Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are all retracing in unison in the last session for the trading week due to the very mixed results  on Wall Street and European shares overnight. The USD is regaining strenght against risk currencies although Euro is still under pressure coming into the London session, while the Australian dollar remains well above the 71 cent level. Meanwhile gold remains unchanged, still flat for the week as it unable to push through the $1790USD per ounce level as Bitcoin continues to deflate, now retracing below the $49K level as price heads back to the start of week gap down level:

Mainland Chinese shares are putting in a soft session with the Shanghai Composite down more than 0.3% to 3663 points while the Hang Seng Index is taking back its previous gains to fall 0.7% to be just above the 24000 point level. Japanese markets continue their pullback  with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% lower at 28540 points with the USDJPY pair still flatlining at the mid 113 level with no new session lows, but also remaining below trailing short term resistance:

Australian stocks followed the Japanese lead, with the ASX200 retracing just under 0.3% to be back below the 7400 point level as the Australian dollar continues its overnight pause at just below the mid 71 level, which puts it right back on last week’s intrasession high overnight, thus not putting a new weekly high as expected:

Eurostoxx futures and S&P futures continue to stall out here going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price rejecting key 4700 point resistance overhead that still needs to be cleared to call this Omicron led dip over:

The economic calendar finishes the week with German and US inflation reports.

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Comments

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      A J O B is just something that gets in the way of actually succeeding in life.

      Edit: real estate agent and property developer roles are a calling. Not a job.

    • $2.3m for a 3 BR house? And the budget can’t cope with a $40k loss in income (which is only $20k after tax). That is living with no margin for error.

      Maybe she should just sell the house (at a profit no doubt) and move to some region where she can save the world without hating it.

    • I was on $250k per year in Sydney before I quit my job. I could have bought a $2M house with that income but instead decided to be less successful and buy a house with a mortgage of under $200k. My main motivation was to be free to do work / jobs I wanted to do, not ones I had to do. I know this makes me a “Looser”.

  1. @ Gav … Hay why would you believe anything a YT’ber like Dr John Campbell had to say, especially during a pandemic, especially when they are a Nurse with a PhD/E that likes to trot/milk the Doctor [Milgrams white coat] to lend authority to his personal opinions when he is not a medical doctor nor any sort of Scientist working in any discipline related to Covid19, not that he has any income incentives related to followers and eyeballs on YT … so Jordan Peterson mate …. on the latter I hear he considers himself a prophet of the good word these days … lmmao …

    Hope you read the link on crypto … intelligenthttps://mattstoller.substack.com/p/cryptocurrencies-a-necessary-scam

    With that in light don’t find it interesting the Kock’s posse is up in arms about all this anti free market anti trust stuff ….

      • Gav linked to John Campbell in morning links, crypto is a social movement based on an imaginary reality its trying to fix or dupe marks for a payday, and Kocks will Kock …

    • I presume you are upset at John Campbell mentioning the possibility of Omicron not being that serious. He has been quite clear in saying Omicron could still be very serious and too early to say for certain based on anecdotes.

      • I have no emotional attachment to the said person, one way or another, but just pointing out the particulars of this said person and why that should trigger trip wires for those that wobble on about due diligence and being a sucker … because if your one of the latter you deserve the consequences … sadly if you multiply that factor by a big enough pop% you get all kinds of interesting door prizes on your way to a dysfunctional society and all its gifts …

        • It would be naive to believe that any information source was not influenced by vested interests. The popularity of John Campbell or that Medcram guy comes from calling it as they see it, rather than being the usual YT melodramatic provocateur.

          • Are you seriously arguing popularity is a factor in what constitutes a fact …. regardless of his lack of acumen on a very dynamic scientific matter and whatever profit motives or bias influenced psychological dramas he has is moot – ????

          • I didn’t imply that at all. They are both unemotional and objective in their presentations of FACTS.

            Last year you joined the coordinated character assassination of Chris Martenson who correctly called the virus as being a lot more serious than #justtheflu. How about you quit with the ad hominem and address the facts and arguments that these people present.

        • I never forwarded that it was just the flu fknuckle just the opposite, strangely or not you have not refuted my facts about Campbell ….

    • Well this has gotten strangely out of hand, Dr Campbell is just a guy with an opinion, a perhaps more educated opinion than many. He’s stressed that Omnicron could still be serious and wanted borders to be shut to stop the spread until we knew more, but early data he’s observed suggests it may be less severe than Delta. But it’s early data and nobody knows for sure. I watch him like I watch any YT personality, such as Russell Brand, because I value their opinion and perspective is all. Doesn’t mean I subscribe to what they say as being the definitive last call on a topic.

      I quite like the fact that Crypto rubs you the wrong way, maybe I’ll go buy some more. haha.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    Oh M G [spammy avoidance]

    LIVE: ABC News is warning of CHRISTMAS BEER SHORTAGE.

