Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks rebounded somewhat throughout the region today despite the continued selloff on stocks overnight, with risk currencies coming back a little against the USD in the wake of more inflationary concerns. Bitcoin remains stuck at the $42K level while gold surged overnight to put in a new monthly high and is holding on to those gains, hovering just below the $1840USD per ounce level:

Mainland Chinese shares are largely unchanged with the Shanghai Composite barely up 1 point to 3558 while the Hang Seng Index put in a big surge, lifting more than 2.5% higher to close at 24734 points. Japanese markets also bounced back from the previous steep drops with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.1% higher at 27806 points but this barely puts a dint into the falls as the USDJPY pair edged only slightly higher to the mid 114 level but remains in a short term downtrend as the 114 handle firms as support:

Australian stocks put in a very minor uplift with the ASX200 closing 0.1% higher to 7342 points, as the Australian dollar regained some strength to climb back above the 72 handle on the stronger than expected numberwang unemployment print, staving off a new weekly low that had been building:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are steady going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price still hovering at or slightly below the December lows at the 4550 level (lower black horizontal line) as the potential builds to turn this dip into a proper correction:

The economic calendar continues with Euro wide core inflation results plus the latest ECB minutes, then US initial jobless claims plus existing home sales.

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Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      2nd,
      only put there cause Phantoms original post was, First, then edited out.
      .
      .
      Sounds like Lisala is a better waterman than landman.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Someone remind Scummo of when our Tony wanted to shirtfront a highly regarded KGB agent, then had to bottle it as the realisation hit.

      • He realized that he’ll have to aim a lot lower than the shirt… pants-front him doesn’t have the same meaning, does it?

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          He was a rugby player so the squirrel grip is quite possible.

          I dunno, I just reckon a career of packing down in third or fourth grade scrums doesn’t quite prepare one for battle with someone who could kill you.

  1. So if Putin invades Ukraine
    And Europe restricts / stops flow of oil and gas from Russia – there will be substantial pressure from USA to do this
    Then will China do an oil & gas deal with Russia?

    Its a strange world.

    • There is no way that Russia will invade a string pile that is Ukraine now. In about 18 months (TM) the Ukraine oligarchs and pollies will have stolen whatever is left, and the country will not be worth paper its constitution is written on.

      Study history. Ukraine was created in 1920s by Lenin. Prior to that it’s territories were in possession of various other countries. Crimea was gifted to it by Kruschev. It’s current capital, Kiev, was known as a centre of Russian people for centuries. It is a made up entity. There is no reason for it to be annexed by Russia, economic or otherwise. This is just a continuation of the Russiagate that was in play while Trump was President. Biden needed a new angle, since he is above all corruption, it was all Hunter, and even that is not questioned.

      Propaganda that would make old Soviet regime green with envy.

      • “There is no way that Russia will invade a string pile that is Ukraine now. “
        I wish I was so sure. There is a school of thought that Russia and China might push their luck now rather than wait. It will take time for the US to gear their military up for a classic great power confrontation. They have spent much of the last 20 years fighting to a battle plan which has very different military requirements. The emergence of China has tipped the scales of power significantly. This is why the US is keen to integrate the armed forces of other friendly nations like Australia and see them spend more of defence.

  2. This is a hot topic right now. Watch this space.
    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-boosters-associated?r=bhyux&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

    Original antigenic sin may be the explanation. The vaccine primes the immune system to a too narrow target (in the case, the spike of the original strain). This does not confer strong immunity (hence we are seeing breakthrough infections). However, it can also blocks the development of immunity to subsequent variants. Put simply, if you already have immunity to one variant, your body will rely on that rather than developing immunity to a new variant. This could explain what we are seeing – that the vaccinated are more likely to be infected with delta and omicron.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772613421000068
    https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mSphere.00056-21
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28479213/

    Thus far, the vaccine is highly effective at reducing your risk of serious disease. The ICU admission data on that is indisputable.

    But there are a number of POSSIBLE outcomes of this
    1. An individual may have more frequent SARS-CoV-2 infections – albeit mild
    2. An ongoing requirement for boosters to support a suboptimal initial immunity
    3. If there is a a more pathogenic variant in future, then the vaccinated may be more prone to getting infected with this.

    I don’t think omicron will be the last word in this (already parts of Europe are looking at a variant of omicron).

