Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are trying to bounceback after a week full of falls and fails with a sustained bounce outside of China giving some hope to North Atlantic markets as they head into the final session of the week. The USD remains very strong against most of the major currency pairs, although there are some minor signs of recovery in risk currencies like the Aussie and Loonie. Gold however, remains stuck below the $1800USD per ounce level, having played catchup overnight to other undollars and looks set to rollover further:

Mainland Chinese shares are failling back into the close with the Shanghai Composite down 0.5%, currently at 3375 points, while the Hang Seng Index is adding to its woes, down 1% to be at 23573 points. Japanese markets are coming back though with the Nikkei 225 closing 2% higher at 26717 points while the USDJPY pair is holding on to its gains, after pushing through the previous weekly high and staying elevated above the 115 handle:

Australian stocks caught a break on short covering with the ASX200 closing 2.2% lower to just finish below the 7000 point level at 6988 points, while the Australian dollar is still dicing with the key 70 handle, having dropped to a new monthly low, as the USD proves too strong:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly melting up going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a reluctance to get back above the 4400 point level as it seems anchored around the September 2021 lows at the 4250 level:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the Q4 German GDP flash print, US core PCE readings for December and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey for January.

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Comments

  1. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Listening to the wireless this avo ……many in the hospitality industry are worried that the help about to come from Dom won’t be enough
    ………cofffee shop operators have million dollar plus mortgages and now need their profits underwritten …………not sure where the money is going to come from ……..….coffee shop employees …?
    Garn straya !!

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      “cofffee shop operators have million dollar plus mortgages”

      That’s a lot of cafe lattes.

    • Well until they introduce an industry wide rating system for vegemite thickness (1 being a scrape, 5 being a generous lather) they can all GAGF. Frankly I’m tired of my breakfast being a lottery and its certainly not what my grandfather was defending when he packed his bags for the Pacific.

      • And how about making it illegal to serve anything deconstructed.
        If you are going to serve me seperate servings of plain toast, a scoop of butter and scoop of vegemite then at least knock the labour cost off the price.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        It’s cafés lack of having pecks paste on toast on the menu that disrespects my Grandfathers service in WW2 the most.
        He loved that filthy fish paste.

      • alwaysanonMEMBER

        That’s one thing that’s gotten better without the backpackers from Europe who treat Vegemite like Nutella working in the cafes

  2. Oi Swampy – Danielle Collins’ partner (and fitness coach) is former Demons player Tom Couch.

    If she beats Our Ash, I’m blaming you.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      When I was a 11yo kid, worked the paper round to buy an instrument, Our orchestra always beat the fast flashy competition in eisteddfods.
      Please don’t butcher well written pieces. Faster is not better when it comes to fine music. . Feeling is paramount.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        What instruments did you play Boom?
        He played the trumpet fast, but was great though imho

      • Faster is not better when it comes to fine music. . Feeling is paramount

        Yngwie Malmsteen” “Hold my beer”.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      I bet Putin is waiting for the cold weather to pass before he’ll make a move

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        If the Russian troops invade from the east, they actually need colder weather. It is hard to cross into Ukraine through the mud.

        • Yes, most of the experts are saying he needs to invade while the ground is still frozen, which will give him a small window of opportunity after Xi gives him the nod after the Olympics. Putin had better get used to being Xi’s lapdog if the west really does hit him with severe sanctions as Russians will have to rely on China for everything.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      I propose to create genetically modified humans who breath CO2 and exhale O2

    • “By her own calculations, using reforesting to capture Australia’s CO2 emissions for two years (about 1 billion tonnes), would require an area of land equivalent to the size of New South Wales.”

      [Me, looking at a map of Australia: “Um, do we not have the space??”]

    • A couple of years ago I did some calcs on the energy required to do this on a meaningful scale, and the energy required just to run the fkkn fans was more than the current total energy put through the global electrical grid – then you need to add the energy for the compressors or whatever, as well as that required for producing the chemicals for the CO2 scrubbers. (don’t ask me for a link, the numbers will be in one of about a dozen notebooks and I’m not going to sit down and flick through them all to find them)

  3. boomengineeringMEMBER

    THE EXODUS BACKTRACKING.
    An excellent opportunity to invest on the mid-north coast is now available.

