Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are tanking across the region in response to the late and disconcerting selloff on Wall Street overnight which is likely to continue as major companies like Netflix continue to miss their earnings. The USD remains very strong against most of the majors, with the Australian dollar pushed back below the 72 handle while safe haven buying in Yen continues and gold holds on to its recent uncorrelated strength at the $1840USD per ounce level. Meanwhile, the bottom has fallen out of Bitcoin – whoosh:


Mainland Chinese shares are feeling the risk off moves with the Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3523 points while the Hang Seng Index is pulling back, currently off 0.7% to 24766 points, but still outperforming the rest of the region. Japanese markets flopped, taking back the previous bounce back with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.5% lower at 27350 points as the USDJPY pair continued its deflation down to last week’s lows at the lower 113 handle on the run to Yen:

Australian stocks had even worst falls as confidence evaporated with the ASX200 closiing more than 2% lower to a new monthly low at 7176 points, as the Australian dollar slid back below the 72 handle almost matching its mid week low as the USD proves too strong:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are falling sharply going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price well below the December lows at the 4550 level (lower black horizontal line) as the potential builds to turn this into a proper correction:

The economic calendar finishes the week with UK retail sales and US consumer confidence and more earnings.

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  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Another week finishing, may all of you be safe, healthy and have lots of fun

  2. This gotta be the coldest year in Sydney in the past 20 years. The only bearable day this summer season was on 2nd of January. Even then the temperature didn’t reach 30°. Contrary, during those days I even turn on the heater. FFS it’s summer.
    To all tree huggers … no need to worry – the heater is powered by electricity and that’s clean energy, right?

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      A day above 25 is hot day, unless you work in an office with air-conditioning…
      It’s hot year hear in melbs, next 6 days are all above 32 and minimum of 18over night the coolest…it’s global warming!

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Not sure I understand what you are saying …..but ……..when hot days are cold…and cold days are hot ….something is not right …….

      A bit like people marvelling at picking up flopping fish on a beach before the tsunami rolls over them …..yeh but no but …..

      • typo
        it should have been: “Contrary, during THESE SUMMER days I even turn on the heater”
        PS: In my life I cannot remember me saying: “I wish it was cooler”. but this year I suffer enormously because of low temperatures. Not good for my skin condition.

    • Article doesn’t talk about the cause of death. I wonder if it is coronary. COVID roots your heart. Sportspeople who go back to hard training following COVID have an elevated risk of heart attack.

  3. Purely hypothetically. Once the 4th shot is required to be considered for a fully vaccinated person. How can those who are still on the sidelines today reach the fully vaccinated status if they missed the first 3 jabs.
    Asking for a friend.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So, as expected, covid modelling for Omicron was totally farkt up by chicken sh1ts and it hasn’t even been as bad as the best case scenario. The whole thing is a farce to scare everyone.

        • whataboutery…. the last refuge of…

          You realise in the first 21 days of this calender year there have been 4 times as many covid deaths as all the flu deaths in 2018.

          So the anti vaxxers are right. It really is “just the flu”… on a diem basis

          • ME wars [MIC], Burlaug corporate food [cormorbitities], for profit health access [$$$$tm], profit driven corporatist public health [Pharma lmmao] agenda and you have the cheek to call others anti vaxxers because they point out the flaws in the corporate methodology and political capital expended on driving this agenda outside empiric medical evidence w/ a side of ideological path dependency.

            Take a bow neoliberal sweeper …

            Completely agree with sterilizing vaccines for the ravages of the past as noted by the scientific results of rigorous third phase trials conducted with an IRB and proper controls and not corporate influence in directing public health agendas as noted by the west in switching tracts shortly after things went boom ..

          • hard to imagine how the effective requisition of a whole industry by the state, set aside & resourcing the clinical apparatus of the state toward a single goal, is “neoliberal”. But I am sure you think otherwise.
            Maybe you have bought into the neoliberal myths which you constantly attack? That the state is captive to private enterprise?
            Eg. an 007 “private banks rule the roost” applied to medicine because .. .. type thing?
            they don’t
            I am curious as to why you got caught up in the anti vax reactionary movement?

          • Oh yes Sweeper your medical approach is a reflection of your economic mind set. Ignore all the science and knowledge whilst clinging to a failed model because to abandon it would mean omitting its believers were not only wrong … but … they stuck with it regardless.

