Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are pulling back very sharply across the region in response to Fed minutes released last night which saw tech stocks and Wall Street in general press the sell button on almost everything. The USD remains the safe haven of choice with gold and the Australian dollar under a lot pressure alongside other risk currencies while Bitcoin has broken down sharply below the  $46K level, losing almost 10% to head towards the $42K as buyers evaporate:

Mainland Chinese shares are down slightly with the Shanghai Composite actually treading water later in the session, still at 3592 points while the Hang Seng Index is down 0.3% to remain well below the 23000 point level, currently at 22825 points. Japanese markets are not liking the Taper with the Nikkei 225 closing more than 2% lower at 28559 points while the USDJPY pair retraces back below the 116 handle after trying to return to its former highs overnight:

Australian stocks had the worst selloff, not helped with local machinations over COVId, with the ASX200 closing 2.7% lower at 7358 points while the Australian dollar also broke down below its short term uptrend, now well below the 72 level as momentum reverts:

Eurostoxx and Wall Street futures are falling going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price breaking below last night’s lows as it catches up to the rout on tech stocks and the moves lower here in Asia – not a great start to the year!

The economic calendar includes German inflation and US balance of trade figures, followed by initial jobless claims as we ramp up for the US unemployment print tomorrow night.

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Comments

  1. If the Yanks blink again tonight, we’ll be well & truly Reusa’d below 200dma tomorrow.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      The yanks are busy directing Russian focus from Ukraine to Kazakhstan
      Good move by the yanks with what they did there

          • And this is mouse and squirrel like Georgia … how did that end again?

            Syria … decades in the ME … especially Afghanistan …

            Hate to brake it to you but many are done with those that bend you over in negotiation when your desperate and then brake that deal on a whim …

          • Georgia? Badly. How depressing is this?
            “Tbilisi has emerged as one of the coolest cities in Europe (Europe?), with a burgeoning club scene, world-class restaurants and a selection of natural wine bars that make it the hippest spot in the region”.

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            ^^ factoid, I think Harry knows better when it comes to factoids though, wine was invented in Georgia 8000 years ago, also Stalin originally a Georgian

          • JohnR …

            How strange is it to see post USSR Russia bring stability to a region, which markets/investors love IMO, and the U.S. only knows how to break contracts and plates. What is it that Putin said … oh yeah … the U.S. is agreement incapable.

          • @skip agree, or at least within the limits of reporting on Russian-related stuff which is bloody woeful in the West.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I wasn’t until I watched a video talking about how important Kazakhstan really is, and what trouble can be caused by infighting there.

        From what I gleaned it’s a very underrated state when it comes to stability in the area.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            If things are “engineered” to require foreign intervention is this country Gunna fall into a Russian or Chinese sphere of influence?
            The US isn’t the only player in “the great game” of empires.
            They’ve been on top for awhile but once they are gone from the region others will continue to play.
            Same as it ever was.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          It was narrated from Abu Hurairah that the Messenger of Allah said:

          “The poor believers will enter Paradise half a day – five hundred years – before the rich.’”

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            With margins of error like that on his predictions he must have been an economist.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            It was narrated from Abu Hurairah that the Messenger of Allah said:

            “The likeness of the one who sits and listen to wisdom then only speaks of the bad things that he had heard, is that of a man who comes to a shepherd and says: “O shepherd, give me one of your sheep to slaughter,” and (the shepherd) says: “Go and grab the ear of the best of them.” Then he goes and grabs the ear of the sheepdog.’”

          • Pachyderm and eye of the needle thingy is a trope from antiquity … it justifies the looting before ascension and judgement by the highest court in the universe … of “I’ …

  2. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    “Calm, composed and unflappable.” – couldn’t agree more with Bluey.

    Only 68 runs to go!!!
    Really presenting the selectors with a dilemma.
    Nail biting stuff.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Two interesting facts a ranger taught my group about Koalas this week:
      1) Once a koala has climbed to the top, it’s really hard to remove them.
      2) Koalas are only legally allowed to work three hours a day.

      67 runs to go.

    • Are you to suggest the PBOC will not facilitate the largest wealth transfer upward like the U.S. did post the GFC setting up the mother of all moral hazards and now can’t penalize the recipients or they won’t fund your election prospects thingy …

  3. NT policy is well thought out and should be the template for the rest of the country. Otherwise the hospitals will be overrun with the un-vaccinated.

