Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The bounce is in and risk taking is going great on Asian stock markets after a very mixed start to the trading week with all bourses reporting in the green with solid sessions. The USD continues to be under pressure following the Fed Chair’s testimony overnight but this could come under jeopardy if tonight’s core inflation print comes in higher than expected. Bitcoin is stalled at just over the $42K level but gold has held on to its breakout above the $1800USD per ounce level, remaining just shy of the previous weekly highs:

Mainland Chinese shares are lifting nicely with the Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3589 points while the Hang Seng Index is more than just bouncing back, its surging – now up over 2% to cross the 24000 point level, currently at 24307 points. Japanese markets however are also surging after worrying signs of Yen appreciation with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.8% higher at 28742 points while the USDJPY pair is flattening out here again after failing to make its bounce stick overnight, currently hovering at the 115.30 level:

Australian stocks were the relative poor performers with the ASX200 eventually closing 0.6% higher to the 7438 point level while the Australian dollar is holding on above the 72 handle after finally finding some direction this week but it has overhead resistance coming up to overcome going into the US inflation print:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are pushing higher going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price wanting to breach the previous weekly intrasession highs at the 4700 point level:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the latest US core inflation print tonight followed by the latest EIA oil data.

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Comments

  1. To follow up on yesterday’s discussion with Zulu around Russia and gas supplies to Europe/Nord Stream 2, and the assertion that Putin is deliberately cutting off gas supply to Europe https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/01/morrisons-gas-cartel-pillages-billions/#comment-4226428

    This just in: https://agenparl.eu/department-press-briefing-january-11-2022/

    Relevant quote (emphasis mine):

    QUESTION: So you’re okay with putting sanctions on NS2AG?
    UNDER SECRETARY NULAND: What we have said is that the agreement that we did with Germany in July makes absolutely clear what will happen β€”
    QUESTION: Let me put it in a different way: Are you concerned that Germany might not go along with whatever you’re hoping you’ll get in place should it become necessary if there are sanctions imposed on Nord Stream 2 – on AG?
    UNDER SECRETARY NULAND: We are concerned now that what is being discussed on the Hill will have no impact on Nord Stream 2. What we are doing now is working with the Germans, working with the EU to slow their consideration of implementation of the pipeline. This German Government has taken significant steps to do that, and they’ve also reconfirmed the agreement we had with the previous government with regard to what happens to Nord Stream 2 – namely, it’s suspended if Russia aggresses against Ukraine.

  2. Ermo, if you’re wondering about the motivation behind those racy pages Harry posts……
    Perhaps you could read Brave New World – Huxley.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

    ABC is reporting that Tennis Australia told its players that having had COVID in the last 6-months is eligibility for exemption under “ATAGI rules”.

    Whoops.

    Sorry if I’m a bit behind on this.

  4. Here’s an illuminating compendium of lies and bullsh1t from the greatest covid experts and pundits in the western world that was emitted only a few months ago about how the vaccines would absolutely and utterly stop people from catching and spreading the plague and quickly end the pandemic. Somehow this morphed into “the vaccines will reduce the severity of your symptoms for a little while” and everybody sucked it up. It’s like “These are not the droids you are looking for” Jedi handwave magic actually works on most people.
    https://twitter.com/cwt_news/status/1475657029150986241?s=20

    “You’re not gonna get covid if you have these vaccinations”. President J Biden.

    In the ACT with nearly 99% Vax uptake we’re experiencing 1000 “breakthrough” cases every day. One of my triple jabbed team members emailed me today to advise that he tested positive this morning. The “vaccines”, as a pandemic preventive measure, have failed utterly at great expense to the community and profit to the drug companies.

    The entire population of the world has been lied to and fcked over and scammed into taking therapeutics (not vaccines as we all understand the term) that are of moderate short term efficacy at best and that have substantial short and unknown long term side effects.

    There needs to be a reckoning.

    • Steady

      Here is the original FDA design brief (guidelines for industry) for vaccines

      https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download

      Look at efficacy considerations page 13
      And
      Statistical considerations page 14.

      So the requirement was a 50% reduction in disease severity. That was an ambitious goal given previous failures to produce a coronavirus vaccine. But that was the goal.

      Politicians then got involved (in a US election year) and the vaccines were over-promised. Gee. Politicians stretch the truth or overstate things. Who would have thought.

      But the vaccines clearly exceeded the initial FFA requirements – if not the political hype.

      Imagine a politician promising that no Australian child would live in poverty. And then blaming social workers and economists when that failed.

      • Yeah..the dude who gets his opinion from a twitter feed also overlooks the overly-optimistic comments were during Alpha dominance. No Delta.* At least one study confirmed reduced transmission from vaccinated for Alpha due to decreased viral load. Delta was a whole other story.

        Also the comments from the CDC head were almost immediately questioned by the broader scientific community. That is why we have a “scientific community”.

