorbidities your silly fact check would still be true lol) – the point was whether deaths are being counted as Covid deaths when they are in fact a result of underlying disease (vaccinated or not).

            Like what this US County was doing. The truth comes out eventually. https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/04/nearly-a-quarter-of-alameda-countys-covid-deaths-werent-due-to-covid/

          • Errr no….the point of the article YOU originally linked to revolved around the misinterpretation of a comment from the CDC regarding deaths among the unvaccinated. The “fact-check” was entirely in context. It is just you trying to conflate that with an attempt to downplay the effects of COVID. Changing the subject is your usual defence.

            You also seem to be missing the sub-text that the ratio of deaths with 4 co-morbidities among the vaccinated was vanishingly small.

            On your “new” point: Of course comorbidities contribute to the possibility of death, from any ultimate cause, not just COVID. Are you saying that COVID doesn’t kill vulnerable people as a primary cause; or is it that it is quite acceptable for people with comorbidities to shuffle off the coil prematurely? Or is it that you suggest people with comorbidities dying at the rate of “1113 times the rate of people without comorbidities” is a normal state of affairs?

            It is difficult, at the best of times, to know what point you are trying to make amid all the rubbish you come up with.

          • Jumping jack flash

            “or is it that it is quite acceptable for people with comorbidities to shuffle off the coil prematurely?”

            They could die in a stiff breeze.
            Quality of life, and all of that jazz.

            Is there zero tolerance to sickness and death now?
            If so it will be an interesting future.

          • […] the point was whether deaths are being counted as Covid deaths when they are in fact a result of underlying disease (vaccinated or not).

            Just because someone dies with a comorbidity doesn’t mean it was the comorbidity that killed them.

            You are using exactly the logic you are accusing others of, in the opposite direction.

  2. Most of the deaths still coming through are Delta cases not Omicron.
    “NSW Health, for instance, recently released a statement which suggested 74 per cent of ICU admissions since mid-December were for Delta.”
    “On Sunday, ABC in Australia reported Nepean Hospital ICU specialist Nhi Nguyen saying a significant proportion of patients in intensive care had the Delta strain.”
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/127471544/covid19-could-new-zealand-actually-eliminate-delta

    • Does that mean vaccines (for adults) are good – ie they don’t stop Omicron but Omi for the large part is low level. They do seem to reduce effects/spread of delta though. ergo boosters are then good.
      This is an honest question not a statement.

      • Its quite possible that NZ will once more eliminate covid, as Delta cases are just trickling in now. If we do, we get to be the world’s test dummy for pure Omicron. Also maybe WA if they open up to it as well. However that is likely months away, as I reckon both Leaders are probably too chicken sh*t to actually open the borders and drop isolation requirements.

        • I truly hope so. Life is pretty bloody good in WA at the moment. Plus house prices in SW WA have gone to the moon so confidence is finally back near the pre GFC high. It really is a great place to live and I think many non WA people don’t get that.
          Just as long as the wise men and women from the east (and India and China…) don’t come hunting our GST again….

  3. Meanwhile looks like sanity is set to prevail in parts of Europe (while insanity continues in others).
    Is it time to treat COVID like the flu?
    Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, for one, thinks the moment may have arrived. The leader of Spain’s government on Monday became the first leader of a major European country to call on the European Union to debate the possibility of treating COVID-19 as an endemic illness akin to the flu.
    https://fortune.com/2022/01/11/flu-omicron-spain-eu-covid-endemic/

    • Not everyone agrees. From the same article:

      “It’s premature to talk about the ‘flu-ization’ of COVID,” said Daniel López-Acuña, a former director at the WHO, in a TV interview Monday. “It is inappropriate to trivialize the sixth wave and think that we are in an endemic phase. This type of discourse does not obey a rigorous epidemiological analysis. It will happen in many months, not now.”

      Also no stop to the vaccination program, plus:

      adding Pfizer’s antiviral pill Paxlovid—of which Sánchez announced Spain’s purchase of 344,000 doses—to vaccines and “self protection” measures like masks.

      Wait on! That’s “Big Pharma” again, and I am told masks are less than useless!

      Somethings going on here…oh yeah….

