Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A quiet end to the trading year for Asian stock markets with listless sessions across the region as liquidity and trading volume continue to dry up with Wall Street having an early today. The Australian dollar and other risk currencies are holding on to their recent while Bitcoin wants to punch higher above the $51K level as gold remains slightly above the $1800USD per ounce level – but only just:

Mainland Chinese shares are down a little with the the Shanghai Composite off by 0.4% to 3629 points while the Hang Seng Index is up slightly, lifting 0.2% to 23236 points. Japanese markets are flat lining however, with the Nikkei 225 barely up 0.1% to the 28823 point level while the USDJPY pair is staying  elevated but not making any further highs after its recent punch through the 114 handle at last weeks high:

Australian stocks had a modest session higher, with the ASX200 closing up 0.4% to 7420 points while the Australian dollar has been unable to advance on its overnight gains, still hovering just above the 72 handle as it holds on to its new weekly and monthly high:

The economic calendar is clear tonight as we head into Christmas.

Thats the last Macro Afternoon – and Morning Report – for the year, I’ll be keeping an eye on the site over the break with some unbalanced links every now and then, but see you all in the New Year.

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Comments

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Are you male or female?
      Only thing I know about you is nothing and Good links you share! Oh merry Xmas in case you celebrate the day!

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Lol I’m already dating, but won’t mind having side affairs, you know like that guy John from Sydney
        johnlovestolick

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            Here you are! was looking for you!
            Seasons greetings comrade, I enjoy your chomski posts, you are a proof that proletaria isn’t just washed uneducated…stay strong and great example to your lovely kids!

        • Thanks for the wishes TTP, much appreciated.

          I took my Dad for a walk this morning. He said “I can still stagger a mile young feller (I’m 59))” and he almost did, but at 1.4km he almost collapsed and I had to semi-carry him the last 100m home. He’s as tough as old boot leather, but he’s taken a beating lately and doesn’t want to admit it.

          We’ll be taking it easy on Christmas Day. I hope you do too.

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            He’s like my great granddad, 97 and served in ww2 still pushing hard and enjoys a swim in the ocean
            But as you said, the toll of days is just showing

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        I mentioned a couple of days ago, but bears repeating: thank you!

        Best G&T I’ve ever made. Just like my usual best, but smooooooooooth and with double the flavour. Love it.
        PS This Korean (US) Vet made *the* most awesome Martinis I have ever had in my life. Anywhere. So now I know what his technique was that I couldn’t replicate (no matter how often I tried), Works for those too (if you like ’em stirred, not shaken 😁)!

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Merry festive season to you and the family 👪
      May they serve you food, drinks and give you lots of joy

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        Nah, I already asked. She’s booked until Feb next year.

        Thank you though for those kind thoughts. Hope similar for yourself and that your career takes you to new heights in 2022.

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          Cheers! One day I’ll install a lift that goes 500 levels that’ll take me to new heights! Who knows 🤷

  1. The ghosts of Mitchmas past….

    AAP reports that Perth Scorchers captain Ashton Turner believes it’s just a matter of time before Mitch Marsh is whisked away to rejoin the Australian set-up.

    Marsh hasn’t played a Test since 2019, but his scintillating form in white-ball cricket has led to calls for him to be a part of the Ashes.

    Finding a way back into the Test squad could be tricky given Australia’s dominance in setting up a 2-0 lead and the strong bowling form of allrounder Cameron Green.

    But if Green suffers an untimely injury, the calls for Marsh to be included would be deafening.

    Marsh was a key part of Australia’s T20 World Cup triumph and he has carried that hot form into the BBL where he is averaging 103.5 at a strike rate of 154.5 from his three knocks this season.

    His latest heroics came on Wednesday night when he cracked 86 off 53 balls in a man-of-the-match performance against the Melbourne Renegades.

    “We’ve just got to appreciate and enjoy him being in our team while he’s here, because I’m sure it won’t be long until he’s representing Australia in a lot of formats,” Turner said.

    “I think the Australian cricket team would be better off for that.