      • “Victorians who have not received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine make up just 7 per cent of the population aged 12 and over, but make up roughly 90 per cent of the COVID-19 patients in ICUs”

        • Then why are countries with high vaccination rate having such high infection ratios with the vaccinated, E.g, Israel going for a 4th booster in desperation.

          • From above, acknowledged, but I think that argument misses the point and is too clever. Acknowledge that vax is not the only component in the suite of defences, but vax is clearly the easiest component to implement.

          • I think there is near universal confusion about the terminology, which could have been made much more obvious for the consumption of the general public.

            SARS-CoV-2 is the virus; COVID-19 is the disease that may result from infection with SARS-CoV-2.

            PCR tests for genetic material of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It tells you nothing about COVID-19.

            Omicron is another variant of SARS-CoV-2. So basically what these stats show is vaccines are less effective at preventing viral infection than they are at preventing the sequalae …..i.e COVID-19. However…if you believe this presentation (I am not saying you should) then vaccines are indeed somewhat effective in preventing infection (SARS-CoV-2), and even better at preventing illness (COVID-19).

            I’m not sure if it is a clinical or philosophical question in regards to when you “have” COVID-19; I’m as confused as anyone else about the constantly shifting definitions from state actors. However, I understand even if you are asymptomatic, your physiology may be sustaining damage from the viral infection. So I guess at the end of the day they might as well be regarded as co-existent.

    • Seems fair to me. People have chosen not to be vaccinated. NT health is always at breaking point. Minimizing the chance that those most likely to need a bed take one up is a sensible move. The gov has the responsibility of looking after the whole community and this is unfortunately what they’ve been cornered into doing at this point in time.

      However… having met a few anti vaxxers up here, they’ll do what they want and once it gets amongst them it’ll spread. Sometimes out of arrogance and open rebellion, and other times because they don’t really grasp the risk.

      (Even though I support mandatory vaccination for public health the painting of all anti vaxxers as simple angry idiots does not capture what they are all like and is also counter productive to building the trust that many lack to bring them across. A common thing I’ve picked up is that they’ve thrown the baby out with the bathwater, so to speak. Their mistrust of gov, or of evidence based medicine, or of pharmaceutical companies, over rides their ability to think about the the issue.)

      So I think it’ll be a way to spread out any uplift in admissions rather than avoiding it getting reaching those who are vulnerable. Especially with the infectiousness of the Omicron variant.

      However this play out the NT will struggle.

      • People (formerly taxpayers) make choices about new vaccines that have not completed clinical trials and NT Health is always at breaking point serving one of the poorest, uneducated, chronically ill and drug blighted populations in Australia so it’s OK to lock people up with no provision to leave the house for exercise or work? The human rights of murderers are paid more respect. I agree with some of your points but this knee jerk response to punish the unvaccinated is craven political misdirection.

        • Throwing multiple strawnen and false equivalences into a bonfire of poor phrasing does not an argument make.

          • Abject neglect of health funding dating back decades is not a morally valid excuse to deprive the rights to free movement and a livelihood of citizens who withstand coercion in order to exercise their legal right not to enter into a clinical trial.

          • You’re right in that it does provide a reason to consider what limits should be applied and why. Yet the idea that because the structural issues within the NT are so poor the gov should neglect the health of the broader community by allowing people who have actively chosen to put themselves and others at others at risk through choosing to not take the vaccine is not a denial of human rights. The unvaxxed, by their actions, do pose a greater threat to others.

            The second part of it being a clinical trail is just dross. The trial stage finished yonks ago. If you don’t get, or deny the science, that’s cool. Just don’t try to sneak it in as a valid reason to object to being vaccinated. It’s sovereign citizen levels of nonsense.

          • Can you explain how not getting vaccinated puts others at risk? I genuinely don’t believe anyone actually meets ATAGI’s criteria of exemption to receiving a vaccine. The vaccinated are spreading just fine, not to mention bringing Omicron into the country in the first place. I understand there are limited hospital beds but some people live riskier lives than others and some pay less taxes than others. Can we limit their rights too? No rodeos, no motorbikes, no footy.
            As for vaccines having passed clinical trials, this is incorrect. Comirnaty is unavailable in the US and there are no COVID vaccines registered on the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods.
            https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-vaccine-approval-process

      • Again footsore and I have to say as someone that has watched you over a decade I’m gob smacked that you fall for the vaccination = freedom trope as its never been supported by medical science from before covid.