      Spain’s push could also run into resistance from European countries facing higher vaccine hesitancy, like Germany, which is aiming to introduce a tough vaccine mandate, and France, where President Emmanuel Macron said he wanted to “piss off” the unvaccinated by making it nearly impossible to engage in public life.
      …………
      Spain has a vested interest in other countries adopting milder restrictions that allow for travel, as before the pandemic more than 12% of its GDP came from the tourism industry.

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Fortunately the Prime Minister of a country has more say in things than some former employee of WHO. The media really must be dredging the bottom of the pool to find these so called experts if thats the best they can do.

  4. The number of people in ICU/ventilators is thankfully not moving higher faster in NSW

    Presumably most of the deaths reduces the numbers in ICU/ ventilator.

  5. Make no mistake. Covid does kill people. Yes the data is a mess, but this fact is beyond dispute.

    The estimated infection fatality rate is around 0.15%. Something like that. That was the original strain without vaccine.

    We are probably catching 25% of cases at the moment. We are missing most.

    So NSW. 35k official cases is probably 150k in reality.

    150k x 0.15% = 225 deaths per day. However we only had 21.

    Three reasons why we are not seeing 225
    1. We are now vaccinated
    2. Omicron is more benign – some of this is the vaccine, but there is increasing evidence it is more benign per se
    3. Lag. Need to compare deaths today with estimated cases 2-3 weeks ago.

    So deaths are likely to increase (and we are starting to see that). But we are not going to see 200 per day.

    As Stalin noted, “Quantity has a quality all its own.”
    You can’t have 150k infections of anything daily without some impact.

    • My understanding is that the bulk of infections at this stage of the wave are still in the mobile, social, and generally fit and well 20 to 40 year old age cohort i.e. after kids, the least susceptible to severe disease from this attenuated version of the coronavirus (does Omicron even still fit the definition of a SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus??).
      Once it spreads into the aged care, disability and cancer wards due to under-staffing (poor conditions, sacking the unvaccinated) and under-investment (low pay, low quality one-size-fits-all PPE, failure to address ventilation), we might expect a ramp in the mortality rate. I’ve seen analysis of data from South Africa to suggest a similar pattern of spread, initially high transmission in low vulnerability groups then more delayed transmission into protected high vulnerability groups with a corresponding ramp in IFR.

  6. Jumping jack flash

    Meanwhile, Pfizer CEO comes out and says two shots useless against Omicron. 3 shots marginally better, and they’re working on a new vaccine for Omicron due out in March, which, reading between the lines means that 3 shots is next to useless as well.

    Not sure whether that is ready for distribution in March, or ready for trials. Knowing these guys the distribution will be the trial and then all the detected problems will be argued away or swept under the carpet, only to be revealed when everyone has already taken the vaccine.

    Like that small problem with affecting menstruation they said wasn’t a real problem and now it suddenly is. I really feel more confident about my 11yo daughter taking it now..

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      They will admit that 3 shots are useless around the time they bring out their new Omicron vaccine. Then you have to line up and get your two shots of the new vaccine. Until then its just a question of keeping the cat in the bag.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Exactly, the agenda is to get these shots into people to prove their “safety and effectiveness”, and no hesitancy for the new mRNA vaccines.

        No other, older types of vaccines need apply for consideration either. AZ got lucky because it was pretty much first off the rank.

    • Why doesn’t Pfizer save time and develop the trial results while they develop the new vaccine? This way the public could have the wool on their eyes and the vaccine in their arms much earlier.

      • I think we have a new sociological phenomena in evidence.

        It’s the Dunning-Karyn effect…..

        • One of the fear merchants (Lambking) proposed 27k deaths if we had let it rip, that data looks right. Australia spent $503B on the CV-19 response. That’s $18.6M per life saved.

          Most of those lives saved were elderly (above average life expectancy according to ABS) of 86yrs for those that didn’t survive.

          Genuine question , would you rather see $503B invested into the youth of Australia or to save elderly co-morbid?

          • Australia spent $503B … $503B invested

            Money flows don’t mean very much to me.