    “It’s fun to watch him bat at the moment. He’s loving his cricket. It’s entertaining. He’s putting on a show for everyone.”

    Turner has been impressed with the way Marsh has improved against spin bowling.

    “Teams in the past have targeted him with wrist spin, but now he’s almost as dominant against the spin as he is against the quicks with pace on the ball,” Turner said.

    “The thing that stands out is it looks almost low risk a lot of his batting. To be scoring as quickly as he is, normally guys are taking a lot of risks.

    “But it looks like everything is coming out of the middle of the bat.

    “It feels like he’s just playing 50-over cricket almost, and you look up at the scoreboard and he’s striking it at 150, 160 with no sweat.”

    https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/12/24/ashes-scout-wattos-scathing-stokes-review-root-says-i-can-bang-out-a-hundred-vic-quick-firms-for-mcg-debut/

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      The funny thing about the wankers of the eastern suburbs and north shore is that the only joy in their lives is actually encountering bogans (most richer then them) and looking down on them

    • If flight being cancelled means they will have to do another PCR to fly, there will be great violence.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    China’s economic woes … excellent video presentation by Lei’s Real Talk …

    On a lighter note … the chief economic adviser to the Chinese Communist Party explains how he has received a $US2,000 check from the US government. Being the honourable chap he is, he is not going to cash it and contribute to the United States inflation woes …

    China experts explain problems with the Chinese economy and unemployment … Lei’s Real Talk … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmXC1xeBu-8

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Best wished to you and your next of kins! May they rise the interest rates to 5%, I feel that’s your wish!

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Hey Phantom.
        Worked for Otis once.
        Take my hat off to you , can’t say I liked that work much.

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          BOOM! the boss of the pack and the patriarch , May the force be with you, and best wishes for 2022
          yea lifts are not much fun, especially maintenance jobs, I’m still learning!

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          I bet they had to let you go due to all the holes appearing unexpectedly in the underside of their lifts?

          From every time you stood up in a well? 😁

  3. About to buy a ride on. Husky or John Deere? Sloping block about 1/4 acre to mow. Just lawn, no rocks. 38” would be heaps. Any Husky or JD owners care to comment? V twin, 17+ HP, something not too heavy, hydrostatic, mostly mowing over septic trenches . Currently takes about 35 mins with self prop Honda

    • 1/4 acre? Surely…you know…a push mower? Just my $0.02 worth. Not questioning your manliness or anything.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Quite. I do that with my EGO battery powered mower, with a change of battery needed after about 45mins. But I have a couple of fine EGO products so spare batteries is not a problem.

      • Block is 1/2 acre – mowing 1/4
        Sloping block – medium
        Super thick grass
        Sub tropics – mow every 2-3 days in summer

        My time is better spent with kids, running, cycling, baking delicate soufflés etc a you know, being more manly

        I currently push mow with a Honda self prop

        Anyway that wasn’t the question – I asked about anyone who has / had a Husky or JD ride on

        • Get a zero turn. Cuts the time mowing by 2/3. I doubt brand matters. Ours is a Rover. The missus is the mowing queen. She does close to a hectare in just under an hour.

        • I found the green ones an utter bastard to service. The orange ones were marginally better.

          I had problems with the stamped decks made out of tinfoil. They are shockingly, astoundingly bad – the anchor points will tear the base metal in the deck and pull out. Depending on your luck, you may need to re-weld them and reinforce them with some solid bolts and manufactured L-shaped profile bent to follow the anchor point shape.

          I suppose it all depends on which level you’re looking at: entry-levels are invariably various degrees of crap.

          Second hand prices have gone insane in the last 18 months, so, choose your poison.

          ZTRs are good-ish, but a pain in the wet on a slope. Get a good suspension chair, your lower back will thank you.

          Avoid complex 90degree deck-belt ones, if anything goes wrong, they will chew their price in belts.

          Toros are good, but like I said, avoid the ones with a horizontal PTO

          • Pressed decks just need cleaning. We had an MTD hydro with pressed deck before the kubota zero and it was fine

            Thanks for the advice Frosty re serving JDs

        • There’s various qualities of pressed decks. The orange ones I’ve had the dubious honor to deal with, were the shïïtïest bits of hardware I have ever seen!