    Nestled on three acres of flat land, this three bedroom home is available to the discerning buyer.

    The home also has a deck area, bathroom and office with an open-plan kitchen. A separate shed and covered area are located off the driveway adjacent to the house. Recently painted and a major renovation done for some minor roof issues. The property has the beginnings of a great garden with potential for a vege patch of good proportions.

    A great first home or rental property with room to grow and add to the home. The owner is moving back to Sydney and needs to get back for work commitments. The rental market is very strong with a lack of good quality rental properties so for the investor a strong return is also available from this property
    .
    .
    The owner is moving back to Sydney.!!!!

    • Potential translation —

      THE EXODUS BACKTRACKING.
      – opportunity to speculate .
      – three acres of flood-prone land
      – this land is available to the desperate buyer.
      – wtf is a major renovation done for some minor roof issues.
      – hack your way trough the scrub to the potential for a vege patch .
      – for the investor a strong return is also available from this property but don’t ask for an estimated yield
      .
      Caveat emptor.

    • Just booked a week hol at SW Rocks in Oct. road bikes , surfboards tennis racquets and golf clubs.

      • Driving up? Feel free to stop in for a cuppa (I’m about 2hr south of SWR, 25km off the freeway)

        • I’m vaccinated so he’ll probably already be in his Faraday cage

          LeMon – thanks – coming from the North. You’re around Port Mac IIRC?

    • The missus meets some interesting folk . Shes a nurse at a public hospital. Last night said she cared for a lady from rainbow beach. This lady said they’d been swamped with Victorians buying up property, when they arrive they start complaining that ‘what do you do here?’ … Fishing and looking at the water was her response, and maybe you should have done some research before you bought a house on the internet.

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Today went to my local mega corporate pharmacy to get my blood pressure tablets …….in front of me are 3 strapping young things ( one of them who can barely speak English ) all with concession cards getting their “free” RAT tests …( and no they weren’t military served vets )

    ….and I who have worked all my life and paid taxes don’t qualify for the goodies ……

    I won’t be around to worry about the debt ………but maybe I’m wrong …..if you just keep growing debt and never actually pay it back maybe it works ……….light years of debt …….what’s a lifetime eh ?

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      The fastest way to reduce high blood pressure is to fast for at least 3 days. Just drink plenty of water, and exercise. No side effects, vision improves etc, etc. Costs nothing to try.
      Please Tailor give it a shot.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        Agreed.

        I am on the program and simply am staggered by the fall in blood pressure. It was 113/69 this morning with a resting pulse rate of 49 bpm. I had to go and quickly throw down a couple of cups of coffee to recover from the shock.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Yes I’m on top of it …….sometime it gets a tad too low that t feel like falling over …..almost ready to drop the tablets

        I’m slim and fit for my age ……so hopefully I’ll get there ……

    • I’ve worked full time continuously for 39 years and I don’t have a fcking concession card either.

  5. Crypto is just the latest scheme designed to fleece the financially illiterate:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/opinion/cryptocurrency-subprime-vulnerable.html

    “According to a survey by the research organization NORC, 55 percent pf crypto investors don’t have a college degree. This matches up with anecdotal evidence that crypto investing has become remarkably popular among minority groups and the working class”

    Is it any wonder crypto investors are usually anti-vaxxers?

    • LoL. Run along Karen. You are smug and wrong and nobody cares what you think. In the future, you and those like you will be reviled and scorned and mocked. Even more than you are now.

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/01/27/no-case-remaining-covid-restrictions/

      https://thecritic.co.uk/we-all-broke-lockdown-and-we-should-have-broken-it-more/

      https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/we-were-fools-to-follow-the-rules-no-you-were-monsters/

      And when I say “In the future” I mean “Now”. Your mother was a hamster and I fart in your general direction.

        • Ah…projection. Accuse others of what you do yourself. There’s nothing like it.

          You come here and make snide insulting comparisons between crypto “investors” and thoughtful people, which is simply ludicrous. You’re being deliberately provocative, and then bizarrely wave your tiny little hands and waffle about emotions when we call you out. It doesn’t work. Neither does stamping your weeny widdle feet.