        • Same as with M, either learn to compose or don’t bother. You’ve used words yet you’ve said nada.

          “vaccination = freedom trope as its never been supported by medical science from before covid” unpacks to multiple issues without saying anything about any of them. It’s gobbledygook.

          • Not my job kid to fill the gaps in when you are offered the bible, as it were, on the topic and you can for – yourself – decide fact for fiction at your leisure. No I just have to suffer your ideological dialectal machinations in a rear guard retreat because a force of nature does not respond to what rolls around in some people head to what they think life is about … good luck …

          • Why post and then expect a response to it if you are unable to write something coherent that warrants one?

          • Hand wave is not a rebuttal so don’t be cute kid. You frame your responses in authoritarian dialectal but have nothing to back it up save you – said so – read the book which is grounded in all the up to date science that is not infected with some whole cloth ideological predisposition to some concocted reality and grow up.

            You in my experience will never grow up, your priors preclude such an event as evidence by your drug use as a crutch to smooth out the cog dis. Good luck weak boy … your mind will quit first cause reality does not conform to your religion.

            BTW stop playing your mind has moved when its owned by others …

          • You are immune to science on this topic.
            The other day I posted hospitalisations in NY by vax status.
            Response? Gibberish.
            The science says this is right now best defined as a pandemic where serious illness is overwhelmingly concentrated in the unvaxxed who are placing a huge burden on society due to their selfishness and ignorance.

          • Do you understand you could vaccinate every single person on the planet and it would do nothing to stop being infected, worse when paired with ignoring all the other proactive protocols in stopping infection actually makes things worse. The virus potential for mutation is based on infecting people regardless of being vaccinated or not – proverbial Pandora’s box.

          • The potential for mutation is actually based on the duration and seriousness of disease in a host. Which is much worse in an unvaccinated person.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Maybe the UnVaxxed could be hospitalised in separate facilities, temporary camps? So as not to interfere with the vaccinated and the existing healthcare system.

    • It’s a nice distraction from Scummo’s corruption and Harvey Norman selling RATs now.

      But hey, look at that guy, hey?

      Then, look at Scummo… frking awesome man he is, hey? We should elect that kent again, because he wailed on that inconsequential tenis player jerkoff! Yaaaay!

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Not to mention Scomo blaming vic for novax arrival as if visas are state issued

      • The politics is delicious

        Vic Labor wedges national LNP – you control borders
        LNP – thank your mother for the rabbits VIC – er no you can’t come in (now we don’t look like chunts for locking out citizens but letting this clown (swampy says – and he is a clown ) in )
        Courts – er quiet please – Novak will serve

        Everyone is happy – Labor VIC looks good
        National LNP looks good – due process and the courts said yep – not our fault
        And meanwhile – look over there it’s a distraction from RATs sh1tf;ckery from the Scrotum

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        They Relentlessly over reported that tennis player story on the ABC today
        almost like they were ordered to waffle on about it all day from above.
        Fking boring as shyte story!

        • Correct, we are spool fed crap to keep us busy. My mate asks about cyclists today. Because on the radio there is all this hoo har about cyclists. Australia is outward hostile to cyclists. Compared with Europe where they look out for you and give way. People are aggressive in cars here. It’s absurd the way people get upset over cyclists in their cars.

        • Dunno what you’re talking about Ermo. I’ve been reliably informed that nobody takes any notice of what the media says, especially about politics. They make up their own minds.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Do you like them? I find them fiddly to make and sweet on the palate,
      Dark chocolate is better IMHO
      In winter I don’t mind sticky date poding with some home made icecream on top of the warm sauce 😋
      Then wash it down with spiced rum or Torkay Hungarian wine

    • Goldman sacks banker is spot on cuz he pins the GFC on poor people borrowing too much money and the wealthy investors should not be on the hook for their bad decisions … just like everyone should pump some non Trial III with a IRB experimental drug is force on the unwashed so the markets can stay open and the spice flows … good on you sweeper … I see you …

          • Its revolving door dumbass … hes a well know quantity in the profession, that even the olds warned about because of his ethical forbearance and a fear his like in the discipline would be tragic if given powerr, because he would always take the brown paper bag like … say Greenspan.

