Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks were sold off swiftly throughout Asia today in response to the slump on Wall Street overnight as the USD pulled back slightly from its surge against risk currencies. The real threat here remains the bond market with US Treasury yields climbing sharply on the expectation of a slew of interest rates from the Fed this year. Yen has appreciated on the safe haven trade with the Australian dollar finding a modicum of relief after its selloff, while gold is barely holding on here, hovering just below the $1820USD per ounce level, as buying support slowly evaporates:

Mainland Chinese shares took a small tumble with the Shanghai Composite down only 0.4% to 3556 points while the Hang Seng Index did the same, losing another 0.4% to close at 24014 points. Japanese markets however went for a dip on a bath of blood with the Nikkei 225 closing 2.8% lower at 27467 points as the USDJPY pair slumped back down to the 114 handle after failing to move high post yesterday’s BOJ meeting, as Yen safe haven buying appreciated:

Australian stocks also fell as expected, with the ASX200 down 1% to close well below the 7400 point level at 7332 points, as the Australian dollar regained some of its exposure in the wake of a surging USD, holding just below the 72 handle but yet to make a new weekly low:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are falling fast going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price returning to the December lows at the 4550 level (lower black horizontal line) as the potential builds to turn this dip into a proper correction:

The economic calendar continues with an inflation focus, first UK and then German prints for December, followed by US housing starts and the continuation of the earnings season.

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Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Regionals following a pattern of withdrawing RE for sale then relisting at higher price.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      When will be the run to the toilets is the big question!!!

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      Unless it’s 18 months โ„ข๏ธ

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Heaps of new faces in the lounges at the moment. A hell of a lot of coughing going on though. Maybe smokers from the wrong part of China. Need more love birds from Chongqing or Chengdu where they look after themselves.

  3. Interview of Michael Roff from the Australian Private Hospitals Association about yesterdayโ€™s announcement by the federal gov that the private hospital system will be used to assist with the increased caseload from Omicron.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/private-hospital-staff-seconded-hospital-system/13720260

    Mr. Roff is very diplomatic in his pointing out that this has been in place for quite a while and that is already been taken advantage of.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Well the private hospitals has the choice of either helping out, or sitting on the sidelines doing nothing as everyone gets admitted to the public and the elective operating stops. Since money talks, they went with the former.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      This is to get real help from private hospitals or to benefit the mates who own them by paying triple the real cost compared to public hospitals?

    • This has been going on for a long time. Have had a few of my patients get transferred from public to private despite not having private health insurance.

      • Private was never set up for such events as its all MBA elective assembly line structured for balance sheet flow mostly off insurance claims e.g. not a general public health business or industry – see Kennith Arrow. Per se OB-GYN push for invasive over natural. Then again the private market never was interested in meeting new demand because it gave them pricing power via bottle neck economics to buff balance sheets over public good.

      • So basically as the population grew the market never was interested in expending capital to facilitate the growth to deliver a social good when it would be more advantages in lowing the ability service to the public to make money regardless of how it effects society at large or other sectors of the market.

  4. A chuckle my old hometown currently has – A couple of years ago I mentioned bands of brigands stripping country shelves & being driven out of two close logging townsโ€ฆ Well they came back a few months ago & bought the supermarket they were shunned from for an astounding price that the owner just couldnโ€™t refuse. So now, the locals who banded together to help drive them out of town are buying food from the new Kwikmart ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

      • they wouldn’t have thought about that stuff at that time, they were protecting “their” food supply when the owner sent up a flare. I don’t know whether they’re seen drinking at the local like the Koreans who took their jobs some years ago – they all get on very well. Booze speaks all languages, although true locals were a tad upset when one FIFO drank a bit too much & drove into the pubs awning columns shutting it down for a while……

    • Aaaaaand a 70-30 mix of petrol and dishwahing detergent in a wine bottle with a burning rag thrown through the windows of the shop will soon put a stop to that. “No officer….we was all sitting here drinking when the supermarket caught fire”. Etc.

      Coming soon to a town near you.

  5. Re-posting for the confused …

    Anyone read the book yet and still opine from ignorance โ€ฆ. Mandell, Douglas, and Bennettโ€™s Principles and Practice of Infectious Diseases โ€“ first two chapters should do the trick.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9781455748013/mandell-douglas-and-bennetts-principles-and-practice-of-infectious-diseases

    Then again what would Rothbard, Von Mises, Munger, or Ayn Rand opine about it … based on their notion of logic and reason …

  6. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    They’ll change the vaccine mandate in Victoria
    And 3 is the official number of fully vaccinated…
    How long before 4…5…..what ever comes after that

    • After half a million doses the Israeli’s have started to conclude that 4 is a busted flush. Sorta like 1, 2 and 3.

      • Jumping jack flash

        The science was clear a week ago or possibly longer – booster gives 4 weeks of “protection” above 50%. At 10 weeks it has dropped from 50% to 40%. After 10 weeks you needn’t have bothered.

        they need to make the booster monthly for peak protection until they release the omicron injection. There probably isn’t enough supply for this just yet, but there will be, and it also depends on how quickly people will accept being injected with stuff hot off the chemist’s workbench.