    • Jumping jack flash

      I wouldn’t be too surpised that 12 months after the omicron variant vaccine is released we will have a new omicron-type variant that’s milder and easier to catch and blasts through any and all protections offered by the new vaccine, and weekly boosters of it will be required to provide and maintain enough antibody response to prevent symptoms and infection, etc.

      Pretty sure i read somewhere that the new Omicron vaccine will be 3 doses straight off the bat… “double dose” boosters to follow of course after 6 months because that’s a fairly normal immune response duration.

    • Yeah. The Vax reduces symptoms, but OAS means you’re more likely to catch it and need that efficacy. Maybe best to not catch it in the first place?

      The transitory nature of Vax efficacy seems like a big thing to me as well.

      I’m placing a lot of hope in Vit D. I was previously severely Vit D deficient and suffering numerous physical and neurological effects. Supplementation has changed my life for the better quite remarkably. I’ve seen quite a few studies that correlate low Vit D with poor covid outcomes (it ain’t necessarily causation, I know), so I’m nomming the Vit D capsules big time these days.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      The numbers of sales are pathetic, like 37 cars of one model and 400 of other etc..
      I thought the sales would be of thousands of each!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I don’t know if I’m seeing lots and lots of Teslas or the same ones over and over again.

      • Lots and lots more.

        Model X in a small regional village around Bangalow.

        Counted 10 between Bangalow on ramp and Ballina on the 29th Jan on the highway and Lismore Bangalow Rd.

        Lots about.

    • Muttafukaburrasaurus.MEMBER

      Want to know the best way to reduce the creation of plastics/ toxic chemicals, carbon pollution and environmental degradation.
      Buy a reliable ICE vehicle and keep it for 15 years at least.

    • In New South Wales, the Coalition government is particularly keen to entice motorists into electric cars, ambitiously aiming for the vehicles to comprise more than half of all sales in the state by 2031.

      Ambitiously ? It will be staggering if half of all vehicle sales by 2031 are not EVs. Heck, it’ll be surprising if that 50% figure isn’t hit years before.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        There will be no choice. It’s already baked in. The battery factories are being built. The platforms are getting finalized. Go to any car show room and it will be electric cars only.

        No manufacturer can afford to keep 2 propulsion systems in development.

      • It’s only 9 years away, and until EVs come down to say 30-40k and the current/next gen make it into the second hand car market, there’re a lot of people who can’t afford 60k+.

        Even the Hyundai’s et al in 2022 for base models are, what, 60k+?

        (coming from someone who wants their next run about / small hatch family car to be an EV)

        • Bear in mind they’re talking about new car sales, not cars on the road.

          In 2031 I reckon you’ll probably struggle to find a petrol powered vehicle for sale new, outside of fairly specialised use cases (eg: 4WDs).

          Cars on the road is a different matter. As you say, vehicles need to filter into the second hand market for that. I reckon about mid-2030s is when EVs will become the majority. Maybe late 2030s depending on who wins the next election. 😉

          Second cars / town runabouts is exactly where EVs will take major marketshare in a relatively short time, in my opinion – when they get down to ~30k.

  3. This is where anti vaxxer madness leads:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/czech-folk-singer-hana-horka-dies-after-deliberately-contracting-covid

    Rek blamed the death on a local anti-vax movement, saying its leaders had convinced his mother against vaccination and thus had “blood on their hands”.
    “I know exactly who influenced her … It makes me sad that she believed strangers more than her proper family,” Rek said.
    “It wasn’t just total disinformation but also views on natural immunity and antibodies acquired through infection,” he added.

    • What’s your view on third and fourth booster shots being mandated. I’m personally no fan of it.

        • It seems it’s being pushed based on politics more than science and that their effectiveness against strains such as Omnicron are extremely low. So I wonder why bother? Plus the chance for negative reactions such as heart muscle inflammation etc..? I think why push people when Governments have already pushed us enough. They can f*CK right off imho.

    • Just as well drug *marketing* companies don’t underwrite / test / approve drugs for human use then.
      Glad we agree on the positive role the state plays in medicine.

    • Had a hit up at Tweed a month ago (ex junior pennant ~25 years ago). For me it was the putter (which as a junior was the most reliable club along with shirt game/wedges). Shot 10 over with a 4 putt and 2 x 3s! Horror show. Back to the old school Wilson blade putter from the Cleveland Anser-copy.

      BTW, if you’re up that way, the Cooly/Tweed course is pretty solid. Bit wet on the West course due to river proximity (a wet wet summer) but the fairways are pretty mint.

