Morrison’s third recession puts full stop on his government

It’s amusing to watch, in the usual sense of not being amusing at all. The Australian economy is in another COVID lockdown shock. This time triggered by the private sector.

Like the Delta wave shock, it will deliver a much deeper economic blow than it had to thanks to the routine blundering of the Morrison Government.

The shock is to both the demand and supply sides of the economy and it is deep:

As I noted in mid-December when the OMICRON wave first hit Newcastle and it shut down, the same was coming in short order to our major capital cities.

The CBA suggests it will be brief:

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said it was “far too early” to say the drop in spending will have a long-lasting negative impact on the economy.

He estimated there could be as many as 1 million people isolating in NSW – out of a population of 8 million – who cannot spend money on services or goods, other than what they can have delivered to their home.

“The faster case surge, the more people are self-isolating at any point in time, the more you’re going to have a very concentrated negative hit to spend in the economy,” he said.

Mr Aird expected spending will bounce back once the peak of infections passes and people recover from their illness.

True. OMICRON cases will peak by the end of February. But the shock will not pass quickly enough to save growth for the quarter. Ahead are a series of peaks and declines in OMICRON cases as the first wave tops out then gets a second wind from the return to school of Morrison’s millions of unvaccinated kids. Overall, the OMICRON wave will last longer than it has internationally because Australians have locked down more but it will still likely be over before the end of Q1.

As such, there are two pieces of good news to share as we look forward into 2022. The first is that OMICRON is likely going to end the pandemic soon. It is so contagious that it is unlikely that we’ll see a more virulent coronavirus mutation that can compete.

Second, the third Morrison Government recession in as many years will finish off his government. This is not news. Morrison’s rape protection racket, selling of climate change to a blood sucking gas cartel, ceaseless pillaging of public funds, total failure of pandemic policy, general psychopathy, so on and so forth, has already damned his government. But there is nothing like a good old recession with falling house prices to put a full stop on a government’s exit.

Indeed, in no year of the disgraced Morrison Government has it failed to deliver a recession.

In year one, it was the COVID shock made much worse by Frydenberg’s over-tightening.

In year two, it was the DELTA shock made hugely worse by Morrison’s vaccine policy calamity.

In year three, it is the OMICRON shock made hugely worse by Morrison’s testing calamity and cheerleading of NSW’s pandemic mistakes.

The sooner we put this combined biological and political sickness behind us the better.

Houses and Holes
Latest posts by Houses and Holes (see all)

Comments

  1. Welcome back Dave. I hope you had a good break. It sure looks like it’s going to be an…errmmm…interesting/amusing year, socially, politically and economically.

  2. desmodromicMEMBER

    “It is so contagious that it is unlikely that we’ll see a more virulent coronavirus mutation that can compete.” HnH that’s a big call. What is the basis for that observation given that getting Delta didn’t protect from Omicron? Any virologists here?

    • Yes, I’m a bit doubtful of that too, perhaps HnH means temporarily end the pandemic. All the virology and epidemiology experts I’ve read suggest there will be new variants in the future. It’s the very meaning of endemic.

      • There will almost certainly be other variants. Will they be as transmissible as Omicron, not likely. This one is unstoppable with a high R0, likely to be somewhere around Measles. We don’t have the data yet, but early estimates are between 8 & 15. It simply cannot be contained.
        The good news is once we have this wave go through, natural immunity will provide protection against significant severe disease in all but the most comorbid for future variants. The Latest CDC data indicates that among vaccinated, 78% of deaths had at least 4 comorbidites. This does not take into account Omicron being less severe that Delta.
        Natural immunity provides immunity from other parts of the virus, not just the spike protein which has many changes in this variant. These other components show far less variation than the spike, providing more epitopes for your body to fight the virus.

        Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Outcomes Among Persons Aged ≥18 Years Who Completed a Primary COVID-19 Vaccination Series — 465 Health Care Facilities, United States, December 2020–October 2021

        What is added by this report?
        Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.

        • I think most virologists think any new variant will most likely have the same transmissiblity as if omicron does infect virtually everyone the pool which it will mutate from will be hugely skewed towards a very transmissible virus, it’s unlikely to self select lower transmissiblity, and if it does it’s most likely another mutated variant that is still highly transmissible will out compete the lower transmissible variant. Though a lot of variables.

          Looking forward to that natural immunity you mention kicking in😊

        • No such thing as natural immunity unless you consider a few months of diminished response immunity. BTW don’t believe anything out of the CDC as its Morrison grade obfuscation.

        • Why are you still pushing the term ***herd immunity*** when there is no such thing e.g. you can catch the same variant more than once and being infected to one variant does not automatically grant protection from new variants i.e. there are cases of people having covid 4x now and reports of 5x. This will not be the last variant and no one knows what the next will be like, not to mention multiples moving around the planet.

