See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Asian stocks fell across the region in a heavy selling day, and while it didn’t replicate the overnight steep falls in Europe or the schizophrenic actions on Wall Street, its enough to get everyone very nervous as we head into tonights Federal REserve meeting. The latest (but late, and inaccurate) Australian CPI print was much higher than expected – quelle surprise – which gave the Aussie dollar a boost, but it may not be enough to get risk currencies moving as the USD remains very strong against most of the majors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up more than 10% from its lows, but still at the $36K level and ready to rollover while c gold holds on to its recent uncorrelated strength above the $1840USD per ounce level, setting up for a potential breakout during tonight’s Fed meet:

Mainland Chinese shares fell back with the Shanghai Composite down over 1.6% to 3466 points going into the close, while the Hang Seng Index did the same, currently down to 24274 points. Japanese markets all lost major ground with the Nikkei 225 closing 2% lower at 27051 points while the USDJPY pair was unable to translate its minor comeback overnight into anything substantial, still below the 114 handle and looking depressed:

Not a good day for Australian stocks which caught up to the rest of the risk complex with the ASX200 closing 2.5% lower to crack below the 7000 point level and taking it back to the pre-COVID highs, as the Australian dollar is still remaining below the 72 handle despite the unexpectedly high inflation print, as the USD proves too strong:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are slowly turning over going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a classic dead cat bounce after last night’s very steep crawl back up the stairs that lifted the market out of its dire position. The September 2021 lows at the 4250 level are the only support to look for here as four hourly trailing ATR resistance keeps this market in place:

The economic calendar includes the German IFO survey, US consumer confidence and then the start of the Fed meeting for January.
- Macro Afternoon - May 24, 2022
- Macro Morning - May 24, 2022
- Macro Afternoon - May 23, 2022
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/prime-minister-scott-morrison-in-tense-photo-with-grace-tame/news-story/7519ac396bbf72e96aad30542b701d98
so a guy was assistant to boris johnson when london mayor become a senator Ok?
and Scomo says to Grace “Well, gee, I bet it felt good to get that out” is ok?
weird world we are in!
Can you blame her for giving ScoMo a death stare?
Not at all, he’s lucky he only got that!
Jenny getting a smile after the scomo snub was a nice touch.
And did anyone criticise Haynes when he gave Frydenberg the cold shoulder while trying to get a smiley photo shoot?
I think he was worried about the assault trial at the time.
I think she was quite restrained.
If I had to shake Scotty boys hand I think I’d have to tell how much of a fken cnt I thought he was.
I wouldn’t be able to help myself.
ScumMo rolled up to our SES unit after the floods on mid-north coast last year. It was a scramble to find places to hide so we could avoid shaking hands with the kvnt.
Grace captured the mood perfectly.
https://twitter.com/pablovinales/status/1485775871902646274
+1
I see on Sky News they’re demanding she give up Oz of the Year status.
I don’t know if they understand Australia Day or year, or how they work together.
Betoota suggests she may not be so quiet in a few hours.
She comes across as an ignorant rude and discourteous piece of sh1t and totally negates whatever her cause is because of her disgusting attitude towards our PM. Same goes for most of youse commies on here.
Meh, she’s no longer Oz of the Year.
You’d do her if she stumbled into one of your parties.
I never said I wouldn’t do her. She’s hot. But that’s a bit inappropriate don’t you think?
Knock it off son, the young lass is in the right…
She’s rude and disrespectful to our high office! If you think she is in the right you are part of the problem. Do better!
Pfft to the disgrace of a PM.
Get fked cnt
Ok I did
If you think Grace is rude and lacking respect to the office of PM, what do make of SCrotty’s attitude to the same office , you facist pig ?
Well wouldn’t it feel good to get it out? WTF is wrong with people? It was a caring statement. I’m really starting to think commies have infiltrated public opinion via crap like Twitter. I’m glad Scomo is getting that cesspool under control.
Thanks Chris. I enjoy your writing and insights
Agreed 👍
He’s quite enjoyable!
