Deutsche with the note. To my mind, if get anywhere near this outcome then stocks are going to crash. Put another way, stocks are going to crash to prevent it:
Introduction
Last week we adjusted our Fed view to bring forward liftoff to March and accelerate quantitative tightening (QT) to begin during the summer (see Leaving behind “behind the curve”). This hawkish adjustment reflected the signals from the December FOMC meeting, the minutes to that meeting released last week, as well as recent labor market data that showed the unemployment rate cut through the Fed’s median estimate of NAIRU. Related to the balance sheet in particular, the minutes confirmed that, while drawdown will come after liftoff, it would be “closer to that [timing] of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee’s previous experience”.