            Can you explain what REAL RESOURCES were allocated to covid response, and which REAL RESOURCES were therefore not available to be allocated elsewhere.

            eg Did 1000 tour guides become 1000 nursing assistants and we got less tours but more nursing during the period?
            eg Did we consume 1,000,000 litres of fuel in ambulances instead of one aeroplane joyrides?

            My analysis indicates we consumed similar amounts of food but people stayed at home instead of doing BS jobs in an office. $503B fooey.

            Genuine answer: I would prefer to see more real resources allocated to the wellbeing of young people rather than the luxuries of old people.

          • So….someone who accurately (according to you) predicted 27k premature deaths due to a largely preventable disease, is a “fear-merchant”. Yeah….you don’t seem to have taken a certain position on the topic at all.

            Anyway, as the Claw suggested, not sure how much was directly spent on saving oldies. Most of it seemed to end up with big business, which is BAU, just with a slightly different nuance.

            At the start of the day, I would have preferred if the Feds had spent just $10bn on border integrity and strict quarantine. They squibbed it; look what it cost instead. Penny-wise, pound foolish. We could be the united state of WA now. Yes, I said that back at the start, and I am still saying it.

            Omicron was a lucky random event. Close the borders now.

            You try to make it all boil down to a binary choice, when it is infinitely more complex. You want to make it appear to be a simple choice between one aged life, and one youthful life, when it’s not.

            Sorry….that’s just a beat-up Gareth. Maybe you are a journalist?

    • What’s to respond to? If you read the article, the doctor says that there is a rare treatable condition to look out for after COVID, but she and her colleagues aren’t worried about looking after a wave of sick kids with severe COVID, basically because it doesn’t happen.

      “Most children have fairly good outcomes with COVID — they get a very mild illness. When they get COVID acutely, they hardly ever get really unwell.”

      She also says she worked with kids sick with COVID in London late last year – when the dominant variant would have been Delta, not Omicron. Omicron is associated with 50-70% less hospitalisations and deaths in adults than Delta.

  7. blindjusticeMEMBER

    South australia just added 7 taking today’s tally to 49. Once Queensland catches up you can add a few more.

    Based on very limited data, from the UK
    A total of 57 people has been reported to have died within 28 days of an Omicron COVID-19 diagnosis up to 29 December 2021. The median time from Omicron specimen date to death was 5 days (range 0 to 14)

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjmqNnhoqv1AhW0lNgFHZmlDhsQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw34FjZY4mVZ0FdtA_QyhrMB

    So based on approx 100k cases 5 days ago- 7th jan. If the case numbers are reliable….
    At 100 to 200k cases a day it’d take months to get through this. 4 to 8 months assuming every single person gets it.

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      Sa cases are from multiple days.

      Could still expect in the region of 30 to 40 a day nationwide. On the optimistic side too I suspect

    • That median of 5 days is very low, and skewed by
      1. The fact many were incidental. They were admitted with a stroke or heart attack or whatever, and were diagnosed with Covid as part of admission screening.
      2. Long delays processing tests.

      Covid doesn’t kill within 5 days. 2-3 weeks is more reasonable (was median 17 days with delta last year)

      Could reverse death numbers to estimate cases.
      I suspect IFR is now 0.03% maybe even less).

      So 21 deaths / 0.03% = 70,000 infections were occurring each day 2-3 weeks ago.

      • Jumping jack flash

        yes the media breathlessly reports cases.
        The problem was when they are reporting tens of thousands of new cases per day there were just hundreds of hospitalised, and tens of people in ICU.
        22,000 new cases in QLD today. 30 in ICU, 500 in hospital. How many of those are precautionary or incidental?
        Oh, the humanity.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “A total of 57 people has been reported to have died within 28 days of an Omicron COVID-19 diagnosis”

      Nice if they also applied this timespan to the vaccines… My father’s stroke was 2 weeks after his first AZ dose. Not enough evidence to prove anything.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      If date from testing to death is only 5 days, what are the chances that those 57 were some of the people who were admitted to hospital for other reasons (ie. they were dying), then subsequently tested positive for Covid?

    • UK and USA almost certainly > 1 million cases per day. They don’t have the ability to diagnose that number.

