Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are putting in mild up sessions across the region as liquidity and trading volume continue to fall as we head into the last trading sessions of the year. The Australia dollar and other risk currencies are holding on to their overnight gains but remain in a holding pattern, while Wall Street futures are steady, Meanwhile Bitcoin wants to punch higher but can’t find any more buyers as it hovers just below the $49K level but gold is slowly advancing again, pushing further above the $1800USD per ounce level – but only just:

Mainland Chinese shares are flat going into the end of the session, with the Shanghai Composite up a handful of points at 3625 points while the Hang Seng Index is up slightly, lifting 0.2% to 23149 points. Japanese markets also doing a bit better with Nikkei 225 closing 0.5% higher at the 28723 point level while the USDJPY pair is staying highly elevated but not yet punching through the overnight high to remain only just above the 114 handle at last weeks high:

Australian stocks had a modest session higher, with the ASX200 closing up 0.3% to 7387 points while the Australian dollar has been unable to advance on its overnight gains, still hovering just above the 72 handle as it heads into the London open and still not making a new weekly high yet:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are holding on to their overnight gains with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price hovering just below the 4700 point level as the market is only 1% shy of its all time high – can it reach it before Christmas?

The economic calendar is very US-centric with the latest durable goods orders, core personal expenditure and Michigan consumer confidence prints.

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Comments

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Callin’ it! Xmas will be a bust for bricks and mordor.

    Had occasion to visit a shopping centre. Been putting it off because people. Turns out the worrying was for nothing, damn place was no more busy than any of the one or two visits I make a year. Lots of shop staff looking depressed at the emptiness of their existence. Jewellery shop staff looked like they wanted to neck themselves. Phone shops empty with staff watching tiktok. Target, JB and kmart virtually empty and cafes sparsely populated by oldies reading the Hun.

    Know what was busy? Nail joints. They had line ups longer than testing sites. Couldn’t believe it. Hairdressers not so much.

    But the shop that was really pumping? An independent book store. Could. Not. Move. It gladdened my heart no end.

    Oh, I did see xmas stress though. A minor dingle that left a BMW coupe minus a side mirror parked in the middle of the road with the owner chucking a tanty. A side mirror. He wanted to make the point that his luxury vehicle was ruined so he held up traffic in both directions. Luckily there is little traffic on the road and everyone waiting was comfortable in sitting and laughing at the looser.

    • Is it not that they can’t get gas for power stations over in Europe just now, as the use for heating is being prioritised ATM? Therefore oil looks good for power only because the alternative is nuthin?

  2. So my frail old parents have flown all the way to my place for what will very likely be the last ever big family Christmas we’ll all have together.

    Knowing this, my two nieces who both have tertiary level health related qualifications both decided it would be JUST FINE to duck up to Sydney for a couple of days partying with their mates this week. They both now have flu symptoms. FFS. One of them is between rentals, so she is staying with her Mum and Dad. So very likely both nieces, my sister and her husband won’t be here. FFS.

    Uncle LSWCHP is far from happy with those two young ladies.

      • Their Dad will be bringing some rapid tests home for them. But even if they are Covid negative, it’s still not a good idea to expose frail old people to potential viral infections of any kind, so the girls and their Dad will be staying home on Christmas day, while he remonstrates with them and they hopefully learn a serious and lasting life lesson about personal responsibility. If they intend to work in health care they need to have a long look in the mirror, because as future health professionals a similar action could have negative consequences for many people outside the family.

    • Errrr. Aren’t you one of the people who keeps trying to tell us COVID is nothing to worry about ?

        • Yeah mate. It’s obvious to anybody with a functioning brain, and “dr” smith clearly knew what I was referring to, but he just likes to drop snide little poisonous comments around the place to get a rise, without any intention of serious engagement.

          I picture him living by himself and playing computer games at 3am.

          • Good luck LSW. One of the good guys here.

            I never worked out Dr Smith. Think some doc threw away the wrong bit after circumcising him. He seems to rejoice in inane comments that irritate others.

            Sydney is full of Covid.
            2 weeks ago we were only seeing a handful of cases a week (large western Sydney hospital). That was a nice change after Sept and Oct. We thought we would get a few months break before things ramped up in Autumn.

            Now numerous cases per day, turning wards back into Covid wards, staff off sick, full PPE, staff worried about stuffing up the family Christmas…
            Morale is not great.

            Merry Fing Christmas.

