Aussie dwelling commencements dive

The ABS has released dwelling construction data for the September quarter, with dwelling commencements posting a significant fall.

According to the ABS, the number of dwelling commencements dived by a seasonally-adjusted 16.3% over the September quarter but were up 30.8% over the year. Detached house commencements fell by 16.5% over the quarter to be up 31.3% over the year, whereas unit commencements fell by 15.8% over the quarter to be up 31.1% over the year:

However, as shown in the next chart, annual house commencements are running way above the long-term average at all-time highs driven by HomeBuilder stimulus, whereas apartment commencements continue to run slightly above average levels:

At the state level, commencements fell everywhere over the September quarter:

By contrast, dwelling completions (which lag commencements) rose by a seasonally-adjusted 3.3% over the September quarter and by 6.4% over the year. Detached house commencements rose 6.2% over the quarter and by 13.9% over the year, whereas unit commencements fell by 0.9% over the quarter and by 3.5% over the year:

As shown in the next chart, annual house completions ran just above the long-term average in the September quarter, whereas apartment commencements ran well above the long-term average:

Finally, the rise in dwelling completions was driven by Victoria:

Based on the above, a huge number of homes should be completed this year as completions catch up with commencements.

Unconventional Economist

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