Wouldn’t look that great in your guest shirt tbh.
The writing and analysis mate! You cheeky!
I don’t bat for the the other team…but people are free to do what they want!
*accidents.
what happens at the Macrobusiness macro-afternoon afterparty….
Much better take on “The Trouble with Bitcoin”
If someone pitches you on a “great” Web3 project, ask them if it requires buying or selling crypto to do what they say it does.
Better pop this in –
00:00:00 Preface
00:01:12 0. In 2008 The Economy Collapsed
00:07:09 1. Bitcoin
00:18:18 2. Ethereum
00:24:34 3. The Machine
00:39:07 4. NFTs Exist To Get You To Buy Crypto
00:57:54 5. The Unbearable Cringe Of Crypto
01:11:46 6. A Self-Organizing High Control Group
01:16:57 7. Crypto Reality
01:25:36 8. There Is No Privacy On The Chain
01:32:52 9. If This “Looks Like Scam” Then Every NFT Room I’m In Looks Like Scam LOL
01:38:29 10. Play To Earn Exists To Get You To Buy Crypto
01:46:39 11. We’re All Gonna Make It And By “We” I Mean “Us” Not You
01:56:08 12. DAOs Exist To Get You To Buy Crypto
02:13:21 13. I Know It’s Rigged, But It’s The Only Game In Town
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g&t=429s
Covers ideological origins and everything after …
Who are you? Who? Who?
https://youtu.be/PNbBDrceCy8
I’m buying the BTC dip. Wheeeee
He’s going the distance, who’s got big balls I’ve got got the biggest ball’s of them all yeahar iam bitcoin C0wb0y lolol
Looking forward to the inflation and eventual wage rises that come from it…
My concern is there isn’t enough new debt nor stimulus to pay for the inflation and maintain demand, which would be fairly catastrophic for our little economy down here, built on top of a hodgepodge of SMEs providing services and/or retailing non-essential imported items, that everyone pays for using debt.
To make matters worse, as soon as some of those mortgages come under the spotlight when interest rates start moving upwards a-la 2007, it’ll be 2008 again, quicker than you can say “subprime is best prime”.
Your concern is spot on, it’s quite concerning situation
I reckon there’s a lack of analysis in this area, or at least, a lack of public analysis.
One statistic that is interesting is how many mortgages will never be paid off. You might be able to infer (guess) this from aggregate statistics and known distributions of income and mortgages.
Another is how many people are holding multiple mortgages – whether this holds down the average mortgage figure.
Only loosers / poor people pay off a mortgage.
Good point
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/we-need-to-think-harder-about-inflation
I’ve just discovered substack. very good content so far.
https://www.russell-clark.com/
I’m confused.
Is the the transitory look-through inflation I was gospelled about or a different one?
I wonder about imports, in relation to the stingy Germans and Chinese exporters that eventually bankrupt their own customers…
A friend asked:- What else could the world’s economies base their economies on, rather than rely on the imperative of the renewable & growing resource of Humans? (Ponzi) I had no answer…..?
Primary industry maybe?
Scrapping GDP as a KPI would be a good start.
Outsider economists have been putting forward ideas for yonks. There’s donut economics, those that champion the commons, the ones that look towards human wellbeing. You could still have capitalism in some sense, you just don’t put growth at the forefront.
I guess it is like when a religion has a hold of society, anything other than what everyone is used to and what is spoken about as the only way is just thought of as an unrealistic flight of fancy. A dearth of imagination and embedded power structures are what is preventing any real change from occurring.
I don’t pretend to have answers, but I saw a headline recently somewhere about “where is growth coming to come from when population growth is moving negatively sideways?”. I thought why the bloody hell do you need growth when there’s less ppl?
Traditional custodians didn’t bother with this crap.
I worked with a bloke whose sister relaxed into that level of consciousness – “wh!te boys are too uptight” – and she ended up in the Pilbara. Partnered with a traditional custodian, family visits to Melbourne had them at a Chinese restaurant where XY would, as an indulgent treat, suck the eyeballs from the whole fish served in the banquet. Relaxed and comfortable and smacking his lips in satisfaction, he hugged-slapped my colleague “ahh, Tom, thank God for the Chinese”.