          We see you. We see your arrogance and your smug supercilious gibberish, and we know what you are. We are not duped by your false equivalences and other sophistry. We know you’d like to load us into the boxcars because we Do Not Comply With Your Wishes. We know what happened, and this time, nobody’s going peacefully.

          One day soon you’ll scurry back into your little hole, squeaking furiously about the lack of masks, and you’ll be ignored and forgotten. Justifiably. We’ve had enough of the bullsh1t being pushed by you and Fauci and Neil Ferguson. It’s coming to an end.

          • Ah…projection. Accuse others of what you do yourself. There’s nothing like it.

            You come here and make snide insulting comparisons between unvaccinated people and thoughtful people, which is simply ludicrous. You’re being deliberately provocative, and then bizarrely wave your ignorance and waffle about visceral “feelings” when we call you out. It doesn’t work. Neither does stamping your Mr Plod Adventure Shoes.

            We see you. We see your arrogance and your smug supercilious gibberish, and we know what you are. We are not duped by your false references and other sophistry. We know you’d like to load us into your narrow ideological boxes because the vaccines Do Not Comply With Your Wishes. We know what happened (and you apparently, don’t) and this time, everybody who applies commonsense will live peacefully.

            One day soon you’ll scurry back into your little hole, squeaking furiously about the lack of real men, and you’ll be ignored and forgotten. Justifiably. We’ve had enough of the bullsh1t being pushed by you and Rogan and Sen Ron Johnson. It’s coming to an end.

          • well put..I am yet to find evidence of a thoughtful anti-vaxxer.
            But they are really in touch with their feelings and are only too keen to share them.
            And they are so sure they are right.
            who needs evidence when you can emote.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    So I heard on some telly news this week that the current definition of “binge drinking “ is any time you take on board 4 standard
    drinks in one session ……..

    Back when ah were a lad that’s what you took on board before you laced your Doc Martens ……

    Discuss …….

    • *hic*
      Well, fkn, on my 8th Bundy and Coke (double shot), buying tennis stuff online . What’s teh problem with these loosers? My main gripe is you can’t buy Toyata tennis racquets anymore

    • Well, I’m on my third Jameson’s. I only pour in two fingers worth (holds up hand with index and little fingers extended)

    • 4 standard drinks is two pints of standard beer. I’d spill more than 4 standard drinks in a session when I were a young lad. I’m older now, but that’s still just More Karen Nonsense. Defining that as a “binge” is ridiculous. I had 2 pints and a pizza at the local with my Missus last weekend, then we rode our bikes home. It wasn’t a fcking binge, it was what normal people do every day. There were about 100 other people there binging with us, FFS.

      Nobody believes any of that sh1te, and nobody bases their actions on it.

      • My GP asked how much I drink,.Seemed astounded when I said up to a botle of wine a night.
        “That’s 10 standard drinks” said Doc
        “Only because you lot keep shrinking the size of a standard glass .” I replied.
        The old doc nearly fell of the chair when I said
        “My Dad used to get thru a half Gallon of penfolds dry red every night”
        He only lived to 86.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Sometimes at the parties while we finish a bag and undergo relations we have 50 standard drinks give or take some or more. It’s all part of the fun. And it ain’t binging, it’s relationsing.

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Ok. I now know soooo many people who have the China Virus. Not one of them is that sick. Not one. And not one has anything more than a bit of short term brain fart afterwards. All are aok. And I’m talking loads of peeps.

    Lock. Us. Down. now!

  8. T’was a good day to invest on the ASX if you were watching. I bought some PWH and ALU. Missed CSL at $250

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Wall Street’s Big Bet on Chinese Markets Is Going All Wrong … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/wall-street-s-big-bet-on-chinese-markets-is-going-all-wrong

    These Indicators Show Whether China Housing Clampdown Is Easing … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/china-isn-t-backing-down-on-property-clampdown-indicators-show

    • Home sales and household loans data show funding challenges
    • Access to dollar bond market remains largely cut off

    Property Crisis Means Chinese Cities Sell Land to Themselves … Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shadowy-china-firms-spend-billions-210000919.html

    China’s Property Crisis Has Investors in Green Bonds Seeing Red … Wall Street Journal

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-crisis-has-investors-in-green-bonds-seeing-red-11643349476

  10. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand 2022: The year it hits the fan. How well prepared are you ? …