            BTW I’m not anti vax … just anti the propaganda about taking a rushed/untested experimental drug as a magic cure whilst ignoring all the other necessary protocols just to prop up a failed social ideology.

            I’ve had all my childhood vaccinations, pumped full of everything [6 shots in one go] over and over in the military and many times for many reasons over the remaining years with no dramas.

            Its just this specific occasion and the reasons behind it that I take exception.

      • Bat Out of Hell was extremely well written, performed, recorded, produced and mixed.

        Great musicianship and sense of scope. Insanely catchy songs perfect for the time. Huge selling too I think.

        Edit: top ten selling of all time.

        • Have to amicably disagree…..overwrought, affected “rock opera” lacking bass and drum impact in the production.

          Yes….listened to it when it came out and thought: Catchy tunes, but not much weight. Chewing gum pop, really.

          1977. Put it side by side with The Stranglers “Rattus Norvegicus”, released earlier that year. Some things have an import unrelated to popularity.

          • Also not arguing to be a [email protected] Really enjoy talking about music.

            I am much more Led Zep/Pistols/Stones from that era, so you could easily accuse me of liking sellouts (or argue the opposite). But huge albums have to have something. And Mr Loaf has stated he came from musical theatre to write the album with Steinman. Now, I hate musical theatre as much as the next straight (shut up reus), but this album has the songs. Only one other musical does, and that is Jesus Christ Superstar. I hate every other musical.

            I need to have a think and get my response sorted. I’ll have a listen to that stranglers album. They were bold with that odd time signature.

            Currently listening to Sleaford Mods/Slaves/the Darkness/the Chats/Steel Panther. And am going through the early Van Halen catalog.

          • haha….I admit I sometimes enjoy arguing *just* to be a bastard (I blame my upbringing), but music soothes the savage breast.

            The only time I nearly came to blows was when some young prat insisted U2’s later work was better than their early stuff.

            I will check out some of your current playlist. Thanks.

            I glean from other comments you fancy a bit of bass, so thought JJ Burnel might be up your alley. Anyway, you have catholic tastes in music, which can’t be a bad thing. I was similarly blooded on Led Zep and Pistols, with a side serve of Black Sabbath.

            I have expanded my horizons since, but re-visiting the classics of yore still gets the blood pumping.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      yea amazing what he dose and backfires to be good, not because he wants good but because it backfires ,,hopefully his lords in rio will smack him
      like what he did with chynah

    • I am 100% convinced Serbia send a message that they can also play “our country our rules” game. Zverev pointed out something interesting that his brother arrived with covid and so few players who all got clear before the tournament started. He also pointed out no one is now testing them.
      But somehow Novak was putting us all at risk. This only risk he posed was risk to Pfizer share price. Imagine if he won.

  5. I can’t even mention the name of a certain country famous for ABBA and Volvo without it getting blocked.

    • Odd. ABBA used to be included on this site. I remember checking it. Many times.
      I wonder what happened to it.

          • Strange. Evidence based medicine means looking at the evidence and applying it. Not suppressing the bits of evidence you don’t like.

            Would have hoped this tertiary institution would have had the fortitude to present ABBA.

            Would be good if could talk openly about ABBA here. It may even be worth renewing a subscription. But it appears there are limited to where MB can go.

            Ironic on a day when there has been much debate about the position WA has adopted. ABBA is relevant to that debate.

          • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

            Still on Worldometer site. 1500 deaths per million population. Not as bad as USA (2500), not as good as UK (980). What narrative would removing that information damage?

          • Yep. Deaths per capita, ABBA is now the 58th worst country in the world. Despite open schools and a generally better quality of life the past 2 years than most other places. Not too bad fir a country with a reckless approach. Particularly when the data from many countries that look better is likely inaccurate.

            Here’s the thing though. Most of ABBAs deaths were in 2020 when it failed to keep the virus out of nursing homes. An error for which the Health Minister gave a public apology (quite different to Victoria where an inquiry could only yield collective amnesia and “rolling assumptions.”)

            Throughout 2021, ABBA continued to fall slowly down that list of deaths per capita. And that is when Uni Melb stopped reporting ABBA.

            ABBAs leaders made the point in 2020 that this was a marathon – not a sprint. They suggested it could take 2-3 years before it became clear which approach was better.