Entertaining but bizarre yarn.
Actually that’s what I’m here for.
No need to be racialist! It’s not just the Chinese. I was travelling through Crete a few years ago enjoying the party bars and hooked up with the locals for a few weeks. They used to fight over the fish heads and the eyes. Spitting out the little seed thing was interesting. Bluddy Cretans.
Reus, spitting it out is so uncouth!
Bizarre? You’ve never savoured fish eyeballs?!!
I should have guessed!
I was put off after a squid gave me the stink-eye.
Thanks Footsore, you triggered a memory of an article I read many years ago, maybe before mainstream drowned it out.
It was a detailed history of how the US used to measure Societies Welbeing before GDP gained favour in the early 1900’s IRC.
They measured incarceration rates, crime types, health stats, schooling stats. I can’t remember what else….. Something I wish I’d kept, now I understand more of our current regime.
Col, I couldn’t agree more, well done.
Three acres and a cow ?……..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributism
Opens the door wide for bartering, and who will have more power! the story of civilisations on small scale
More like an updated agrigarian model?
And a bit more TTP, I have always said to the wife, when she does the 3 monthly shop to keep an eye out for the elderley women ( these women that are in their 70’s and 80’s ), at the cash register, especially if they go digging in the purse….She will nod to the checkout person with the card, and do the swipe and pay.After the thank you’s she has a natter, and then gets the details , so she can follow up with a drop off of some lamb and preserves the following 3 month interval.
Nice idea. Doesn’t do anything for GDP but makes the world a better place.
Inter planetary mining?
(Half serious.)
Interesting comment, please do explain, quite interested.
Geothermal drilling/ energy should be something that Australia has an immediate advantage in.
Our mining capabilities are world class and there is a high energy source, literally below our feet.
Very familiar with the problem in a “skin in the game” way. Solar and wind are cheaper, and will remain so.
Start at the other end, and work backwards to the economy you need.
https://ophi.org.uk/policy/gross-national-happiness-index/
Thanks Yokel. Mentally, physically, emotionally healthy, happy people are going to be more productive – Particularly if they find Their fulfilling niche rather than being stamp pressed into part of a soul destroying chain gang. Bottom up instead of top down BS.
Not that I have any data, but I suspect mortgaged households are more resilient to rising interest rate than we expect. If banks are stress testing their clients correctly then there shouldn’t be any catastrophic fall out even if rates increase by 2%. A 3% rise and we will be in very interesting territory.
“If banks are stress testing their clients correctly” LOLOLOL
He’s quite funny isn’t he 🤣😅😂😂
I like dark comedy.
The issue (well one issue) is the amount of consumption sucked out of the economy. 1% on a hundred thousand mortgage ( ah nostalgia) is very different from 1% on an eight hundred thousand mortgage. That causes flow-on effects. The household can manage (just) but the economy can’t.
I want to find how to go long on tins of baked beans.
KHC
The secret is not to let out the first couple, with the build-up you’ll be playing long notes effortlessly after the first couple of cans.
Just buy Aldi stock.
I dont think its publicly traded
“Not that I have any data”
a “great” way to start any proposition. Unless you’re a philosopher, in which case, carry on old chap
We’ve meant to have been using data to support our wild proclamations all this time? I’ve always gone with the fizzy fizzy feel good theory. I drink this and that until I fizzy fizzy feel good and then kind of just go for it. Fun for the whole family.
Ahh, a Conservative. I wouldn’t have picked it.
Why yes, I conserve my genius untill I’m fizzy fizzy feel good.
Probably not Joe. Banks diligence aside, $1 paid as interest is no longer being spent by the consumer. That extra dollar paid as interest does not equal $1 that goes straight into the real economy. A fraction may return in return on savings or bank profits. Bottom line- it is not good for GDP.
