Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having very mixed finishes to the trading week with a lot of internal and external macro pressures weighing on risk taking across the region as markets react to the very hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve. The USD remains the safe haven of choice with gold and the Australian dollar under a lot pressure alongside other risk currencies while Bitcoin continued its break below the $46K level, now losing over 10% to almost get below $40K as buyers evaporate:

Mainland Chinese shares are building slightly with the Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3598 points while the Hang Seng Index is bouncing back, up over 1% to get back above the 23000 point level, currently at 23337 points. Japanese markets are still not liking the mood with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.2% lower at 28424  points while the USDJPY pair is hovering just below the 116 handle after trying to return to its former highs:

Australian stocks bounced back from their bad selloff, with the ASX200 closing 1% highr at 7444 points while the Australian dollar remains on the mat, still below the 72 level and unable to make a new session high with the USD just too strong:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are unchanged but hesitant going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price poised here just below the 4700 point level after breaking below the 4750 point support level on the hawkish Fed minutes – will it crack if the unemployment print is too good?

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the US unemployment print (non-farm payrolls/NFP) tonight.

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    • Gruppenführer Mark has gone pretty close to full retard with restrictions, and i starting to believe his own invincibility, methinks. Picking winners and losers, holidays while the state is in the middle of a covid outbreak (rhymes, innit?) preferential treatment to the rich.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Yeah, but it’s working isn’t it?

        Sh!tshow on the East Coast, while living large on the West Coast!

        And, that cannot be denied.

        • A year ago, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. But now, 2 years into this, and with constant barrage of MSM telling us that Omicron is a “mild” version “just like flu”, people are starting to question whether the reaction is proportionate. McGowan has done well positioning himself as a “State Daddy” and not backing down to ScoMo, but then recently mandatory 3rd shot, hints at 5 February opening date potentially postponed, Perth Cup allowed to run but everything else cancelled, costing the hospitality industry lots of money, and now vax passports in effect – getting to be viewed as a heavy-handed approach.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Aren’t they saying that Omicron is milder than Delta only, but still more severe than the original and Alpha variant? ‘Cause those early ones killed a lot.

            Guess it’s all relative

          • Schools will be closed start of term all down the east coast I reckon. So if you’re keen on that idea, yeh let er rip!

          • All he has to do is let the sh!tshow on the eastern seaboard unfold.

            Sandgropers will mop their unfevered brows, and exclaim: “Thank Dog we have McGowan!”

            As for WA opening up in Feb..yeah, nah…emergent and emergency situations and all that.

          • My WA resident Brother would agree with your assessment, although he had a list of questionable deals done to add – that I can’t remember.

  1. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Will the current East Coast sh!tshow kill the Ponzi?

    How many weeks of Covid chaos will it take? 4 weeks? 8 weeks? 12 weeks? 6 months?

    Our household is preparing for another term of homeschooling. Primary School Children’s vaccines are not rolling out very smoothly. Looks like Feb before they are accessible in Melbourne.

  2. Camden HavenMEMBER

    Internet good cheap
    Supermarkets lots, amazing, cheese seafood vegies and meat much better choice quality and price.
    Cars expensive
    weather cold -1

      • Do you know who they function ….

        The so-called “debt” isn’t debt, It’s the total of deposits into T-security accounts, which are similar to safe deposit boxes.

        You put your money in, and the government never touches it. Then to pay you back, the government merely returns the dollars that are in your account. This is no burden on the government or on taxpayers.

        Being Monetarily Sovereign, the federal government has no need for your dollars. It creates all the dollars it needs, ad hoc, every time it pays a creditor.

        In fact, the government actually destroys the tax dollars you send to the Treasury. You send dollars from your checking account (aka M1 money supply dollars), and when they reach the Treasury, they cease to be part of any money supply measure. They effectively are destroyed.

        So why does the federal government levy taxes? To control the economy by taxing what it wishes to discourages and by giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourages.

        Hence your odd commodity notions are not relative in describing anything … anymore than operating from an imperial standard to metric … and wonder why stuff is fked up …

        • working class hamMEMBER

          “So why does the federal government levy taxes? To control the economy by taxing what it wishes to discourages and by giving tax breaks to what it wishes to encourages.”
          So they wish to discourage anyone earning income and encourage rent seekers?

          • When neoliberalism became dominate via Chicago School and friends – yes – or did you miss Milton’s “share holder value” meme … Greenspan Put et al …

          • He forgot to mention the other reasons to tax, controlling inflation and limiting inequality.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      What are you on bloke? How many times have to said solar boy was right and how continually wrong does he be? He said the sun would stop shining around April two years ago. He said his crash would come in the second half of last year. That bloke couldn’t be more wrong. But I loved his tea leaf reading fables and having him around was good value. I even learned to sun my pereneum properly because of him.

  3. President Biden delivered a speech on the afternoon of the winter solstice, 2021, while the highly contagious Omicron variant started to sweep the country. For the hundred million Americans who remain unvaccinated, the president’s speech warned of the imminent risk of hospitalization and death. For the vaccinated and boosted, Biden’s message was: Keep Calm and Carry On, all will likely be fine. And for Wall Street, the speech was meant to provide a crucial piece of reassurance: There would be no federal support for public health measures that restrict commerce.