    • “Worse, they say that a highly infectious strain running rampant, especially among the unvaccinated, could lead to more new variants emerging – and potentially another variant of concern”

      agree with that. the un vaxxed are effectively volunteer natural laboratories for new variants.
      It is unacceptable.

      • Vaccination without sterilizing grants no immunity … better yet promotes irresponsible behavior and death or diminishment … are you a anti NPI/masker – ????

  6. That Uni Melb site still shows the data for the worlds only “quadruple-vaxed” country. It just set a new record for daily cases.
    On Jan 2, 2022, Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett announced that the country would offer a fourth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to health-care workers and people older than 60 years. A fourth dose has already been approved for Israelis in immunocompromised groups. Israel has recently seen a surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Hospitalisations are also increasing, though overall numbers remain low.
    80% of the eligible population have received two doses plus a booster jab, including 90% of individuals over the age of 60 years. Israel began vaccinating 5–11-year-olds in November, 2021. The efficiency of the early vaccination campaign, which had delivered two doses to over half the Israeli population by April, 2021, meant that Israel was well-placed to observe how immunity waned over time. When the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 hit the country, it became apparent that individuals who had been vaccinated more than 6 months previously were not adequately protected against severe disease. In July, 2021, Israel began rolling out the world’s first booster campaign against COVID-19.

      • I agree, but they need to call it the ‘8th shot’ to trick Covid into thinking it’s way behind the game and there’s no way for it to get back in.

          • Vaccines a remarkable tool. They’ve basically derisked things to the point where full lockdowns are less needed. But this iteration ain’t gonna get societies and economy’s “back to normal” by themselves. 3rd dose looks like it provides excellent protection from severe disease.. But, even if further doses provide protection, and are needed to keep things at “normal”, there’s no way we could physically produce the amount needed to keep peoples immunity “topped up”, especially when you throw new variants into the mix. (And anything beyond the 3rd dose will be a bridge too far for many anyway..) Natural immunity will chip in and blunt waves… but with new immune evading variants in the pipe, natural immunity is just as useless as vaccine immunity (barring some t and b-cell benefits maybe) – we’ve seen this with delta infection being next to useless with Omicron.

            Unless someone comes up with an effective next-gen “universal” coronavirus vaccine.. societies are gonna have to learn to “live with the virus” long-term. Which will, once we realise it, mean getting and keeping infection numbers down and wholesale rearranging in how we structure society. More virus does NOT fix teh thing.

  7. Valneva which has traditional vaccine reports to works against Omicron. Reuters also reported SputnikV to work better than Pfizer.
    But we only get AZ, Pfizer and Bill Gates.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Now I remember who the other person was who dares to post about finance on this blog 😘 😉.

      PS What the annoyingly fit one^^ said. x2.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand’s runaway housing market not unique globally (although … as usual … worst / near worst) … Miriam Bell … Stuff New Zealand

    To clarify and amplify the above …

    Australia’s housing overall is 7.0 times annual household earnings (median multiple), while New Zealand is about 9.0 times (check Median Multipples – Interest Co NZ … just updated).

    On a total housing stock to GDP basis, Australia is about 4.5 times while New Zealand is near 6.0 times.

    Recent Knight Frank Quarterly Reports clearly illustrate the gravity of New Zealand’s persistent housing inflation … check out the links below.

    Little wonder the quarterly IPSOS Issus Monitors find that the housing problem is nearly always the biggest concern of Kiwis.

    The most recent ones find that it is the most concern to 54% of Kiwis, 29% of Aussies, 15% of Canadians and about 12% of the British.

    Check out the latest Ipsos NZ Issues report here.

    On a positive note though, and on a population adjusted basis, New Zealand over recent months is issuing around 43% more residential building consents / approvals than the Aussies. Check the ABS and Stats NZ recent reports … see copy General Email 18 January 2022 below.

    To sort the unnecessary housing inflation problem, the focus must be on progressively eliminating artificial fringe zone scarcity values and properly debt financing infrastructure, allowing normal urban expansion to occur.
    … Check out … in particular … the respective housing inflation rates of New Zealand and Australia over recent years …

    Global House Price Guide Q4 2019 … Knight Frank

    Global House Price Index Qtr4 2020 … Knight Frank .

    Global House Price Index Qtr 3 … Knight Frank