          For goats sack the past economic doctrine was based on some semblance of environmental stability and cannot contend with a natural force that blows through populations and continents at will. Two years and 3 major variants with many more on offer ….

          Now go look and the long covid numbers and consider how that will further effect things down the road.

    • Viruses usually follow a path of least resistance in their evolution. If a virus evolves in such a way that it reproduces more successfully by being less virulent, then it will take that path.. New variants will probably come and go, some may be more virulent but ultimately, this is how pandemics usually end.

      • desmodromicMEMBER

        Thanks Hixtar, that makes sense in the long run. One wonders how much time that will take and how many ‘bumps in the road’ as new variants come and go.

      • Very true, just hope the omicron transmissibility doesn’t jump into some animal that hosts a highly deadly, to humans, coronavirus eg MERS and back into humans.

    • Variants are evolving all the time. Its possible to get infected with more than one of them at a time I’m sure – what’s stopping it? Its also possible for those variants to be just as transmissible. Especially given the imperfect immune response to a respiratory virus. The more transmissible a virus is the faster variants get produced as well as each jump gives it more chance to mutate. Omnicron is milder than delta since it came from Alpha but that isn’t saying much – its still probably worse than the flu and more like other COVID variants. Delta is still circulating as well.

      If a virus is ultra transmissable then there is no pressure for it to evolve to be less severe, especially if symptoms are delayed and you are infectious in the delay. For it to evolve to be less deadly (random walk) the less deadly ones need to have a significant advantage, immunity to one must help against the other AND the other must be unable to stand up on its own. I’m not totally convinced this is the case at the moment.

      WA is looking like the way to handle things – I just wish it was employed Australia wide so at least in this country there would be open borders, less divisions and we could move forward as one nation vs them vs us. With adequate and well funded (i.e. even luxurious) quarantine supply travel would still be quite possible too.

    • Anders Andersen

      “HnH that’s a big call. What is the basis for that observation given that getting Delta didn’t protect from Omicron? Any virologists here?”

      CDC said these claims cannot be substantiated, that the idea viruses become less virulent is not the case, similar comments from a Yale Med School Dr and an EU expert as well as others.

      “I mean will boost herd immunity and become endemic. Yes, there will be new strains but their importance will wane.”

      The Yale Dr said that it was just as likely for the virus to evolve to remain very infectious but cause serious illness without killing.

  3. MerkwürdigliebeMEMBER

    Its weird you know. I was out with a group of people on Friday – all fairly moderate, professional and well educated. The ScoMo government was openly reviled across the board, but there was a lot of suspicion about Albanese and the ALP. Maybe I am plugged into the wrong circles but at least in Geelong this is my sense of where the electorate is at.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      It didn’t need to be like this. All the Government had to do to avoid this was appoint Khawaja as Treasurer. Or Health Minister.

    • Mostly because “B-b-b-b-but Labor!” has been the theme song for most media whenever the LNP are in power for the better part of twenty years now. They are pretty much entirely captured by conservatives and centrists.

      The hypothetical bad things a “left” Government might do are always framed as much worse option than the actual bad things a “right” Government are doing.

        • It’s hard to inspire when any attempts to do so will be maliciously misrepresented by basically everyone with influence (and their hordes of followers).

          I don’t agree with a small target policy philosophically, but from a pragmatic perspective it is understandable. Can’t do anything without being elected, etc, etc.

          • Yes, though I wonder if enough of the typical voters well realise that Josh spent gazzillions of “tax payers” money, blew a massive deficit, ie all the things LNP used to claim Labor would do which would be a disaster & yet we have the fastest rising house prices & a “strong” economy. Will the hoi polloi realise it doesn’t actually have to lead to a disaster? (though it certainly could, and will drag on the economy in coming years, one way or another, some section of the populace will have to pay). But would be funny if the LNP actions destroy their own narrative!

      • working class hamMEMBER

        It was a compelling story.
        The constant drone of Lab giving away all the money, during the GFC. Wonder if the same “better financial leadership” tripe will hold water this time around, surely not.

        • It will. Assuming the Libs’ malfeasance is even examined in the first place, even the worst examples will be glossed over to highlight the minor wins.

          Whereas with Labor, this pattern is reversed. Because the bar is always higher for the “left” (be they “real left” or “fake left”).

          • Agree, plenty of people will still believe. At least this time the LNP are still in power when the recession they created takes effect, due to lag of economic policy it normally meant Labor suffered the effects. The big question is will Albo be able to convince Aussies when they vote for Labor’s potential 2nd term in 2025 that the massive deficit Josh has left us was a) a drag on the economy or b) it doesn’t matter & Labor can do the same?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Bradfield the bluest of blue seats held by chinless wonder Paul fletcher has for the first time I can remember an independent running . One of her big issues is a federal integrity commission. Hope she does well .