    ‘It’s going to hurt’: Kiwis warned to hunker down ahead of ‘year of the squeeze’ … Kirsty Johnston … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300506540/its-going-to-hurt-kiwis-warned-to-hunker-down-ahead-of-year-of-the-squeeze

    … extract …

    … Linzey is an early childhood teacher experiencing such stagnant wages. He earns $61,000 a year. When he started the role in 2010, he was earning just a few thousand dollars less than now. In that same time, inflation has gone up and up, at 3 per cent a year and then 4 per cent and now nearly 6 per cent, but his wage increases haven’t kept up. …

    … For those with mortgages, interest rate hikes could be the final financial straw. Data from Corelogic showed roughly 60 per cent of home loans will need to be refinanced in the next year, and forecasts have interest rates doubling within six months. Rates that were 2 per cent will be at 4 or even 5 in just six months, the banks said.

    In its forecast, ANZ gave the example of a hypothetical $800,000 mortgage undergoing an increase from 2.21 per cent to 3.49 per cent. Their payments would increase by roughly $115 a week, assuming a 25-year term.

    “That’s going to hurt. And when you multiply across hundreds of thousands of borrowers, it’s a lot of disposable income suddenly taken up with increased mortgage payments.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    NZ home loan borrowers face doubled interest as 60pc of mortgages up for renewal … Geraden Cann … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/127592694/nz-home-loan-borrowers-face-doubled-interest-as-60pc-of-mortgages-up-for-renewal

    It’s not just first home buyers who may struggle with rising mortgage interest rates, existing home owners are also likely to be squeezed … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/114142/its-not-just-first-home-buyers-who-may-struggle-rising-mortgage-interest-rates

    … Following the ’07 housing crash in Ireland, its Central Bank found that excessive mortgage debt to incomes the major reason that put all its Banks to the wall (requiring a 70 billion euro bailout from German financial institutions that stood to lose the most) and capped mortgage lending to 3.5 times gross annual household income.

    Across its metros, Irelands housing had fallen from 4.7 Median Multiple to 2.8 (refer Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys – All Editions). Currently, New Zealands housing is slightly north of 9.0 Median Multiple (refer Interest Co NZ – Median Multiples) …

    Central Bank of Ireland – Mortgage Measures

    https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures

      • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

        Update … New Zealand 2022: The year it hits the fan. How well prepared are you ? …

        … Prime Minister Ardern’s net approval plummets – poll …

        Jacinda Ardern, Christopher Luxon approval ratings revealed … TVNZ

        https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/01/30/jacinda-ardern-christopher-luxon-approval-ratings-revealed/

        Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s approval rating has dropped in the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, while new National leader Christopher Luxon’s first rating has edged him ahead.

        It is the first time an Opposition leader has scored higher than the Prime Minister since the poll began asking approval ratings in 2019.

        Jacinda Ardern: 15

        Christopher Luxon: 22

        … read more via hyperlink above …

        … EXCERPT EARLY NOVEMBER 2011 GENERAL EMAIL … LESSONS FROM THE UNITED STATES …

        New Zealand Labour going forward can expect the same treatment as its Democrat pals in Virginia and New Jersey deservedly got this week (early November 2011) …

        … When can we expect New Zealand’s ‘Loony Labourites’ to be sent to ‘Woke Detox Centres’ (to borrow a James Carville’s term) … to save themselves ? …

        James Carville (Bill Clintons Chief Strategist) knows *exactly* why Democrats lost on Tuesday … Chris Cillizza … The Point … CNN
        … h/t DB …

        https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/04/politics/democrats-loss-woke-james-carville/index.html

        (CNN)James Carville knows exactly why his party lost so badly on Tuesday: “Stupid wokeness.”

        That’s the blunt diagnosis of the man who famously guided Bill Clinton to the White House in the early 1990s.

        “Don’t just look at Virginia and New Jersey,” Carville told PBS’ Judy Woodruff. “Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Washington. I mean, this ‘defund the police’ lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln’s name off of schools. I mean that — people see that.” … view and read more via hyperlink above …

        … and newly elected Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsom Sears on election night …

        AOC, Squad silent on Winsome Sears’ historic Virginia election victory … Emma Colton … Fox News

        https://www.foxnews.com/politics/squad-members-silent-winsome-sears-historic-win-virginia