    The markets approved of this last message. As a MarketWatch headline put it, “Dow, S&P 500 book best day in two weeks after Biden vows no return to March 2020-style lockdowns as Omicron rages.” But all was not well in the economy. In the following days, in places where Omicron got an early start like New York City, many businesses and entertainment venues shuttered. Nationally, thousands of flights were canceled, disrupting holiday travel. Workers, sick or exposed to the virus, stayed home.

    On December 27, 2021, in a bid to keep businesses open amid the mass infection event, the CDC abruptly changed its guidance on quarantine and isolation. Most controversially, the agency suggested that workers should stay home for only 5 days, down from 10 days previously, even as many could still be contagious to their coworkers. There would be no need to test negative or even wear a more-effective N95 mask upon returning (CDC guidance states returning workers should wear a mask, but generally recommends less-effective cloth masks). Federal officials, including Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, have repeatedly told the press that the move was, at least in part, meant to keep commerce moving unobstructed. – snip

    Waves at the free market posse and the vax vax vax only sweeper sorts …

      • You mean the guy that threw everyone under the bus that was not an elite and on top of all that took a spastic knee jerk to trade which fked businesses because there was no alternative supply chain to pick up the slack.

  4. Dr. Faris Durmo Biber MD., PhD.
    Flag of DenmarkDenmark 0-5% vaxxed during Delta wave while nowRight pointing backhand index Fire79% 2 doses Fire49 % on 3 doses
    Peak Delta 925 admitted & 137 ICU vs Omicron (so far!) 682 adm and 74 ICU
    FireOmicron up at 75% of Delta admitted
    FireOmicron up at 54% Of Delta ICU
    FireCases multiple times higher now as you can see

    I ponder how many will white wash history to negate their deeds in ethical sacrifice so their ideology is not diminished … fkmedead the same sorts that worship Locke one way or another … yet don’t know they are the mentally indentured or worse …

      • You can worship a pile of rocks yet how is that relevant to how the universe functions …

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          Jesus Christ is your Lord too whether you have accepted Him into your heart or not!!

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Bcnich is Jesus whether you like it or not. He rose ( then descended, ) from the sun.

          • He would be totally fine with having the CCP administrating his people and never mind the consequences of it in serving the creator as a test of faith … because he willed it as a test of faith … what book did you read or study …

        • Sorry I don’t boot lick the musings of PIE … furthermore your persona is quite in conflict with those teachings as he supported women as equals and not objects of property by a male as equals … never the less by post morte writings of others[tm] he was adamant about ignoring outside forces and only be concerned about obeying his fathers dicta so one would pass the ultimate test of life and be rewarded for it.

          An allegory would be the instance of a public offering of a preacher being approached by a solid man of the flock with a family in tow and regardless of his faith and its applications him and his family are going broke through no fault of their own actions. He pleads for guidance from his religious better on how to extricate him and his from this impossible situation because of the social status ramifications – not in the creators good will as it were to all the others.

          The preacher replies that is not his duty to his soul and his only mission is to prepare it for the two choices in after life … everything else is moot at that point …

  5. Oh Sweeper …

    LA finally admits vax-only strategy fails – “Public Health has modified its Health Officer Order to include additional safety measures to reduce transmission risks knowing that vaccinations alone are not sufficient to prevent spread of Omicron.”

    Crow pie as it were and totally self inflicted goal seeking payback …

  6. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Harry, a giant butterfly with a body like wasp was flapping around a newly planted lemon tree , then after circulating few times it left, in close inspection it seems it deposited on most of the tiny new growth leavs white dots (eggs).
    Any organic products to get rid of those eggs before they become caterpillars destroying the lemon tree?
    Also any idea what kind of butterfly was it.
    Cheers 🍻

    • If a business markets up prices due to lower sales volume is it inflation or cost inputs from others passed on in the monetary sense?

      Inflation during this pandemic is largely the result of the ability of producers to increase prices based their interpretations of supply, demand, and in response to cost increases passed on among intermediate suppliers. The graphic from that article shows what is happening:
      – ocean shipping costs increased (passed on to consumer)
      – local delivery costs increased (passed onto consumer)
      – sales tax and Amazon commission increased (passed onto consumer)
      – and finally, the producer of the toy increased the mark up (profit) per toy because they expected to sell less

  7. PSA: COVID-19 isn’t “just a cold,” isn’t “a respiratory virus,” and “mild” doesn’t mean what you think it does.

    If you “aren’t scared of COVID”, this thread is for you.

    Please R/T if it opens your eyes.
    This thread is long, and hard to read – not just because of the technical language, but because “it’s just a cold,” “the vaccine protects me,” and “at least our children are safe” are comforting fairy tales.

    I wish they were true.

  8. And we now have the testing fiasco: there aren’t enough and so hospitals and doctors are flying blind. IM Doc, who practices in a very affluent area, has been distraught. From recent e-mails:

    I am quite literally in the middle of a tsunami.

    This AM we had 109 cases from the night and day before – rapidly falling way behind and there is no end in sight.