        • i think the worry on the frail parents, i doubt LSWCHP is worrying on himself

          OK. But haven’t his nieces just gone and done exactly what he says people with their low risk profile should do – ie: live as if COVID is ‘just a cold’ ?

          • Because they’re all getting together with his frail parents, you obtuse boofhead!

            But you knew that, and you’re just fishing for compliments now!

          • Because they’re all getting together with his frail parents […]

            Yes, that much has been obvious from the start.

            But the point here is that Mr Bullet likes to argue that COVID isn’t really all that serious and that anyone who isn’t in a high risk profile should just get on with life – ie: exactly what his nieces have done.

            Now that an entirely predictable scenario has eventuated that just happens to be impacting him personally, people doing what he says they should do are lacking “personal responsibility” or are “dim young men”.

            I wonder if the thought that the ‘bed-wetters’ who want precautions taken around COVID had this sort of event in mind had even crossed his mind before now.

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            For the record, isn’t “obtuse boofhead” the raison d’etre for this place? Just sayin’.

      • Jeez, for a bloke who calls himself “dr” you are chronically dim. I normally ignore you in this forum because arguing with stupid people on the internet is a waste of time, but that was such an immensely foolish, spiteful and small-minded response that I thought I’d bite.

        I have no concerns for myself at all regarding covid, but as all the science shows, the older you get the more likely it is to kill you. My parents are both in their late 80s and very frail. In the last year my Dad has slipped while walking in the rain resulting in a fractured skull, and then broke his spine while playing golf. After a lifetime as an outdoors man, he’s no longer strong.

        If I was him I’d be vaccinated out the wazoo, and he is. The vaccines have a limited period of limited efficacy and can reduce the severity of an infection. For my parents, that’s worth having. The drugs also have largely unknown short and long term side effects, but if you’re pushing 90, who cares about long term side effects?

        Now, that’s all you get from me, little man. Run along now, and irritate somebody else.

        • Haven’t your nieces just done exactly what people like you have been telling them to do, because they’re in a low risk demographic ? Why are you mad at them for doing what you want everyone with their risk profile to do ?

        • And yet almost 2 years in you still haven’t cottoned on that the risk to them isn’t determined by the virus but the qty of carriers of the virus.
          real genius right here folks.

        • While you have my sympathy, I’m going to have to back up Smithy on this point. Vaccination doesn’t stop transmission but the evidence is overwhelming that there are positive effects in terms of transmission and very strong effects on the severity of infection and recovery. Individual responsibility requires us all to have all the facts so we can make an informed choice and the will to do what is necessary. Given how we have been lied to by politicians so much, we need to stop listening to them and listen to the experts. They would say it’s not just about your risk profile but, all those you come into contact with as well.

          • AlexD guys the nail on the head with this

            “They would say it’s not just about your risk profile but, all those you come into contact with as well.”

            Being vaccinated reduces the viral load which reduces the ability to spread as well as reducing the effects it would have on whomever catches it. It’s an easy win-win for the person who gets vaccinated and for anyone that they come into contact with.

    • Sorry to hear that mate.
      WA just had a new health advice warning. Mask wearing now mandatory after an unvaccinated French backpacker bar hopped through Northbridge while potentially infectious. Like you, crossing fingers this wont mess Christmas plans up or worse.

      • Yeah. Public health are used to young French backpackers spreading disease. But usually involving a different part of the body.

        • Mate, this is no laughing matter. We have a government that speaks about personal responsibility but, as Gunna has rightly pointed out repeatedly, where’s their personal responsibility for public health? If we go into lockdown here, that means my mother gets no visitors to her nursing home over Christmas and NY. Who the f*ck would allow unvaccinated tourists into the country given the scientific evidence they have available? The sick joke is our federal government preaching to us about personal responsibility.

          • They could have been here since before the end of 2019. I met a Brazilian guy who has been here for the years. The visas were extended for fruit picking. Some of his work stories were shockers. It hasn’t improved in the 15 out do years since I did it.

          • “They could have been here since before the end of 2019.”
            Changes nothing. When in Rome as they say. Roll up or go home.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Better life compared to the ones eastlink bought to eat the grass along the toll way, cheap arzez they don’t want to feed the sheep or give fight the weed

  3. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    2-0 down with 3 to play? England are done. No way they can come back from that.

    Should refund all the already sold tickets and head home now.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Not as horny as Harry’s favourite animal. The Dolphin.

          “ They have a prehensile pen!s , meaning it can swivel, grab and grope, much like a human hand. A prehensile pen!s helps males navigate the complex, labyrinth-like reproductive tracts of female dolphins.