      The official Aust figure today is around 110,000. That doesn’t include positive but unreported RATS. Nor does it include those unable to get a test (or who have given up). Not asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic who are not getting tested. So total cases likely to be 300,000 – 400,000.

      Scale up for UK and USA population. Then maybe double for winter.
      So UK will be > 1 million daily, and multiple millions for USA.

      Omicron isn’t going to last 4-8 months. There will likely be another variant(s) by then.

      • Seems likely there will be another variant.

        Wonder why we keep hearing the meme that Omicron is (already endemic) or undoubtedly shortly to achieve endemicity?

        • The concern is something with omicron transmissibility and beta pathogenicity. Both beta and omicron surfaced in S Africa.

          It’s all very odd. Phylogenetic analysis suggests omicron is not a descendant of Wuhan or one of the major variants since, but rather a cousin. And the rate of mutation suggests the common ancestor was prior to 2019.

          This story isn’t going away

          https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/release/comer-jordan-faucis-emails-raise-questions-of-lab-leak-cover-up/

          WASHINGTON—House Committee on Oversight and Reform Ranking Member James Comer (R-Ky.) and House Committee on the Judiciary Ranking Member Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) today called for a transcribed interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci after new information reveals he may have concealed information from government officials about COVID-19 originating from the Wuhan lab and the virus possibly being genetically manipulated. The new information also indicates Dr. Fauci and former Director of the National Institutes of Health Dr. Francis Collins may have colluded with other scientists to downplay the lab leak theory

          Fauci (and Daszak) seems immune to any censure regarding him misleading Congress. My suspicion is USA realised this research was going to happen, and better to be involved than outside the tent. I doubt Fauci had any prior knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 before it appeared in January. But he quickly realised what must have happened. USA had 2 choices
          1. Publicly accept CCP nonsense about market
          2. Publicly accuse CCP of an act of war – without proof but having to concede USA was implicated if it turned out to be true.

          They likely hoped it could be contained. Then that they could vaccinate the world out of it. Variant after variant put paid to those hopes. But by then they could hardly backtrack.

          Fauci and Daszak seem safe as they were acting at behest of USA government. A case of hang together or hang separately.

          What a mess.

          • Yes; noted the phylogenetic eccentricity of Omicron before. Shot right out of the “tree” from origins unknown.

            Seems most of the VOCs were a bit of a surprise. None of which suggests to me that Omicron will attain endemicity, or that we won’t see other variants with different attributes. Guess we can wait and see….

            I can’t find any rational person who thinks the lab in Wuhan was not involved. Fauci is a very creepy man…..and as for Daszak…if he is not the epitome of the “shadowy figure”, I don’t know who is. Not sure we will ever get to the bottom of that.

          • Three near simultaneous N501Y mutations on 3 different continents (alpha in UK, beta in S Africa and gamma in Brazil) was a surprise – especially given global travel was severely constrained at that time.

  8. Any data on adolescents?

    The case for vaccinating kids doesn’t seems to stack up. It seems risky and that’s not even taking into account any long term side effects to immunity and vital organs.

    Happy to be proven wrong on this.

    • I read an article that said Pfizer wants to get its jab listed on the vaccine schedule for children in the USA because then Pfizer will not be liable for any vaccine injuries.

      The article said that Pfizer elites know the jab is doing a lot of damage and they fear being sued. They are exempt from being sued if the jab is under emergency use, or listed on the vaccine schedule.

      This article suggested that the elites would do their utmost to avoid the jab getting ordinary approval before it gets on the vaccine schedule. In that case Pfizer would be liable for vaccine injuries.

      • I think that claim was made by Senator Kennedy.

        Disturbing if true.

        Pfizer failed to follow established clinical trial protocols and compressed vaccine development into 12 months when it should normally take between 5-10 years. Animal testing was skipped.
        The control group was deleted after only a few months.
        Phase II/III trials have been combined using a mass rollout and the control group was deleted after a few months.
        The FDA refuse to release clinical trial data within a reasonable time frame and needs to be ordered by a US court to do so.
        The Australian Government has already established compensation scheme for deaths and injuries caused by the vaccine.

        But it’s all cool. Just take the vaccine.