        There is no mystery that the boosters basically kick your immune system in the proverbial to get it ready to intercept a real infection. This state of readiness is not a permanent one, and there’s probably a good reason for that, but nobody actually knows what this means nor do they care.

        And probably nobody knows what the effect on the length of protection is as more and more of the same boosters are applied. For instance, when your immune system has seen 5 doses and is well used to seeing them, does this mean that the immune response is bigger, but shorter as it can easily defeat the “infection” caused by the vaccine? Again, nobody actually knows, and if they do they wouldn’t say unless it was “no”. We don’t want to stoke vaccine hesitancy, there is an entire world to vaccinate with these new vaccines that are “safe and effective”. Please, ask no questions, there can be no hesitation.

  7. The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

    I’d post about AUS10YRGBs but no fcken A2. So fcken. ๐Ÿ˜–

  8. Bumrah is giving de Kock a good working over. But De Kock had the last laugh when he punched him through the covers.

  9. To the resident anti vaxxers, When was the last time a flu season caused a state wide code brown?

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      On a serious note though, where’s flattening the curve? Where’s all the preparations supposed to happen in the last 2 years?
      Where’s Daniel Andrews in the last 6 weeks? Or its just Scotty is baddie when went on holidays during bushfire but Daniel is OK.
      By the way the minister of health on leave…and code Brown allows to recall staff from their leave!!! But he can stay on holiday :/

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          I googled what you wrote and google sent me a threat: “don’t put gibberish in the search box , nearly killed our systems “

      • Yeah. What happened to the hammer and the fcking dance? And short, sharp lockdowns? And vaccines that protect against disease infection and transmission like you would expect from…I dunno….a vaccine. Etc etc….

        • no protection only reduced symptoms for the original wild variant which had waning efficiency against new variants

          • Jumping jack flash

            Currently booster offers 4 weeks of protection above 50%. Drops after that. Confirmed by pfizer.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      So I know nobody seems to give a fk about accountability anymore but I would like to know who is responsible for the inclusion of a โ€œCode brownโ€ to the recognised colour based hospital emergency code system.

      I mean
      โ€œThe hospital emergency codes are based upon Australian Standard (AS) 4083 – 2010 Planning for emergencies โ€“ Health care facilities and include:

      Fire/smoke (Code red)
      Medical emergency (Code blue)
      Bomb threat (Code purple)
      Infrastructure and other internal emergencies (Code yellow)
      Personal threat (Code black)
      External emergency (Code brown)
      Evacuation (Code orange).

      As you can see There arenโ€™t that many of them and I notice Green (my favourite colour) hasnโ€™t even been allocated an emergency of its own, but brown,โ€ฆfking Brown!,โ€ฆhas.
      There are so many other colours. Who ever included this โ€œcode Brownโ€ was clearly taking the P!ss and deserves to be disciplined.
      Code Browns clearly should be used to denote Sewer emergencies only.
      This whole colour coding debacle has turned us into an international laughing stock.

      https://twitter.com/skyvalley9/status/1416159831002648577?s=21

  10. I have a modest proposal.

    Vaccinated people are clearly a threat to the health and general well-being of me and other sensible purebloods. They are clearly also a huge threat to each other as the disease runs rampant across the nation. I don’t want to belabour the obvious, but this isn’t a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The million covid cases out there? That’s the vaccinated.

    Therefore, I propose that they should be locked down so that the uncontaminated can go about their daily business without the massive risk of being infected by all of the vulnerable vaccinated people. It breaks my heart that it’s come to this but I see no alternative. It’s for The Greater Good, and will protect the vaccinated against themselves.

        • According to you, everyone except yourself must be an idiot. Including your “partner”, since you revealed she was double-vaxxed, and obviously unable to discern the grand deception that only you and various other crackpots can identify.

          Intimating that your partner is either stupid or naive.

          Classy…champ.

          Carry on….but perhaps you should switch to the other hand.

          • Jumping jack flash

            As far as im concerned people are free to do whatever they like, just dont force me to do the same.

            My wife is vaccinated as well. My children will probably get vaccinated, it is their choice, they are old enough to make that choice i guess, although my daughter doesnt really want to get vaxxed.

            The health minister goes on TV and says if you’re unvaxxed YOU have a 14% greater chance of going to ICU (and 9% for hospital?) , and then says get vaccinated for the community. He offers no statistics on how many people in ICU were put there by unvaxxed people infecting them. More than likely it was from other vaccinated people since we have 90% or something vaccinated now.

          • He offers no statistics on how many people in ICU were put there by unvaxxed people infecting them.

            Because it would be… irrelevant ? The vaccine is there to minimise the effects of infection.

      • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

        Seems fair. I certainly don’t have a problem with that.

        Should we be expecting a run on right-handed coffin nails any time soon?