          • But fkmedead he bought in the investor money with expectations of future income for the right sorts in perpetuity aka an investor democracy.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    We’ve definitely entered the 24 month social unrest stage of the Pandemic.

    It’s anyones guess how the world will be in two years.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    So many here getting all emotional and angry about the “unvaxxed” and denigrating their choices of preferred dinning locations (food courts) and other negative “lifestyle behaviours” suggesting that “these people“ should be exclude from our already underfunded and under assault Universal health care system is misdirected ire in my view.
    Its real thin edge of the wedge stuff from you Sweep.
    Divide and conquer 101 that plays right into plutocrat hands.
    I thought you were an advocate for the Welfare state and Universal health care.
    The real story here around Covid,…The real enemy, is the intentional building in of dysfunctionality into our free/equitable health care system so as to justify the bring in of a user pay American style system with as little protest as possible from the plebs who are all pointing the finger at each other m.
    Those Pfizer Kants that you are demanding we all submit to getting jabs of Sweep are among the worst actors in this grubby endeavour of privatising everything.
    I hate that they are the supplier of my family’s vaccination.
    The behaviour by our “leaders” to undermine health care is the bigger story than who is and who isn’t vaxxed!
    https://twitter.com/ermoplumber/status/1478888217394831360?s=21

    • I have previously predicted that the generational wealth divide with result in exactly that. Young Australians who cannot afford a house of their own they will spite the wealthy “boomers” by voting for tax cuts at the expense of healthcare. They will not realise that they are being fooled into spiting themselves later on in life.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      Good call EP.
      Never let a crisis go to waste.
      I believe Morrison and Perrottet are using the Covid plague to destroy the public health system so as you say ,they can implement USA style privatised Health cover.
      May they rot in Hell.

  6. Seems like folks – mostly unvaccinated but also vaxxed – have limited understanding of what is happening in an anti fragile public hospital system – they might pause and consider

    • All the young with their ideological open borders mantra, should attend a hospital and see if they are prepared to forgo hospital care when their turn comes.

  7. In the 30 minutes between 10 and 1030pm, at least 10 big planes came in. Might have been more as I only started counting when I noticed how frequent they were.

    Teh gates are open.

    • I started calling it today. It was busy AF. Every time a plane went over I would make a point of saying to the missus “another one.”

      We had a couple of year period of practically no air traffic, being where we are, we are the end of the line, not a stop over spot, so it is very, very noticeable that the migrants…i mean…visitors are flooding in.

      That’s all I can think of when a jet flies over “another plane load of migrants…”

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      One of my customers and his wife just returned from Fiji a few days ago with Covid.
      Their HWHeater pilot light had blown out so I went over to re light.
      I spoke to him through the kitchen window once I relit it.
      He and his wife along with another couple they went with all tested positive when they returned.
      He Reckons they all caught it on the plane on the way to Fiji or at the resort.
      Returning holiday makers alone are going to have the numbers screaming upwards.
      Ya wouldn’t get me on a Planes or Cruise atm

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    … Technology enabled and covid accelerated dispersal and decentralisation …

    How the Pandemic Supercharged Sprawl … Patrick Sisson … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-01-05/a-supernova-of-suburban-sprawl-fueled-by-covid

    Fueled by a desire for space and liberated by remote work, homebuyers are pushing development ever deeper into the suburban outskirts of U.S. cities. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Demographia United States Housing Affordability: 188 Markets Rated … Wendell Cox … New Geography

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/007260-demographia-united-states-housing-affordability-188-markets-rated

    New U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates: A New World ? … Wendell Cox … New Geography

    http://www.newgeography.com/content/007294-new-us-census-bureau-population-estimates-a-new-world

    … and … David Levinson of the University of Sydney, discusses the inevitable covid accelerated and technology enabled dispersal and de – centralization … watch recently updated video …

    David Levinson … The New New Normal … The Transportist

    https://transportist.org/2020/11/03/the-new-new-normal-mobility-and-activity-in-the-after-times/