New home sales end 2021 strongly

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released new home sales data for November, which posted a strong 7.7% increase – the fourth consecutive month of rises:

New home sales

“The new home market has continued its upward trend, with sales increasing by 7.7 per cent in November. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase and leaves sales in the three months to November 8.0 per cent higher than the previous three months,” stated HIA Economist Angela Lillicrap.

The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.

“Demand for new detached and multi-unit construction has remained strong even with lockdowns. It appears that the more time people spend in lockdown, the higher demand is for detached housing,” added Ms Lillicrap.

“Sales in the three months to November 2021 were significantly higher than pre-COVID levels. This is a strong level of home building and suggests that the current boom will continue throughout 2022 and into 2023.

“The constraint on home building is not demand but the availability of land, labour and materials.

“The shortage of labour and materials has led to construction timeframes increasing significantly. Under normal circumstances, the surge of HomeBuilder projects would have translated into an increase in completions from the June 2021 quarter. However, completions have not yet begun to respond.

“This has resulted in the volume of work approved but not yet commenced at its highest level in over a decade,” concluded Ms Lillicrap.

Across the states, sales in New South Wales increased in the three months to November 2021 to be 27.8 per cent higher than the same time as last year. Over the same period, Queensland and Victoria declined by 8.6 per cent and 15.2 per cent respectively.

Western Australia and South Australia were 34.7 per cent and 36.9 per cent lower in the three months to November 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.

All indicators suggest that housing construction activity will remain strong in 2022, given there is still a massive pipeline of dwellings that have been approved by not yet built:

Dwelling construction versus population change

Given so much demand has been brought forward by HomeBuilder, activity should fall sharply in 2023 once the pipeline is exhausted.

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