          Dolphins don’t just use their pen!ses for baby-making, either. Bottlenose dolphins frequently copulate for pleasure, and often with members of the same se x. Dolphin se x doesn’t last long, only about ten seconds, but males can ejaculate multiple times an hour.”

          Geesh!

          • Reminds me of an old friend-of-a-friend story from Northern England where a bloke went swimming with one of those friendly dolphins and got in trouble with the Law cos he “scroobed his moonkey for ‘im” after the excited animal searched him out with his talented Member.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      thanks for sharing! i love factoids. any of those square lipped ones in Oz? i don’t remember seeing any

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      I shouldn’t expect anything better form ‘newsfax’… but still, really…

      Mr Hastings said his house has been “moving ever since” and is now tilting on an angle of around 70mm.

      Journalism. *facepalm*

      • In November, demolition began on the first home on Greenvale Crescent built just five years before. Diggers pulled the home to pieces which had already snapped in two after the rain event hit the Gold Coast.

        Now that’s some property snappin’ I can live with!

        Council demanding residents demolish there homes

        FMD!

        But it gets better:

        An enforcement notice, seen by news.com.au, demands a “safe, complaint and orderly” demolition with the threat of a $620,000 fine if it is not completed.

        The monkeys on typewriters aren’t writing Shakespeare, but they sure as hell are writing News.com.au real estate articles!

  4. Ducked down to Vic last week. Hadn’t seen my Melbourne relos for 2 years.

    My thinking has changed and I suspect Covid has a while to run.
    So it’s has become a case of “If not now, then when?”

    They have a holiday place down the Surf Coast. Great weather, great restaurants, and great to catch up.

    Went into Geelong one evening. F#&k knows why we did that. Kids wanted to see a floating Christmas tree. Man isn’t Geelong a dump? Young 20-somethings queuing up to get into some dive. Vomit on the street.

    Guess there really isn’t that much else for them to do. But all I could think was that one kid with omicron could take out the city.

    • Can’t bear it anymore… these puns are unbearable! One more pun and im going to bare it all and strangle youse with my bear hands.

    • You had to bring it up. Local ‘gregnant’ hippy had an water birthing party the other day… there were about 30 uh, assorted party goers and well wishers from what I understand.

  5. I knew that allowing the plague rats/natural laboratories for the evolution of a deadly virus… out of the asylum would be bad, but not this bad.
    well done Perrottet.

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Futures Ramp Above 4,700 On Growing Omicron Optimism … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-ramp-above-4700-growing-omicron-optimism

    Covid: Ministers watch data as studies say Omicron risk lower … BBC

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59765030

    ‘Inherently milder’: Australian state offers clues on Omicron … Al Jazeera

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/23/inherently-milder-australian-state-offers-clues-on-omicron

    If Omicron is the dominant variant in UK, why is the number of confirmed cases so low? … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/if-omicron-is-the-dominant-variant-in-uk-why-is-the-number-of-confirmed-cases-so-low

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … the slumping property sector …

    Manager Who Gained 85% on Distressed Debt Says Beware Evergrande … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/manager-who-gained-85-on-distressed-debt-says-beware-evergrande

    A top performing distressed debt investor says he’s avoiding China Evergrande Group, citing risks from the developer’s heavily discounted asset disposals and liabilities that may not be fully reflected in its balance sheet.

    Zhang Zhijun, chairman of private fund manager Beijing DingNuo Investment Management Co., said his firm has not bought Evergrande bonds since May after its previous holdings matured. Two of his company’s credit-focused funds have beaten 99% of peers this year, with one of them reaping a return of 84.7% as of Dec. 17, according to Simuwang.com, a Chinese financial-data provider. …

    …“We once tried to gauge the recovery ratio of Evergrande onshore bonds, but we gave up buying them as it has excessive wealth management products and financing off its balance-sheet,” Zhang said. …

    … China’s developers will continue facing difficulties amid a sales slowdown, Zhang said. A liquidity crisis has rippled through the sector, sparked by a government crackdown on excessive borrowing by builders and housing market speculation. … read more via hyperlink above …

    China Home Market Slump Persists as Prices, Sales Fall … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/china-home-market-slump-deepens-as-prices-fall-for-third-month

    It’s not just Evergrande. Smaller Chinese real estate developers are also wobbling as the cash crunch spreads. … Business Insider

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/evergrande-crisis-other-china-property-developers-in-trouble-outlook-2021-12