Once upon a time ministers would resign over this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/25/aged-care-minister-richard-colbeck-went-to-ashes-test-on-same-day-he-declined-to-appear-at-covid-committee
We’re going to need a lot of lampposts.
Tumbrels! That’s how we can transport reus to the arena shows.
Hauled by massive stallions!
Or maybe horses.
You know what they say about massive stallions.
“Once upon a time ministers would resign over this.”
Scummo’s gubmint doesn’t do accountability.
Or anything of value*, unfortunately.
(* unless you are an LNP donor)
Oh FFS your commieness is getting as bad as Sweeper, Smithy and Ermo!
And that time wasn’t even very long ago.
I can’t find the words to describe my feelings about this, but I will try.
F#<K!N& De^D $H!T
So China’s lay press is now claiming that any action in Ukraine would most likely not be Russia’s fault.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1246802.shtml
Interesting world
China invades Taiwan
Russia invades Ukraine
They each have a veto vote at the UN Security Council.
I can’t remember who said it’s OK for Germany to invade Poland in wwll
And look at the results of that, prolonged war and 40 million dead.
The free world must have a line in the concrete!
But did they die from WWII, or did they just happen to die during WWII?
I believe the terminology is “died with WWII”.
I dont know depends if you are pro vaccine or anti vaccine
I thought this link was good (open in incognito)
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1485575636676747267
really good link, thanks Mr JohnR
and welcome back, good to see you firing on all cylinders after a brief disappearance
This one also interesting
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/putin-is-lying-western-sanctions-have-been-hurting-russias-economy-11643049278?mod=home-page
Neville Chamberlain. In his defence, he was so emotionally scarred from the horrors of WW1 that he would do anything, and excuse anything to avoid a repeat.
Unlike the modern day politician psychopath that was Churchill, who fresh from masterminding Gallipoli, was all too ready to jump back in the saddle
never knew that was behind chamberlain decision, Thank you, i learnt something
Thanks. Never knew that context either. Can see why you would hope for the best.
Me neither. Being remembered by a sound bite can be pretty hard on a bloke.
Churchill was scapegoated for Gallipoli. Strategically he was right as Russia was surrounded. The land invasion wasn’t his original idea and wasn’t well planned or timed. Not his fault. But he took responsibility for it and understood the damage caused by war. Decisions were not made lightly during WW2.
Calling him a modern day politician is ridiculous. A Churchill of today wouldn’t go near politics. Conviction politician.
Churchill was a dangerous fool. Gallipoli, Greece, Crete, Dieppe, et al were his abörtions. The dumb, drunken fop got hundreds of thousands killed.
He was sidelined halfway through the war for good reason.
Yes, that’s kinda the trouble with the world, sane reasonable people try to avoid war but it’s hard if the letter guy is a psycho. Is Putin? Maybe, but hopefully he’s smart enough to realise he bray end up worse off, this was interesting and has me questioning my original assumption that Putin decided to invade months ago.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/putin-is-lying-western-sanctions-have-been-hurting-russias-economy-11643049278?mod=home-page
As Gunna said, Putin wants to be one of the great leaders in Russian history.
Yes, agree, same as Xi, things are going to change a lot in the coming years.
Mr Burns, what do you base the “…he was so emotionally scarred from the horrors of WW1….” on? Now I’m only quoting wiki, but it doesn’t lookalike he got anywhere near the war though he was Minister for Conscription, so maybe….
It does say later day historians state after the 30 yr release of papers, that the UK was not prepared for war in ’38, thus his decision.
Are you thinking of “Peace for our time” Neville chamberlain?
true, just as Mr Burns explained upstairs
Olympics would be an interesting time to invade Taiwan.
All your athletes are belong to us.
It would sure complicate the situation for countries working out how to respond. Would probably encourage many countries to sit tight and do. O thing. Which would play into CCP hands.
I don’t see the US allowing that to have an impact on their decision. I’d say it’d be a dumb decision for the CCP to do so as well as i think that’d backfire on them in a big way.
That would be perfect for them. Very smart. But are they smart enough? They need to decide that there’s more important things than sportsball. That’s probably them.