          They were religiously cleaned and still failed. Cleaning had nothing to do with bad manufacturing

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Do you know why the boards going to Islamic destinations are always sent through the factory process twice?

            Bl00dy Chinese are always repressing the Muslim’s.

  4. Mining BoganMEMBER

    F#cking great.

    80yo FIL. Emphysema. Other problems. Goes to RSL but never checks in. Barman had spicy cough. Everyone isolates. Not FIL, I’ll just do a rapid test he says. She’ll be right tomorrow.

    F#cking great.

    • WTF is it with old cnts? My parents have been with me all week, and it’s been a trail of chaos and devestation. They don’t listen, and do the most absurd sh1t which always turns out badly, and then complain that the world is always against them. I can understand my Dad not being connected to reality after he fell and hit his last year, but my Mum? FFS.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, MIL the same. She not be healthy either. Now they’re looking to unload the dogs on us so they can go caravanning through NSW.

        Got angry when I told them borders will be shut soon anyway.

      • It’s called being old
        Write this down in your journal for future reference when you need to *checks notes* check your own irascible behaviour at 80

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          Most of this lot are surprised they made it this far mate (happily surprised). 80? I’ll tell ‘im he’s dreaming. 😉

  5. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    My date just arrived from her parents Xmas eve dinner, good night everyone, hope Santa will give you what you wished for , and don’t forget to leave carrots for the reindeer!

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Omicron reality …

    … essential reading …

    Omicron’s cold-like symptoms mean UK guidance ‘needs urgent update … Ricard Adams … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/omicron-covid-symptoms-uk-guidance-zoe-study

    Lead scientist on Zoe Covid study calls official advice ‘misinformation’ in light of data about new variant

    The most widespread symptoms of the Omicron variant now match those of common colds, with calls for the government to update its public health messaging to include a wider number of likely Covid symptoms.

    The most common symptoms reported among users of the Zoe Covid app have been a running nose, headaches, fatigue, sneezing and sore throats, according to the study’s most recent analysis of confirmed cases in London. …

    … concluding …

    … Openshaw said it would be “sensible” to update the list of Covid symptoms: “The semi-lockdown has been terrible for colds, they are struggling to survive. So if you have a cold at the moment, there’s about a 50% chance that it is actually Covid.”

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China: Why is the Western media failing to report the 15 – 30% pay cuts of public servants in China ? …

    … When can we expect Western governments to follow suit and deal with public sector bloat / excessive wages ? …

    China experts explain problems with the Chinese economy and unemployment … Lei’s Real Talk … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmXC1xeBu-8&t=6s

    China’s finances are so tight! The storm of back taxes is coming/Civil servants take pay cuts … China Insights … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpG-x9onxo0&t=3s

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand: Housing hell in 5.0 Median Multiple Timaru … local Stuff reporter Keller MacDuff explains (check out other centres Median Multiples … Interest Co NZ and Demographia below) …

    … In normal markets housing does not exceed 3.00 Median Multiple (gross annual household income) requiring a mortgage load of about 2.5 times annual household income …

    … With rising interest rates, are Banks and Mortgage Brokers adequately explaining the risks of excessive mortgages to their clients when the market crashes ? What lessons did they learn from the Irish ’07 experience ? Will the Courts likely adjust the mortgages post – crash so the Banks (the Mortgage Brokers will be long gone) wear it anyway ? …

    The Timaru Report: The trials of a first home buyer in a bull market … Keller MacDuff … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/127358038/the-timaru-report-the-trials-of-a-first-home-buyer-in-a-bull-market

    Library fines kept family on sidelines of NZ property market … Rob Stock … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127368850/library-fines-kept-family-on-sidelines-of-nz-property-market

    Median Multiples – Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

    All Editions – Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand housing: Building out of the bubble … and fast …

    New Zealand house prices: What went wrong? … Catherine Masters … OneRoof / NZ Herald

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40593

    … extract …

    … Unaffordable Auckland

    For the last 17 years, Auckland has consistently featured as one of the most unaffordable cities globally in the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

    Hugh Pavletich, who lives in Christchurch and who co-authors the surveys, says it’s an “obscenity” the average property value in New Zealand has reached $1m, according to the OneRoof-Valocity House Value Index.