    • Tell Geelong, that the Morrison-Albanese Government will be returned with a comfortable majority, just in time for King Charles’ first visit in June, to officially rename Aspen Island as Queen Elizabeth II Island. How good is Australia?

    • Maybe I am plugged into the wrong circles but at least in Geelong this is my sense of where the electorate is at

      It’s Geelong, it’s an outlier by definition.

      Here is the 2019 electoral map – https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/11127282-16×9-2150×1210.jpg

      The anomaly is the NT…. the rest tells the story….

      Outside of the inner cities where the self-flagellating boomer has to ALP for peer approval, where else is red?

      The unter valley out of legacy, and the ‘public-sector employment-or die’ bottom feeding areas of Eden Monaro, Gilmore, certain seats is Tasmania, and the areas surrounding Geelong.

      Why is the blue of SW Western Australia, the same as the blue of Mt Gambier, the same as the blue of Launceston, the same of the blue of the seat if Hughes, the same blue of Wright in QLD?

      Because the one thing they have in common is, as productive people, an excessive burden to carry everyone else.

      It was MB’s biggest miss of 2019, their misinterpretation of QLD.

      The ALP has signalled “productive people “aren’t paying their fair share”….

      I would suspect Geelong folk would be tone deaf to this, living in the public sector belt.

      • Can we have some objective and measurable criteria as to what qualifies as a “productive” and “non-productive” electorate, to test the theory ?

        Because I’m looking at the Gold Coast and wondering what it is they “produce”.

        • Sure, once it is demonstrated that every vote is cast upon objective grounds. Then it would be very important .

          If the criteria though is a subjective viewpoint, and it’s this subjectivity which sways votes, then I would be framing it as this point of subjectivity.

          One thing for sure, a welfare recipient, by definition, is non-productive.

          When a party runs an entire policy suite solely and exclusively on transfer payments, that’s an appeal to the non-productive at the expense of’ the ‘self-assessed’ productive.

          But one thing can be a rule of thumb… surplus is obtained, rom which transfers payments can be extracted.

          Because I’m looking at the Gold Coast and wondering what it is they “produce”

          I’m not surprised… people who understand even the most basic elements of what constitutes an economy aren’t green voters.

          PRODUCT /ˈprɒdʌkt/ noun

          A good or service which is the result of an action or process.

          Now as far as I know, there are a lot of services there on offer, which appeal to those who seek to spend their leisure time in a certain way. We call this leisure time ‘holidays’…

          We don’t normally find these in communist countries, so you may need to expand your references.

          If people ‘volunteer’ to acquire these service products, money is typically exchanged.

          • Sure, once it is demonstrated that every vote is cast upon objective grounds. Then it would be very important .

            You’re the one seemingly arguing people are making a decision based on an objective analysis of policy around productivity…

            If the criteria though is a subjective viewpoint, and it’s this subjectivity which sways votes, then I would be framing it as this point of subjectivity.

            Right. So your argument is actually that people are voting based on how they feel, but you’re trying to frame it as some sort of rational analysis ?

            One thing for sure, a welfare recipient, by definition, is non-productive.
            When a party runs an entire policy suite solely and exclusively on transfer payments, that’s an appeal to the non-productive at the expense of’ the ‘self-assessed’ productive.

            Well, that at least is something vaguely measurable. So we can look at the percentage of welfare recipients in electorates. (Or at least we could, it seems that data is no longer published.)

            What counts as “welfare” though ? Pension ? Disability ? Familiy Tax Benefits ? Jobseeker ? Medicare ? Subsidies to businesses ? CGT discounts ? Or just the dole ? Does a partial dole count or is it only the entirely unemployed ?

          • You’re the one seemingly arguing people are making a decision based on an objective analysis of policy around productivity…

            Umm, I’m not. I pretty much made that clear in the line …at the expense of’ the ‘self-assessed’ productive.

            Right. So your argument is actually that people are voting based on how they feel, but you’re trying to frame it as some sort of rational analysis ?

            Subjectivity isn’t a synonym for irrational. What every tax payers knows is when a prospective government proposes to spend more, it’s an increase increase in taxes which are required to pay for it.

            Here’s the point of aversion….

            Well, that at least is something vaguely measurable. So we can look at the percentage of welfare recipients in electorates. (Or at least we could, it seems that data is no longer published.)

            I’m satisfied the reading primary votes in each seat tells the story.

            What counts as “welfare” though ? Pension ? Disability ? Familiy Tax Benefits ? Jobseeker ? Medicare ? Subsidies to businesses ? CGT discounts ? Or just the dole ? Does a partial dole count or is it only the entirely unemployed ?

            Well put it this way, there is a certain category of people who need taxpayers so they can survive.