        You would think someone who is so fired up about vaccines would make it their business to be well-informed about the efficacy of same. When I had my first Pfizer in May 2021, I was under no illusion that I could still be infected, and could infect others if that happened.

        Inform yourself; preferably not via Twitter.

        *Edit: in USA, as per topic

        • The timestamps on the video clips (which I assume are correct) indicate Fauci for example was making his claims in June 2021.

          Your username is very apt.

          • Ever wonder why Disney made the Fauci β€œdocumentary”
            All the other studios said they couldn’t make him look good
            Disney said β€œSure, we do make believe and once-upon-a-time”

          • Yes thanks Steve, for pointing out the bleeding obvious.

            Fauci is not a one man band representing all of scientific opinion (he’s not the CDC head actually – he’s the Chief Medical Advisor to POTUS – no possible compromise there either. He is more like a salesman.

            My choice of username ,Yokel, was intended to be slightly ironic, as I’m not from the country really. In similar vein, yours, LSWCHP, should be “Genius”

          • Fauci is the Chief Medical Advisor to Biden now is he? As well as the embodiment of The Science? Busy guy! What does the Surgeon General do these days?

        • Well the CDC head better say what POTUS tells him to say.
          Particularly if he wants to remain CDC head
          And especially if he requires protection from troublesome testimony about what really happened in Wuhan.

          You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.

    • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

      Yes, well, anyone who believed that at the time hadn’t been paying attention.

      However:
      -$1000 dollar fines for not submitting a positive RAT test?
      – Boosters every *three* months?

      Yeah, OK, we are there now. You’se, thanks to some dumb policy making, were right. For now. It’s policy. So it can change as rapidly as it went wrong.

      Note: self-interest rules here. Not putting myself through 4-days of fair misery every three months.

      • If you have a positive RAT and don’t report it, I’m sure you’ll be the first one at the station to report yourself for not reporting it.
        Boosters every three months? Yeah, nah.

        • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

          I know this will be difficult for you to understand, because it hardly ever happens, but this is what looks like when someone AGREES with you. Dude.

          You may want to re-read what you replied to.

          • LOL and I agree, I’m not keen on boosters (especially forced) and self reporting results should be optional, not forced and fined. It’s just stupidity all around at the moment.

          • I know you were agreeing with me. I should have put a /sarc or a smiley after that comment. My point being the idiocy of a law that’s completely unenforceable and would require self incrimination. I was also concurring that 3 monthly boosters are rubbish.

          • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

            Exactly. (and it was only the first sentence that needed a smiley BTW (got the second one))

    • https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/1930674/WEEKLY-EPI-UPDATE-WEEK-ENDING-9-January-2022.pdf

      13,248 total cases since March 2020. 7833 in last 7 days! (yeah LIR was a grand idea)

      Just 15 deaths so far!! No doubt due to high vaccination rates as you pointed out.

      Hospitalisations have increased in recent weeks, consistent with increasing case numbers in the
      community. Most of these cases have been admitted to general wards. A much smaller number
      have required ICU care, and the majority of these report being unvaccinated.

      Still maintaining that vaccines are no more effective than the “steam of (sic) my p1ss” ?

      • With 13000 cases among a near 99% vaccinated community, of course I’d still say the vaccines aren’t worth the steam of (sic) my p1ss. Does that look like success to you? Are you stupid or something?

        • The design brief wasn’t to stop infection.
          Because it is likely not possible to stop a superficial mucosal infection with a humeral vaccine. You can however hope to minimise invasive infection / severe illness, and the vaccine has delivered this.

          Yes the trials were flawed, but some of this was unavoidable.
          They were done on young fit people – who probably don’t need a vaccine. But no oe wants to expose high risk people to a new product.
          Due to urgency, the study duration was very short – the safety testing for a bomber in war is necessarily shorter than for a civilian airliner.
          There was also some careful loading of the die (but within the limits accepted by the regulator) to help guarantee the desired outcome – this is a big business.

          I think your vaccine expectations may be unrealistic.

          • Maybe so.

            It seems to me that the drug companies have developed some therapeutic medications with reasonable but fairly rapdly fading efficacy requiring regular booster shots. They’re very beneficial for selected communities who are particularly vulnerable to the disease, and of less and less use as you move away from those groups until you get to young kids. In the case of children, it looks like the cost-benefit equation for the drugs is negative…they do more harm than good due to side effects. There area also some fairly severe and poorly understood side effects.

            If they’d been sold as drugs to reduce symptoms when someone catches the disease, well OK. But they were sold as vaccines that would prevent infection and stop the plague. Not only that, those in charge have gone nuts and started mandating these drugs when lots of people clearly don’t want them. Telling people they’re free not to take the drugs but they’ll lose their jobs is not informed consent. And those mandates are pointless anyway because the drugs don’t stop infection.

            Everything about how this has been handled has been a giant sh1tshow.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Anyone who reports their RAT is a stupid carnt. That’s like saying “hey, I’m a leppa”. Keep it close and get on with things.