      • Funny to imagine some people having to time travel back and live through the great depression, WWI&WWII, only to pop out the other side in the late 50s/60s only to have neoliberalism become dominate in the mid 70s and think it was utopia and now have their freedoms and liberties [?????] stolen[tm] by a dumb virus and equally dumb market based approach to handle it because of decades of white anting the state so EMH could do its thangy … you know debenture everyone not in the elite club and create a two tier society of winnars and slaves …

    • The CHO of Northern Ireland let the cat out of the bag……….they are all going to go after Christmas………enjoy the break while you can

      https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59600996

      What is puzzling to me about Omicron with all these reports of less severe symptoms and disease is how the hell is it spreading so quickly……..with less coughing etc. it shouldn’t be spreading like it is……must be a really high viral load.

      • “must be a really high viral load” like duh and no one is dealing with the aerosol transmission because that would cost more money, you know like fixing lead in public water and then wonder why kids are dumber … more violent …

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          You think it’s lead in water causing all the social problems? Interesting theory

          • Did not say – all – but you are aware of the effect taking lead out of petrol did to crime rates back in the day, which IMO the conservatives attributed to harsher criminal laws … don’t you just love a mob that extenuates all its failures on others e.g. commies, socialists, anti free markets, yet will burnish itself with every unearned accolade it can scrounge to buff itself in Bernays glow …

      • Think I read from one of your links that it’s substantially higher , x1000? And multiplies faster in the body so establishes quicker before immune system can respond

        • Currant estimates are 4x/5x more virulent which means the dramas are reinfection, escape infection of the vaccinated, load on the system [not only health], and a wary eye to the next mutation that will tip over all the plans of mice and men. The one ponders the long term effects of single or multiple infections and long covid.

          • Long Covid? Unless the research has progressed there isn’t an agreed clinical definition of what it is. It’s a nickname.

        • Before the immune system can respond?

          I’m sure the immune system does just fine as not a single person has died anywhere on the Planet from this overhyped flu.

    • This is a huge concern and not just today but something historical in context, something that need to be understood in historical context e.g. classical economics and today are not the same e.g. comparative advantage only works in a static economic environment back in antiquity and does not apply to currant globalist economic dynamics. Then again I pose the question of those that built mistrust in the state to forward some nutter ideological purity contest regardless of its present malfunctions because utopia was always around the corner … and riches beyond imagination for the faithful …

    • I haven’t read the whole article, but imagine you’re a black person in the US and you’ve read the history of sterilisation of certain minority groups etc.. no wonder some people believe in conspiracy theories, because at this rate a conspiracy is just a spoiler alert to what the future holds.

      • From December 20, arrivals to the Northern Territory — including returning residents — cannot travel outside of Alice Springs, Katherine or Greater Darwin for two weeks, even if they are fully vaccinated.
        phizzer just announced 4th booster
        And although I can mingle with patrons and go to bunnings as vx free, next week the qld vx rate will hit its targets and so i’m not allowed to go to a cafe or bunnings.

    • Just read the whole article, highlights a lot of problems with the media for sure and leadership in general.

  3. Would it be possible to put spike proteins in the seat of all public transport and cafes, pubs, etc, so that whenever a person sits down they get some spike proteins into their bum?

    This would allow the body to slowly develop an immune response to it, without the danger of shooting 3 months worth of mRNA into the arm all at once.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Why did you choose the bum as the delivery mechanism? Interesting choice!
      And approved by Reusa

    • Jumping jack flash

      First Bunnings, but eventually McDonalds will have drive thru vaccinations, and you can get fries with it if you wish.

      By 5 years we will certainly require weekly, perhaps daily vaccinations, and every “infection” will be totally mild to the point of asymptomatic of course, but everyone on earth will be infected so cases will be into the billions.

      This is the perfect scenario.

      Years ago i was informed that almost everyone carries flu virus in their nasal cavity and it depends on immune system health as to whether it breaks out into full infection or not. Perhaps thats correct, i dont know, but if it is then i assume there’ll be a similar thing with SARS2, or perhaps 3 by then…

  4. The Demons’ draw is a disgrace. No home game v the Pies on QBW or Toiges Anzac Eve? WTAF? Can duck up the Pacific May to see them flog the Suns at Metricon r2 which is good. TTP see you at the G round 1 v Dogs?

    The Worlds at Wollongong is epic though. Allez, Alaphillipe!!

  5. I think Lyon is cooked, couldn’t take any wickets against India last year either.

    Bring on that bloodnut leggie.

  6. Read some of the covid articles and comments from today. Christ.
    Why are there so many anti vaxxer commenters in this site?
    There has to be something in the character of people drawn to this place which more likely than not makes them impervious to evidence, along the lines:
    – debt is bad
    – low interest rates are always bad
    – MMT ism ism
    – inflation is out of control (despite lowest avg inflation rate in inflation targeting countries over the last 25 years since the gold standard)
    – Central bankers want inflation
    – private banks = Monetary system
    – covid is just the flu
    – lockdowns don’t work
    – vaccines don’t reduce transmission

    On and on and on…

          • Saying IS-LM is wrong makes no sense. All it is doing is plotting the relationship between interest rates and output on demand for financial assets & goods. You can say the slopes are wrong but not that the model is wrong. this point was lost on Kelton.