    I can no longer call them COVID, however, we simply have no testing. I have 24 that have actual positive COVID testing – the other 85 we are doing sheer guess work.

    Please remember – we were griping about busy days just a few weeks ago with 20 or so COVID patients. Just imagine what it is like here now. I have one staff out on quarantine. And the other one is just frazzled and overwhelmed and emotional after days of this. The other two have been pulled to other critical areas because they have zero staff. There was a time when we would all be on quarantine because of the exposure. I do not have adequate test kits to waste on testing them though.

    The private home tests have completely dried up. Many patients have plenty that they have hoarded apparently – but not willing to share. People are being requested to stay home with mild symptoms – and so all I have is guess work on Zoom or the phone….

    I have never felt so helpless or out of control in my life.

    On top of this is all the usual stuff every day in a busy practice – abnormal mammograms, glucoses going off the wall, chest pain, infected toes – you name it.

    I feel like I am drowning.

    It should be remembered that way back pre and post GFC the argument that the market based private healthcare[????] in the U.S. was the best in the world bar none, not to mention it basically managed by private equity funds, so its a two’fer …

    • Who ever said the Us healthcare system was the best (apart from the insurers / owners of capital, perhaps )

      • All the free market libertarians and friends, even on this blog back in the day. Come on you remember the whole shtick about suicides in that commie Sweden et al vs the land of liberty U.S. and how everyone on the planet came there for the world class medical market.

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Omicron Update …

    … Check out the Wuhan, Alpha, Delta and Omicron South African Infection and Death graphs from 14.0 minutes in, within Dr Campbells presentation today … see below …

    … Will the New Zealand and Australian media publish these South African graphs ? …

    … South Africa and London have already peaked and Australia, the UK and the USA will do so by the end of the month …

    … Omicron is being stalled entering New Zealand … and therefore not currently competing with the more virulent Delta variant …

    … What are the consequences for New Zealand and China in being Omicron laggard ? …

    Omicron growth for next two weeks … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    Covid Australia: Victoria records 51,356 new cases, nine deaths; NSW records 45,098 cases … Sydney Morning Herald / Stuff New Zealand

    ‘Hero to zero’: South Island (New Zealand) tourism businesses say bookings set to fall off a cliff … Joanne Naish, Arielle Kauaeroa and Steven Walton … Stuff New Zealand

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      Further Update … Omicron Update …

      Could Omicron be even LESS deadly than seasonal flu? Scientists believe ultra-infectious strain may kill 100 TIMES fewer people than Delta (and mortality rates were ALREADY similar to influenza before the variant emerged) … Stephen Matthews and Emily Craig … UK Daily Mail

      • Researchers expect the ultra-infectious variant to kill between 97 and 99 per cent fewer people than Delta
      • UK advisers estimate the infection-fatality rate (IFR) it stood at 0.25 per cent before Omicron emerged
      • Others suggested it could be 0.1 per cent — similar to flu— compared to 1 per cent before the vaccine rollout
      • But experts queried 99 per cent estimate, insisting it does not look plausible and there too much uncertainty … read more via hyperlink above …

      Moderna CEO Scrambles To Sell More Boosters As Omicron Wave Shows Signs Of Waning … Zerohedge

      Omicron could be ‘first ray of light’ towards living with Covid … Miranda Bryant … The Guardian

      • Omni is just a variant and there is no science which supports that other variants won’t be worse or even more infectious because the evolutionary path is not linear.

        This might help you understand Hugh.

        But as I have become so good at explaining to patients the past several months, it will do absolutely nothing to decrease her risk of catching or transmitting the virus. Nor will it decrease the outpatient illness that people seem to get. I have seen ZERO difference in the outpatient illness between those vaxxed or not. It is about the same. A mild illness for many, a severe “knock you out for a few days” illness for many. Vaccine status seems to not make a difference in the outpatient illness.

        Now to complicate matters more, as I have pointed out before, variants/mutations are dependent on how many people are effected with in a given time and space e.g. more equals opportunity for variants/mutations, even multiples, and guessing what is next is like putting your finger in your mouth then sticking it into the wind and divine how the weather is going to be 6 months from now accurately. You can look all this up for yourself that does not have some human agency behind it seeking an agenda.

      • Also the focus on death is misplaced as the key metric in determining management of covid.

        Long COVID could become Finland’s largest chronic disease, warns minister

        “Long COVID”, where symptoms of COVID-19 persist for months after an initial infection, could be emerging as a chronic disease in Finland, Minister of Family Affairs and Social Services Krista Kiuru said on Friday.

        Speaking at a news conference, she referred to a Finnish expert panel’s summary of more than 4,000 international studies which showed one in two adults and around 2% of children may experience prolonged symptoms connected to COVID-19.

        “Around 20% see long-term cognitive impairment,” Roine added, warning that the incidence of neurological diseases such as Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s could increase sharply following a COVID-19 infection. – snip

        Now factor in that there are already reports of people getting covid 4x, are effects cumulative e.g. 20% LTCI increases with each repeated infection? Why are some so inclined to always say utopia is just around the corner if you just believe enough.