    • a resort in Fiji is effectively a long distance food court.
      Would be unlikely to catch it in Taveuni.

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      I love the distinction between interstate and foreign arrivals (the overwhelming bulk presumably are West Australian citizens):

      – arriving interstate from the Covid epicentres Melbourne and Sydney then 2 weeks home quarantine for you (Aussie Omicron ok)

      – arriving from overseas then you must be a disease ridden scumbag and have to be thrown into a hotel for a week (overseas Omicron bad)

      Never change you classy racist rednecks

      • The reality is that in some parts of the world, it is very easy to get fake vaccine certificates, fake negative test results.
        We have known this for years with TB – people can produce a normal chest X-ray to get into the country, only to turn up at hospital a few days later with advanced TB.

        The downside of closed borders for 20 months or whatever was a catch up when they opened. We saw that in the rest of Australia, which now has the worlds 4th highest cases per capita – despite summer.

        WA is even more susceptible as it didn’t have many cases in 2020 or 21, which in turn led to sluggish vaccination rates.

        But the cure is rarely more of something which made you susceptible in the first place. Sooner or later WA has to go through this. If they delay too long, they will be looking into winter and will feel that’s not the right time either.

          • It’s not the returning WA residents who are the problem.

            It will be all the skilled workers and overseas students

            Anyway you asked why there is a different system. I gave you the answer. You don’t like the answer. Not my problem Frank.

            A year back, we had a lady with cholecystitis come to hospital. Had routine blood tests done, including a blood type and cross-match. Now your blood tests can change over time. But your blood type is constant. So we get a call from blood bank to say that someone messed up and labelled the wrong tube because this lady had a blood type 2 years earlier and it was a different type. Turned out the lady had just arrived in Australia, no travel insurance, not Medicare eligible – so she borrowed a relatives card. It was cheaper and faster to fly to Aust for her surgery than to have it in her home country.

            If you don’t believe fraud is widespread, then there is not much I can say.

        • The schtick is getting old in WA. I bet dollars to donuts it’s that the new opening date will be tied to a certain high percentage of 3 shots received. Hope no new variant emerges that will require shots 4, 5 and 6.

          In the meantime, local rag explains away this action by Gruppenfuhrer Mark because Omicron is more deadly, despite it being lauded as a milder version for the last couple of months.

          In my circle, people are pissed. Especially ones who “did the right thing”, they feel cheated. Mark will cop it bad, but the election is 3 years away.

          • It is milder. Our family have it this week. Big problem is that you are too well to stay at home. Bigger problem is that wife keeps pointing out all those jobs you never had time to do.

            But Perth’s hospital system is marginal at best. It gets even worse out of Perth – he has to think about all those remote communities. WA’s population has zero natural immunity, and the vax rate is sluggish. So there is a real risk of opening. And he knows parents will be p1ssed if schools close in February.

            The problem is that he has promised his people safety for 2 years. And the people are now addicted to safety. Benjamin Franklin once said something about safety and liberty.

        • ”Sooner or later WA has to go through this. If they delay too long, they will be looking into winter and will feel that’s not the right time either.”
          Yes we will need to go through this Steve but, if you’re in the business of making money like many of the big miners are, you wont give a sh!t about whatever narrative fits the business interests of those in the east.

          I’d be surprised if the state government here hasn’t got tacit approval from those players given the lean nature of their operations and their influence here. It’s all about business continuity and I’ve not really heard any criticism from them so far. You only have to see the chaos in supply chains in the east to understand they will want to avoid that (Where are those RATs again?). If McGowan has acted without the tacit endorsement of mining interests, I’d be very surprised indeed because it would be his doom. They would punish without mercy anything they deemed to be against their interests. Such is life in the wild west.

  4. JumpingmanjimMEMBER

    Berlin (CNN)Pope Benedict XVI knew about priests who abused children but failed to act when he was archbishop of Munich from 1977 to 1981, an inquest found Thursday, rejecting Benedict’s long-standing denials.

    “He was informed about the facts,” lawyer Martin Pusch said, as the Westpfahl Spilker Wastl law firm announced the findings of an investigation into historic sexual abuse at the Munich Archdiocese over several decades. The report was commissioned by the church itself.
    “We believe that he can be accused of misconduct in four cases,” Pusch said. “Two of these cases concern abuses committed during his tenure and sanctioned by the state. In both cases, the perpetrators remained active in pastoral care.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/europe/pope-benedict-xvi-munich-abuse-report-catholic-church-intl/index.html