            The taxpayer doesn’t need these certain types of people.

            It’s a one way dependency.

          • Umm, I’m not. I pretty much made that clear in the line …at the expense of’ the ‘self-assessed’ productive.

            No, not really.

            Subjectivity isn’t a synonym for irrational. What every tax payers knows is when a prospective government proposes to spend more, it’s an increase increase in taxes which are required to pay for it.

            Yet they keep voting in those big-spending, high-taxing LNP Governments. Even though all that spending isn’t really helping the average punter much, and basically all of those lower taxation benefits are going to the wealthy and high income minority.

            I’m satisfied the reading primary votes in each seat tells the story.

            I’m sure, since it completes your circular argument.

            ‘Productive people vote for the LNP. You can tell they’re productive people because they voted for the LNP.’

            There’s a similarly circular refutation:

            “It’s clear that LNP voters aren’t voting for the LNP because of their policies when those policies are targeted at a minority of voters.”

            Well put it this way, there is a certain category of people who need taxpayers so they can survive.

            The taxpayer doesn’t need these certain types of people.

            The top 1% ?

            Predictable after a decade or two of entry-level labour being completely smashed, and suffering flat-out abusive levels of un/underemployment and loss of job security, they’re the ones that need to be punished some more. As we’re living right now, things start going a bit skewif when the people at the bottom of the tree start to disappear from the economy.

      • MerkwürdigliebeMEMBER

        but but but….

        House prices are flying along. People are queuing in their droves to migrate here from Melbourne. I met a woman who has moved here from Sydney last week, she said she liked it. And Deakin has a government funded Carbon fibre technology centre. And Bells Beach.

        And every last pontificating ballsaching babyboomer on the planet wants to be here. The hospital is good. There are 18 mole map joints, and more wellness and spa centres nearby than you can poke a stick at.

        Like what planet are you on?

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          That’s because Melbourne is good at the moment. The weather’s doable, roads are clear, shops aren’t an episode of Squid Game. The bad bits disappear under lockdown. Especially for the oldies.

          When it’s open and the third-world sh!thole character appears then all bets are off.

      • Anders Andersen

        “The taxpayer doesn’t need these certain types of people.

        It’s a one way dependency.” lolololololol

        No, not really considering we have policies that work at keeping the UE rate at 5% or thereabouts, to keep the foot on the throat of inflation (NAIRU). If we get rid of these “freeloaders” i.e. have an UE rate of 0% what will happen to demand and inflation?

        Neoliberalism has an innate need for “freeloaders”.

        • lolololololol

          No, not really considering we have policies that work at keeping the UE rate at 5% or thereabouts, to keep the foot on the throat of inflation (NAIRU).

          Oh dear, you’re thinking for yourself again. You shouldn’t do so much of that moving forward.

          I very rarely, bordering on never, argue against the case of the unemployed. I raise thee insidious nature of NAIRU more than anyone on this sight. There are other, much more undeserving recipients, of other types of welfare, than the unemployed.

          Additionally, this is a statement of sentiment…. which is… Why are the Labour receiving the lowest ever rate of the primary vote in their history…

          it aint “Da MuRDoch MeDIa [email protected]#!#!#”

          “If we get rid of these “freeloaders” i.e. have an UE rate of 0% what will happen to demand and inflation?

          The natural rate of unemployment is zero…. so that’s not a natural cause.

          Maybe we will start to look at things like monetary supply and and need to invest surplus into productive assets…. like the theory says ?!?

          If you do, inflation is then very easy to fix.

          Neoliberalism has an innate need for “freeloaders”.

          Yes, yes it does.

          So does Marxism, Feminism, (anti)racism, environmentalism, etc, etc….

          Well, everything except for capitalism really.

          • You: “One thing for sure, a welfare recipient, by definition, is non-productive.”

            Well I’ll be damned, the UE aren’t welfare recipients; if you have other welfare recipients in mind I’d have thought you’d be more specific!

            The rest is just crap, especially the capitalist comment, next you’ll be saying Financial Planners are productive instead of parasitic.

    • Nah! Geelong! Full of Cats supporters!

      For a more representative sample you need to mix with Dees people my friend. Cleaners, chalet owners and carpenters doctors engineers we have them all

  4. Watch Don’t Look Up. Movie clearly depects the times we are living in.

    Close the borders
    Slam shut immigration
    Build out quarantine facilities
    Hand out RATs so every gets tested in a timely manner

    Everyone on the east coast has a dig at WA. Only place I want to be during this pandemic.

    You can’t have a sucessful economy with sick people.

    • WA’s time will come. Once the Omicron wave has swept the rest of the world, interest in new vaccines (if even possible) to stop transmission will flatline. If WA is holding out for some sort of vaccine or treatment to protect the population they will be closed off from the rest of the world for years.
      I’d love to hear how WA can have any meaningful opening to the world and keep out Omicron. Explain it to me.