    It takes around nine times the average (household) income to buy a house in this country and in Auckland the figure is 11 – but it shouldn’t be more than three, Pavletich says.

    He puts the blame squarely on the lack of land supply and the inappropriate way infrastructure has been financed.

    “I’ve been like a scratched record on this. I’ve been so boring for the last 18 years that if boringness was a crime I would have been jailed a long time ago.”

    New Zealand needs to learn from the United States, which bond finances its infrastructure. While the Government passed the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act last year, which had cross party support, passing a law is one thing and making it work another, he says.

    Successive governments have failed to solve the housing and infrastructure problem, although Pavletich praises former National Party Finance Minister Bill English and former Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler for getting the Productivity Commission to produce a report on housing affordability. …

    New Zealand Government (Key and English) Housing Affordability Announcement – 29 October 2012

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuCchEb-XOk

    … concluding …

    … The outlook

    One man who is not gloomy about the future is Hugh Pavletich, the Demographia housing affordability campaigner.

    That’s because of the record number of building consents the country is seeing (on a national population basis … consent / approval rate per 1000 population per annum measure …. likely the highest currently in the developed world)

    He points to StatsNZ data which shows that back in the last big building boom in the 1970s, under Norm Kirk’s Labour government, around 13.4 dwellings per 1,000 people were being built.

    If you look at consents now, it’s around 10.4 per 1000 population (latest monthly figures annualized), and that’s “not a million miles from the Kirk-era peak”.

    Selwyn District Council in the South Island is even busier, with around 27 new builds per 1,000 people, which Pavletich describes as “world (record) territory stuff”.

    He says New Zealand is building homes at a faster rate even than China, which has been pumping out 10.3 dwellings per 1,000 people (The Economist estimate 2020 15 million units for 1.45 billion population).

    Prices could come down in New Zealand, he thinks, because things can turn around very quickly (for example … what happens if the covid omicron variant quickly brings the pandemic to an end … and there is a rapid rebalancing of the products / services spending mix … and consumer spending rapidly shifts to … for example … travel / leisure spending and away from property and products ?) .

    And politics can change quickly, too. In a rare outing in October, Labour and National joined forces (as they did earlier with the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act with all other political parties in this instance) in announcing the Housing Supply Bill, which will allow up to 105,500 new homes to be built in less than 10 years.

    That’s welcome news, say both Pavletich and Grimes, with Grimes saying it could contain, or even reduce, house prices over horizons of five to 20 years – but not in the short term.

    Rise in new homes consented per 1,000 residents … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/rise-in-new-homes-consented-per-1000-residents

    Building consents issued: October 2021 … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-october-2021

  10. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Omicron science, good news … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EDBJBmlvXY

    New science explains South Africa’s low rates of omicron severe disease

    SARS-CoV-2 spike T cell responses induced upon vaccination or infection remain robust against Omicron … read and view more via hyperlink above …

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      Omicron, orientation and questions … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTftlM0MJUk

      I’m hoping the pandemic will be essentially over in a few weeks and move into an endemic phase. The question is of course, how will the next month pan out? … read and view more via hyperlink above …

  11. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    UPDATE … Omicron science, good news … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    … It seems the Aussies are waking up to the realities of the Omicron variant … if the front page of this mornings Sydney Morning Herald is any guide (my free article limit is exceeded) …

    Sydney Morning Herald

    https://www.smh.com.au/

    Opinion
    Coronavirus pandemic
    Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends

    Omicron, orientation and questions … Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTftlM0MJUk&t=1s

    I’m hoping the pandemic will be essentially over in a few weeks and move into an endemic phase. The question is of course, how will the next month pan out? … read and view more via hyperlink above …

    Dr John Campbell … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg