Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are putting in sharp bouncebacks across the region, spurred on by some very low liquidity as traders start their Christmas holidays and of course, oversold conditions surrounding the new OMICRON outbreak.   The Australia dollar and other risk currencies are relatively steady, with safe havens pulling back slightly while Wall Street futures are up and oil prices lifted slightly after a wide ranging session overnight. Meanwhile Bitcoin has launched higher, up through the $48K level but is still not making headway, as is hovers around the weekly lows:

Mainland Chinese shares are putting in a bounceback, with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 0.8% to 3621 points while the Hang Seng Index is also on the rise, up 0.6% to 22880 points as Japanese markets also move sharply higher with the Nikkei 225 taking back its previous losses to be up over 2% to 28490 points. Meanwhile the USDJPY pair is moving slightly higher, heading back above the mid 113 level as short term support builds from the starting point for the trading week:

Australian stocks were steady at the start of the session before slowly rising for the remainder of the day, with the ASX200 closing 0.8% higher at 7355 points while the Australian dollar has completely flat-lined despite the release of the latest RBA minutes, hovering just above the 71 level going into the London open:

Eurostoxx futures and S&P futures are bouncing back sharply on a change in risk sentiment with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price bouncing off the recent lows below the 4600 point level after at one stage looking to return to the start of month position at the 4500 point level:

The economic calendar includes the latest German consumer confidence print, then the US Redbook release.

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Comments

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Don’t take it personally brother. I feel a deep sense of solidarity with all my Bogan comrades.
      Even the mullet headed ones.
      But is it rude or a sign of true friendship to point out to a mate or associate that they should see a dentist ASAP to get that putrid bad breath of theirs attended to?
      Of course it’s an act of true friendship to point these things out.
      Like halitosis a truely terrible haircut should never be ignored.

      Edit – The dude in that clip singing, with a haircut like that, about stupid people?
      Is that supposed to be ironic?
      I can never tell.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          My best mate, in our late teens, had the full permed mullet and a limited edition 265 “White Kinght” Valiant charger.
          Geez I used to envy him for the chicks he regularly pulled.
          But,…man,…it just couldn’t have been the mullet!
          Could it?
          Do chicks dig mullets?

  1. India has the right idea……cut markets off at the knees

    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-regulator-restricts-futures-trading-some-agri-commodities-2021-12-20/

    New Chilean leader has the right idea as well, he said that Chile coup was the start of the neo-liberal order and he will be the finish of it……..no more access to the public credit for friends of the high. Lots of South America going left…..Brazil next

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59715941

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      If only we could say Australia was “Going left” with a new ALP federal Government.
      But Deconstructing our Neoliberal order just doesn’t seem to be on their agenda unfortunately.
      To many still waffle on about how good Keating was.
      It never goes down well when I say he’s the bastard who Brough Neoliberalism to Australia!

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        Yup. Too smart for his and Australia’s good. Or the most corrupt Labor politician ever. Still can’t tell.

        Why don’t Australians get this?

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Can’t tell you the number of times I’ve had to explain the concept of ‘inclusive or’ to people in this country.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          He was a great parliamentary performer.
          But just like Clinton and Blair he happily sold out his Working class voter base to serve the interests of global plutocracy.
          Thats what neoliberalism does when it infects your political system. The individual personalities are almost irrelevant.

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Bapak Keating would be a tad annoyed that you, a true son of the great Australian Labour Party would place him with these two slimes …….I’d also throw in tuxedo Hawkie too. Whitlam was cut short but he had shades of old labour ( or maybe my memories of that time are a tad too romantic )

    • Cow or not, you still have to get consent.
      It’s not enough to claim that you thought she was in the moo’d.

      • The modelling assumes limited safety measures like masks or social distancing

        It seems these would be low impact sensible measures to reintroduce

        Of course , “muh freedoms”

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        QR data is been asked for by police and different others ( shared a link few days ago about it) not to mention The information worth billions to many companies

    • Have you seen the queue for COVID testing today? People can’t get a test means the numbers will be much lower. A lot of people will be very very angry when they miss their flight due to inability to get a PCR result within 72 hours.

      • I knew someone would get it

        Hey I’ve been meaning to ask – I saw a weird Subue the other day. Old body, a panelvan(?)-lookinf shape, body and squat, mint condition in Lismore. Never seen one before. Know what model it is?

    • To give advice in Australia, without meeting sophisticated advice exemptions, you need to hold a type of license, an AFSL. This is to allow you to say to another person “I recommended you {insert transaction/behaviour} in regards to this financial product, AND to qualify why this advice was given.

      As a supplement to this, we have the “proxy advice” market, which are institutes which attempt to influence investments by declaring themselves overseers of corporate governance. You may think it makes good business sense, or not, to do X. Let market forces play and bang, you’ll measure your outcome.

      What the proxy advice market does instead is put forward prescriptions to shareholders on how to vote for board elections of companies. So for example, a market response to Anthropogenic Climate Change would be to deviate one’s product response. A “proxy advice” would be vote in/out the company executives if they do/don’t take action.

      Here in Australia the proxy advice market, as all things in Oz, is an oligarchy. it’s also something that has no skin in the game and very little accountability, so you can be sure it attracts bottom feeding ex-parliamentarians and gender/race/whatever quota hires. Hence these ‘proxy recommendations’ are very rarely decided on facts, and more on ideology.

      What Frydenberg has moved to do is two steps, making ‘proxy advice’ AFSL holders and enforcing separation from Industry Funds.

      The first will be a step to qualify decisions (the publishing, and reasoning why behind decisions), then to be able to hold them accountable when they are wrong.

      The second is to have the process more dialectic, as to stop it being a rubber stamp process.

      https://acsi.org.au/media-releases/governments-proxy-regulations-attack-super-members-financial-interests/

      Here is a bingo card of what you’d expect in response.

      A second rate quota hire as CEO
      Appeals to emotion about their maintaining the status quo
      Safeguards are in place in other areas, so we should be exempt from standards.

      • “A second rate quota hire as CEO”

        Built in from the so called outside expert agencies which IMO has a profit incentive to offer big ticket $$$$$ people and the flip side is the market drove it because anything less brought on questions about the firm hiring for less et al ….

        Welp so much for utility-maximization models ….

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Brace For 2022 As Global Credit Impulse Goes Negative … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-credit-impulse-goes-negative

    Authored by Christopher Dembik via Saxo Markets

    The economist consensus is optimistic about economic growth in 2022. …

    … But what if the consensus is wrong? …

    … Our proprietary leading indicator for growth, the global credit impulse, flashes a warning to major economies. … The global credit impulse is now in contraction territory, running at minus 1.3 % of global growth, according to our preliminary estimates. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … Bloomberg reported on noted real estate analyst Ivy Zelmans views back early November this year …

    Housing Analyst Famous for Pre-Crash Warnings Is Concerned Again … Prashant Gopal … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-03/housing-analyst-famous-for-pre-crash-warnings-is-concerned-again

    • Zelman says market is at or near peak with corrections coming
    • Price gains are unsustainable, inflated by investors, she says

    Ivy Zelman, the housing analyst famous on Wall Street for calling the top of the market in 2005, less than two years before the collapse, sees warning signs once again. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … Ivy Zelman made her reputation correctly predicting the ‘07 crash. Michael Lewis, author of Liars Poker explained this soon after, which I incorporated within a 2009 article …

    Housing Bubbles And Market Sense … Hugh Pavletich … Scoop New Zealand

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0901/S00046.htm?ref=patrick.net

    … extract ..

    … Michael Lewis, author of Liars Poker wrote recently within a Portfolio com article The End of Wall Streets Boom – most within the finance and investment sector, appeared to be oblivious to the existence of housing bubbles and even less aware of their consequences. As Michael Lewis explains – during late 2004 – only a few, such as Steve Eisman, Ivy Zelman and Meredith Whitney understood that the core problems were the inflating housing bubbles –

    “At the end of 2004, Eisman, Moses and Daniel shared a sense that unhealthy things were going on in the housing market. Lots of firms were lending money to people who shouldn’t have been borrowing it. They thought Alan Greenspan’s decision after the internet bust to lower interest rates to 1% was a travesty that would lead to some terrible day of reckoning. Neither of these insights was entirely original. Ivy Zelman, at the time the housing market analysis at Credit Suisse, had seen the bubble forming very early on. There is a simple measure of sanity in housing prices, the ratio of median house price to income. Historically, it runs around 3 to 1, by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4 to 1.’All these people were saying it was nearly as high as some other countries’ Zelman says ‘ But the problem wasn’t just that it was 4 to 1. In Los Angeles it was 10 to 1 and in Miami it was 8.5 to 1. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They weren’t real buyers. They were speculators’. Zelman alienated clients with her pessimism, but she couldn’t pretend everything was good. ‘It wasn’t that hard in hindsight to see it’she says ‘It was very hard to know when it would stop’. Zelman spoke occasionally with Eisman and always left these conversations feeling better about her views and worse about the world. ‘You needed the occasional assurance that you weren’t nuts’ she says. She wasn’t nuts. The world was.” …

    … Check out the ‘multiple stretch’ … back then … and 3rd qtr 2020 (estimate current yourself) …

    Demographia International Housing Affordability: All Editions

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand’s omicron overprotective nanny state approach … continues …

    … Why are the vested interests of the health sector controlling the politicians ? …

    Covid 19 Omicron: At least 27,000 flyers in limbo after Omicron border delay … John Weekes and Katie Harris … New Zealand Herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-omicron-at-least-27000-flyers-in-limbo-after-omicron-border-delay/R4FYBO6GB2XKPLD5HLX37KLOS4/

    … Is there anyone in the New Zealand National (Conservative) Party with a spine … like the United Kingdom Conservative Party former leader Thereasa May ? …

    ‘You can’t keep stopping and starting the economy every time there is a new variant’: Theresa May blasts Boris’s handling of Omicron and demands the Government ‘learns to live’ with changes in Covid … Emer Scully … UK Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10281365/Former-Prime-Minister-Theresa-slams-Governments-handling-Omicron-variant.html

    … echoed by United Kingdom’s GBNews host, New Zealander Dan Wootton, who was heavily critical of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern as well …

    Dan Wootton’s Greatest Briton | December 7th … UK GBNews / Youtube
    … h/t PH …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEiDj1ZkR1Q

    … Just today … watch closely United Kingdom Prime Minister ‘Buckling’ Boris Johnson’s announcement …

    Boris Johnson says no further restrictions before Christmas – but situation remains ‘finely balanced’ due to Omicron … SkyNews

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-says-no-further-restrictions-before-christmas-but-situation-remains-finely-balanced-due-to-omicron-12501575