      • So what we have is better?

        Please tell me how. This cognative dissonace among the population is what keeps giving us terrible politicians.

        Thank god we have all those different cuisines in Victoria. Saving the day.

      • Does it need to? This “opening up to the world”… what does it do for the average joe? This belief that we need to be totally open to the world I just can’t understand – it is also a very recent privilege (20 years max its been affordable to most people). The majority of people travel extremely rarely. However they do live day to day – visit shops, health facilities, travel to work, etc. Should we trade “opening up to the world” for “I can’t function day to day” like what is happening on the east at the moment? Seems like a bad cost/risk vs benefit tradeoff unless of course you count on migration to prop up your economy.

        Besides adequate quarantine means you aren’t closed from the world. You just travel maybe half as often to cater for the isolation period in your leave balance.

        • I think you might be underestimating the value of cheap SE Asia holidays to Howards Battlers. It is (was?) usually cheaper than holidaying domestically in raw $$$ terms.

          20 years is a long time as well. I think you might also be underestimating how many people have taken advantage of cheap air travel. Almost everyone I know has been on at least a couple of overseas holidays and probably half have lived overseas or spent at least one ~6-12 month stint travelling.

          I don’t necessarily disagree with an elimination/fortress strategy, I just struggle to see how it’s practical now after so much mismanagement.

          • You may be right – but the cost isn’t borne by those people but by the rest of the community. The hospital system, the people in hospital and ones dying, workers unable to work, etc. 16 people died in NSW today for example. Supermarket shelves are empty in many places, etc. The selfishness I guess is something that constantly surprises me – haven’t built up a tolerance to it yet.

          • Because elective surgery is getting pushed a side and the food supply chain is crumbling. So it’s still important.

          • You may be right – but the cost isn’t borne by those people but by the rest of the community. 

            Well, kinda – those people are a substantial fraction of “the community”. As I said, I think you might be underestimating just how many people have taken advantage of the last 20-30 years worth of cheap air travel.

            From a quick search, it would seem approx 57% of Australians have passports. Generally speaking, you wouldn’t expect anyone to have a passport and not travel, given the effort and cost involved in getting one.

          • The way I see it I don’t think this will be the last variant/wave as long as there is the ability for it to mutate and slingshot back into Australia from overseas. The quarantine isn’t to deal with the current wave; that’s a failure for not having quarantine before that we have to deal with.

            We’ve already failed – we now have to deal with the consequences of that failure this time around. Better management now won’t save that.

            Its more to make sure this is a one-off vs epidemic every 4-6 months. I can see many more variants branching off other variants that evade our defences. I just want this story to end – at least for Australia that’s something we as a community can control.

            Not underestimating – I’ve flown too. I just haven’t had to fly. I would argue for most people with passports smithy it is discretionary – many just auto renew their passports since re-applying if they need it is more difficult. I do agree however people are accomodated to it. My argument is that if we have to give up something I would rather than than the current situation on the east coast of Australia and other parts of the world.

          • Jumping jack flash

            “The way I see it I don’t think this will be the last variant/wave as long as there is the ability for it to mutate and slingshot back into Australia from overseas.”

            Of course not. Like any and all coronaviruses it will continue to mutate, and probably mutate faster and faster until it is on par with the mutation rates of the regular flu.
            Already there are at least 2 other VOC detected simultaneous to the Omicron one. This number of simultaneous VOCs will just keep increasing.

            The important aspects are whether the new variants will be more or less likely to make people sick, how sick they are made, and whether existing measures will be effective at mitigating illness. Already we see that existing measures are falling over, but fortunately the latest variant isn’t all that good at making people very sick.

            A statistic that I’d like to know is how many people used to get sick from the regular flu, how many in hospital and how many in ICU, intubated, etc, Of course, a lot of people used to get sick with flu and also require ICU care, and that was a justification for the optional yearly flu shot booster.

            And how does this compare to Omicron where vaccines are mandatory (for all intents and purposes)?

            https://www.medpagetoday.com/resource-centers/contemporary-approaches-influenza-a-b/icu-admission-and-mortality-during-flu-season/2391

            https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics

            https://www.singlecare.com/blog/flu-statistics-infographic/

          • Anders Andersen

            “I think you might be underestimating the value of cheap SE Asia holidays to Howards Battlers. It is (was?) usually cheaper than holidaying domestically in raw $$$ terms.”

            The hypocrisy for me on this is mind boggling. We demand our “right” to cheap o/s holidays to laze about the pool and eat & drink on the cheap with the workers paid slave rates then we come home and demand our right to be paid our worth.

        • The constitution explicitly states that there will be unrestricted travel between states.

