Australian dollar technical targets

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Macro Afternoon

Credit Suisse with the note:

Chart of the Day: The hawkish FOMC last night has reinforced our core themes, namely rising yields as a result of normalizing monetary policy, which we look to move in tandem with our long-held bias for a stronger USD. This has seen the DXY surge higher to retest key resistance at 96.91/97, and we maintain our core positive outlook for a clear break above here for our 97.73/80 core objective, which includes the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/2021 fall.

We look for a resumption of the core downtrend and a retest of key price support at .6992/91 AUDUSD has not only now seen a clear break of its short-term uptrend from December, but also key support from the prior January YTD low at .7129. This should reinforce our view the corrective phase is over and core downtrend resumed. We look for this to add momentum to the decline for a move back to retest medium-term support at .6992/91– the key lows of late 2020 and 2021. Although this support should again be respected, with an existing major top in place we look for a clear and sustained break in due course.

Support would then be seen next at .6921 ahead of .6832 and then our core and long-held objective of the 50% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at .6758.

Short-term resistance moves to .7095, then .7123, which we look to now try and cap. We will though look to maintain an immediate negative tactical bias whilst below a cluster of resistances at .7167/89, which includes the 55-day average.

We stay negative with support seen at .6994/91 and eventually .6758, with key resistance seen at .7183/89.

Houses and Holes

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