The veto that all the leading countries have has done immense harm to the world, China, America & Russia the worst culprits.
All as bad as each other.
Their leadership elites all Intoxicated by the possession of to much power.
What happened to Djenka ?
Same as Peng Shuai
And irony is delicious
Gone ages ago to the other side
He’s a Collingwood supporter now? Dead to me then.
I’m guessing their investigations into Straya weren’t really deep. We’re much more corrupt than that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/25/australia-records-its-worst-ever-score-on-anti-corruption-index-after-decline-to-match-hungarys
the LNP are astute students of the teachings of Sgt Bilko
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_MPah6wRNM
New Zealand …
New data shows threats to Kiwi politicians on the rise … TVNZ
https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/01/25/new-data-shows-threats-to-kiwi-politicians-on-the-rise/
The Guardian reviews the upcoming election (spoiler alert)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUqdT7g8cGA
Are people still claiming bitcoin is an inflation hedge?
Oversold. Bounce back on the way.
It’s a hedge against your assets that ARE inflating. Now i get it 😀
Hope Poppy (Popcod) Is doing well. No posts from her for a long time. No news is good news.
I think she’s OK. Just not filled with “the joy of comments” for some reason.
Did you tell her your Michael Jackson joke?
He Hee!
This one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyESG2mr1nU
Norm had a bunch of Michael Jackson jokes. Poppy would appreciate them.
Mt favourite norm joke is the moth joke. It’s so stupid, just to lead up to that punchline
That the War and Peace version?
It’s brilliant.
He was an incredibly smart man.
Poppy says she is “Surviving the heat out west 😃
Gardening”
She is settling into her house.
Who?
Poppy often had very good insights – but they were above the navel…..
This is outright ridiculous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-25/mark-mcgowan-forced-to-attend-clive-palmer-defamation-case/100781596
Why can’t the NSW court accept video link for a stupid defamation trial?
1 That is ridiculous.
LNP must have given up on winning any Federal seats in WA.
+1 That is ridiculous.
LNP must have given up on winning any Federal seats.
You can say that again.
Waddaya rekon about this?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-12/hyrdostor-seeks-clarity-on-compressed-air-energy-at-broken-hill/100749252
Yes.
This is bad – where do you find crabs inland? (not reus-type crabs).
So where will this last crab-eating monkey head to? A place where you can find all sorts of tasty aquatic life in tanks. A place where that monkey is in mortal danger…….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10438357/Truck-crash-involving-transportation-monkeys-lab-sparked-infection-fears.html
COVID like symptoms. The next 100 COVID variant was on the truck.
Our Tony!
https://mobile.twitter.com/dannolan/status/1485880412199337993
I wish he was our PM (if we can’t keep Scomo)!
How will Scomo fcvk this up?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10438545/Wheelchair-tennis-hero-Dylan-Alcott-WINS-Australian-Year.html
“You will be like a breath of fresh air after that last one Dylan.
At least you won’t walk out on me.”
You gonna whine about that one ermo?
Ermo is a whining commie
Yep,….the term “Tennis Hero” or any other kinda sporting “Hero” just sounds ridiculous to me.
But hey. What would I know I’m just a dumb shyte plumber.
A nice post about a refugee learning about Australia through food.
https://imgur.com/gallery/GLshopf
Isn’t it great how good secular society is.
WonderWhite is fkn rubbish, tho.
Better than Helga’s! We don’t want that nazi sh1t here!! Abbotts is a good name.
That’s a really nice story.
Really makes you wonder why they lock these people up for 7 years….
“I’ve been critical about a lot of the coronavirus measures, but I am confident millions of lives have been saved by people wearing masks for 30 seconds to enter a restaurant, prior to sitting down and taking it off for an hour to eat and talk.“
It’s great to see people,… pulling together.
Yeah it’s ridiculous
I am confident you can think of a more balanced account of how lives have been saved.
Sure. But when the measures get so far ahead of any science (or indeed any common sense), and came around thru GOBSAT, they deserve to be laughed at.