          I’m sure if you WA born and bred, no family in other states or the rest of the world and have no interest in leaving the state of WA, and don’t work in travel and tourism, life could be pretty easy.

          However, this fails to acknowledge that there are indeed severe restriction (border crossing), you just don’t personally face them on a day-to-day basis. You are completely OK with restricting others from some of the most fundamental human rights for people to see loved ones one last time, attend funerals, births and so on, so you don’t have to face day to day restrictions.

          Personally I have been revolted by the inhumanity that many state premiers have displayed over the past 2 years. WA is the last one to hold on. This isn’t the way the country was set up to work for the last 119 years. The assumption was borders would be open. The health emergency is over, we have a vaccines that reduce severe disease and death.

          CDC

          Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.

          In other words, if you are vaccinated, you are vulnerable to severe disease or death if you already vulnerable to death.

          • The constitution explicitly states that there will be unrestricted travel between states.

            It really doesn’t, as the volume of law around this point demonstrates.

          • If the politicans adtoped WA stance for Australia your argument wouldn’t hold weight. Collectivley we would have been better. Yes their would be some losers like the airlines but thats where the government comes in. How much have they spent on the pandemic so far?

            Everytime we’ve opened up with the virus around we have had a recession, it’s actually comical.

          • You could argue it the other way – the people who want that freedom are putting the majority’s freedoms at risk just so they get to do what they want to do vs sticking together. The most humane people I know, who got into caring jobs, are the ones in most despair right now (health, teachers, community workers, etc) and would love for borders to be closed. Many of them anecdotally mention WA as somewhere they wish they could be seeing that place as a leader that “cares for its people”. Given their struggle and stress I will take their word for it, even if they are a silent majority who just stay local, and get on with the job.

            Quarantine is a compromise – it isn’t fully closed borders. You can still see your loved ones, you might just have to wait 2 weeks. That doesn’t always work, but given the cost/risk you are putting on the community its not that big of a deal if a minority of people at any particular time need to do this.

            The selfishness of wanting a freedom at the huge expense to the rest of the community I argue could also be completely as you put it “inhumane”. I’m not going to comment on your other points, the numbers on the east vs the west speak for themselves w.r.t effectiveness and disruption to the economy, health and lives. One strategy is obviously working well than the other. Instead of politics trust the numbers – the economy in NSW performing the same as it did in lockdown, the hospitals in code red, infected nurses being put to work, etc etc etc.

            Also if other states adopted this we would of dealt with the virus at least between states some time ago and the measure at least domestically could be temporary. We could of then opened up at least domestically with as I said “open borders”. Quarantine between states has only arisen – lets be honest because of media pressure and NSW quarantine being so leaky. They didn’t really take it seriously.

        • Frank DrebinMEMBER

          Your understanding of how WA’s border control works is incorrect.

          They have obstructed 100’s if not 1000’s of WA residents from entering their home state even if they have been double/triple vaxxed, test negative via PCR before flying and have a residence to self-quarantine in. Applications that fit all these criteria are frequently denied for no rationale (and no recourse) whatsoever.

          The border controls are no longer based on sound health policy.

          McGowan’s megalomania is now verging on dangerous.

          • Agree to disagree. I don’t need to resort to emotive words.

            – The economic numbers of WA vs NSW for example speak for themselves.
            – The majority of voters in WA right now from what i can see in polls overwhelmingly support continued closures.
            – Health numbers are in the under 10’s per day (WA) vs 20,000 day everywhere else. No health system with large amount of funding could ever take that exponential growth without it totally bankrupting the taxpayer (linear scaling, vs exponential risk factor). Health already is one of the largest spend areas by all governments.

            The results/numbers speak for themselves. It may eventually get in, but it will get in slower, and less often meaning the complications of repeated infections from multiple variants are significantly less likely.

            Vaccines are in all other states. We are one of the most vaxxed countries now. The numbers above however, and some of the death reports coming out of other states and overseas at the moment show more risk measures are required to get it to the point of the population’s risk tolerance. Want evidence of most people’s risk tolerance? See NSW’s “unofficial lockdown” right now – people are voting in the majority with their feet.

            Having WA as a proven counterfactual to the rest of the countries policies I’m sure grates many of the “open up” pushers (i.e. most media outlets) hence the media pressure on the COVID zero states. More readers, more advertising revenue, many are aligned with the Liberals. They have a bias to make them open up. I’m just going with the data/basic factors.

          • Anders Andersen

            Frankly, you’re talking out of your bum hole! The medical advice from the CHO has been followed, which is why we have the entry restrictions we have and not one successful court challenge of them yet. You may want to believe otherwise, but that’s confirmation bias for ya.

          • Frank, I don’t think you’ll find that west australian’s are totally supportive of how everything has been handled, especially the exceptional circumstances area. I don’t that’s been handled any different to how the CHO has advised, I think they should have been more compassionate and done more quarantining or something.

            In addition the treating of Indians holding citizenship and others wanting to return home by the Fed gov was disgusting.

            I didn’t vote for MM at the last election as I liked ZK policies which I thought were more what a Labor gov should have been doing, but since he got re-elected he’s surprised me, I thought he’d open the borders quick smart.

      • Jumping jack flash

        “Once the Omicron wave has swept the rest of the world, interest in new vaccines (if even possible) to stop transmission will flatline.”

        Agree, these current vaccines are pretty much useless and boosters only really give 4 weeks of rapidly diminishing protection. After 4 weeks it drops to between 40 and 50% effectiveness and then becomes statistical noise at 10 weeks. This booster programme is a last-ditch effort for the vaccine companies to prove their relevance. Their day in the sun is pretty much over and the necessity for Omicron-specific vaccines is pretty much zero. I predict around April it will all be over, unless there’s a new variant that is more dangerous and blasts through Omicron’s protections.

        The important point for the vaccine companies and researchers was whether their mRNA vaccines have proven themselves to be safe and effective during this year-long global clinical trial. If so, then expect mRNA vaccines being developed for everything, they have definite benefits for reducing production costs, and the speed at which they can be altered. If not, then it will be a case of the companies resuming proper trials again to prove the technology, that usually takes about 10 years.

        • Sorry to burst yor bubble. The vaccine isn’t useless.

          I have had 2 shots of AZ and a booster of Pfizer – I caught covid on NYD and my symptoms have been almost 0.

          Slight head ache at the start, no real cough, not even a proper sore throat, not even a fever just slight muscle pain.

          What I am greatful is that the virus is no longer noval to my immume system, so upwards from here.

          • Jumping jack flash

            Excellent! Glad to hear you’re safe.

            Of course different people are affected differently. Pretty sure the current science says that 2 shots and prior infection aren’t all that effective, and there are lots of variables, of course. Latest study I read this morning shows booster 70% reducing to 40% efficacy over 4 weeks.

            Individual results may vary.

          • Luke, feeling average for a day and then a mild sore throat were what the majority of people got vaccinated or not…. Majority would have been fine with NO vaccine at all. BTW , we should stop calling it a vaccine.

          • Jumping jack flash

            South Africa not having any major complications and past their peak now. Minimal hospitalisations, many of them precautionary. Around 20% double vaxxed, I believe.

            I think vaccinations aren’t a major contributing factor based on these figures. A lot of what has been said around the effects of double vaccinations reducing Omicron illness severity has been pretty non-definite, using language like “may” and “possibility” and “more research/studies required”. In fact it has been explicitly stated on many occasions that double vaccinations and prior infection has no effect, and boosters are required.

            We need to look at what people do, not at what they say. There are many agendas in play, some of them are noble of course like not causing a general panic, but others are purely selfish and aimed at lining the vaccine companies’ pockets, or desensitising people to the idea of experimental mRNA vaccines in general, which are cheaper to produce and alter on a per-vaccine basis compared to traditional vaccines.

          • Jumping Jackfish, put some context around your sample data.

            South Africas median age is 27.6 and Australia is 37.

          • Sorry to burst yor bubble. The vaccine isn’t useless.

            I have had 2 shots of AZ and a booster of Pfizer – I caught covid on NYD and my symptoms have been almost 0.

            Slight head ache at the start, no real cough, not even a proper sore throat, not even a fever just slight muscle pain

            So the same symptoms that statistically 100% of non-vaccinated people, exposed to Omicron, suffer?

          • Jumping Jackfish, put some context around your sample data.

            South Africas median age is 27.6 and Australia is 37.

            That’s not the strong argument you think it is.

          • Well I wouldn’t kow Rusy Penny.

            Some 30 unvaxxed year old died in NSW last night, along with a baby. Why would I not take the vaccine if its there. Chances are it was the Omricon version since that is the major strain now.

        • The important point for the vaccine companies and researchers was whether their mRNA vaccines have proven themselves to be safe and effective during this year-long global clinical trial. If so, then expect mRNA vaccines being developed for everything, they have definite benefits for reducing production costs, and the speed at which they can be altered.

          This is explicitly why I have advised my child just finishing the HSC to go into this field, they were already intending a career in biological sciences arena. As someone who was dealing with adjacent technologies in the early 90’s but never came to anything, this is a technology who’s time has come. The long postulated “RNA revolution” could be enormous after this global field trial. Very few understand the possibilities that this technology holds. This is the “internet in 1994” moment.

          • As long as they can overcome the issues related to myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly in fit young men, Bell’s Palsy, strokes, menstrual disruption, heart attacks etc. And that’s just the short term issues that have come to light in the year since the tech was unleashed on the world. Who knows what the next ten years will show up?

            I think this stuff is a long way from prime time.

          • Jumping jack flash

            “Very few understand the possibilities that this technology holds.”

            It scares the bejeezus out of me. It will be a long time before I am comfortable with it.
            Certainly agree that it is the new frontier for developing medical treatments and certainly a very interesting area for research.

            “I think this stuff is a long way from prime time.”
            All that matters is perception. Everything else can be argued away or simply hidden, as the past 12 months have shown.

          • As long as they can overcome the issues related to myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly in fit young men, Bell’s Palsy, strokes, menstrual disruption, heart attacks etc. And that’s just the short term issues that have come to light in the year since the tech was unleashed on the world. Who knows what the next ten years will show u

            Don’t forget a 3000% chance increase in miscarriage… as the NHS has observed…

        • “I predict that by April it will be all over.”
          I note that so far in this 3year Covid epidemic, that all around the globe, there is a winter spike in infections.

          • Jumping jack flash

            Noted, but once again it depends on how many people are getting sick and dying. How many deaths and hospitalisations are acceptable? What is the exit strategy? IS there an exit strategy?

            Is there zero tolerance to sickness and death now? A perpetual pandemic? If so we’re in for a bit of a strange future.

        • Anders Andersen

          Maybe so, but they also have a median age of 27 because of which many infectious diseases experts say we need to tread carefully in using their experience for here.

          • Frank DrebinMEMBER

            Not at all – these are real world anecdotes and I believe many more will be in the same boat.

            Yes there are health restrictions in place but they are not being followed given the refusal to let WA residents re-enter.

            It’s a disgrace that so many WA residents support this whole heartedly, and is an extension of refusing to let Australia citizens re-enter.

            It’s one of the most shameful episodes in recent Australia history for mine, and reflects an insular and immature nation.

      • I’d love to hear how WA can have any meaningful opening to the world and keep out Omicron. Explain it to me.

        The WA workforce has found it to be a time of unparalleled employment opportunities, not seen for nearly a decade, with interstate workers prohibited. It has come with a ton of training too, as they’ve filled in gaps.

        Put it this way, there was more anger at the French backpacker for coming in, than McGowan not letting more backpackers in with relaxing the border….

    • It’s this simple. Simple low tech solutions.

      I think zero COVID has been demonised with some negative stigma by the media so people see it as a tribe they don’t want to associate with (i.e. if I post something people will think I’m weird/dismiss anything I say). We are tribal animals in the end.

      When really all it is is quarantine, ventilate, and control very small outbreaks quickly before it gets exponential and so too its costs from what I’ve seen. It doesn’t sound too radical.

  5. Ronin8317MEMBER

    According to the testing result from NSW, we are already past the peak Positive rate is now down to 24%. That being said, it has to be taken with caution because a lot of testing sites were closed last week, and nobody can buy a RAT without paying a ransom for it. The PCR testing sites are open again today, so in a few days we can be certain if it’s mere “numberwang” or a real decrease in number of cases.

  6. Jumping jack flash

    Their current rules and propaganda are centred around a reasonably slow-moving virus that lasts 2 weeks and causes severe illness.

    This new virus is the exact opposite of that so their rules need to change to accommodate it. Some progress is being made with regards to changing the rules but from what I can see these changes are being blocked at every turn, many tradeoffs and bargaining is required, and outrage level is high.

    Some of that is because the original message and rules were forced down our throats so much that we have been brainwashed to the point where we dogmatically follow the original set of rules and any lightening of those is considered as being “reckless”.

    Several important people have mentioned now that the new virus is incredibly mild but have stopped short of saying that it isn’t much of a problem, probably because of the few people that are going to still have big reactions to it, and those ones will jump up and down and point and jeer, and the media will take photographs of that and breathlessly report that those decisions to lighten the rules were bad ones.

    There is no story in good news and positivity, it is viewed as flippant and callow, only bad news and negativity is reported because it is viewed as deep, brooding, complex and meaningful.

    • Dude, you are always en pointe, on everything. Every comment you ever make is clear and i always find myself agreeing with the $h!+ out of it. Serious 🎩👌🏽

    • Jumping jack flash

      I’ve been at work for a week, but today management is back, so of course we’ve all been asked to go home.

      I have to take a ton of gear home with me.
      Also, the accreditation trial for the tech I’ve been working on has been cancelled… just amazing.

  7. This is what you get when you let the Lumpen Nazional Partei govern.
    Their leaders (and supporters alike) apparently believe that the Greek alphabet ends with “Delta”.
    Private school followed by the University of Life…

  8. “Frydenberg’s over-tightening”.
    I must’ve missed this. They threw money around like they were Labor. You wanted them to give more but your average voter won’t think he over tightened (there’s a myriad of other reasons to punt the moron but this isn’t one of them).

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now