      • what is your take?
        why all the crankist positions on these topics from the commentariat?
        is it just a coincidence that the anti vaxxers also said lockdowns don’t work, inflation statistics are a lie etc. etc. etc.
        I just think primitive minds are always open to conspiracy (eg. Stalin, Trump) because the truth is always so much more interesting and complicated than the cartoon conspiracy.

      • Yep.

        I just wish they’d go out and catch it and give it to their kids and parents. Man up and walk the walk

        • You can’t have it both ways, do you want the unvaccinated to get COVID, or do you want them to be locked out from their workplaces, non-essential retail, licensed venues, public transport etc etc? Must be hard to make your mind up when you have so many forms of cruelty to choose from to wish upon those you’re being conditioned to hate.

      • interest rates are low because ex ante saving is too high.
        the rate of interest itself is neither good nor bad.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          interest rates are low because ex central bankers pushed 1s and 0s out the door like there was never going to be a tomorrow ever again and the current central bankers are doing much the same

          • they only started pushing 1s and 0s out the door *after* interest rates went to zero.
            In 08 when the Fed funds was cut to the effective lower bound the Fed only had around 800b in asset I think.

            Again evidence, chronology..

            and theory. CB cannot just pin down interest rates with money printing. 8000% interest rates in Weimar Germany weren’t due to a lack of money.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          Are you smokin’ crack tonight? Of course interest rates are low because CBs cut their cash rates… As far as I’m concerned that’s the only rate that matters.

          But you’re the one talking about the cause being something other than that… i.e. why are they STILL low, right?

          You’ve essentially just argued against your own point. Weird.

          • they cut their cash rates reluctantly to try and hit a lower equilibrium real rate of interest.
            We’ve only known for about 120 years that CBs can’t just choose an interest rate.

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Yes, they can. Exactly that. Exactly why all the 1s and 0s are impt.

            Cut rates to near zero then make money even cheaper by making it more plentiful. The ONLY way rates go up in that environment is if input costs go up. That leaves energy as the only candidate these days.

    • Sweeper,

      I am curious to know whether you can answer the question that Guy Debelle couldn’t. How much (household) debt is too much debt? and if there is no answer to that question then would it be prudent to draw a conservative line in the sand? or to find out the answer to that question by experience?

      • how much saving (debt) is too much saving? So if you want less saving (debt) tax the savers and reduce their interest.

        • Taxing the savings of the poor bastard worker who can’t even afford a deposit is ludicrous. How about withdrawing the TFF and taxing the crap out of all the offshore funding that has found its way into Australian house prices?

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Yeah I agree it’s way more nuanced then what sweeper is claiming,

            sweeper and skippy i think are both boomers with no concept of doing it hard

          • they can’t afford a deposit because the asset price is too high. the asset price is too high because too much saving is bidding down the interest rate.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            I think Savvy has got Skippy and Sweep fully sussed out.
            Fken, double their income every 7 years, Boomers!

          • @sweeper, I am disappointed that Progressives like yourself have such an unempathetic view towards workers’ savings. If there is no way for workers to save then we effectively have the debt peonage that the likes Michael Hudson have been warning us about.

          • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

            ^^ yea like poor people dont have cars, …wait i heard that before …you must be joe hocky

          • The PV of workers liabilities (lifetime obligations) exceeds their assets. its just accounting. ‘

          • no it isn’t. learn how to comprehend national income accounting and the implication of income distribution.

          • Clearly too much red cordial has been consumed tonight.

            @,Sweeper rates are too low, they are effectively negative already if you factor in the true inflation rate right now. They are too low becuse they are destroying the purchasing power of fiat, whilst average workers are seeing meagre wage rises.

            Again all this suits the already wealthy and asset rich types, the retirees trying to live off interest with money in the bank is screwed and forced to buy into riskier investments. Which works until it doesn’t.

            Basically it’s a form of trickle up economics.

          • I think what Sweeper is trying to say in an obscure and roundabout fashion is that the wealthy are hoarding (saving) all the money.

    • Why are there so many anti vaxxer commenters in this site?

      Maybe because these latest “vaccines” are complete dogs – dangerous and ineffective.

      Let me ask you this Sweeper. How many people would have to die in Australia from these jabs to TURN YOU ANTI-VAXXER?

      • why deal in silly fantasies which have already been avoided and were never a possibility anyway.
        Lets deal in reality.. what made you anti vax?

        • I am anti specific vax’s eg mRNA Covid jabs.
          I don’t like the rushed release, the testing cut short, the dishonest trial methods where adverse reactions were removed from the results – that’s fraud in my book.
          I don’t like the censorship of alternate opinions, of Ivermectin, etc
          I don’t like the advertising “Safe and Effective”. You give me the figures and I will decide if I think it is safe enough and effective enough for me.
          I don’t trust the people pushing it.
          I don’t trust the people profitting from it.
          The obsession with a virus that kills a small percentage of the population is strange.
          I don’t like that the virus was probably man-made by mad scientists and no one seems to care about investigating that, but everyone seems to want to force me to take an untested product of other mad scientists.
          I could go on.

          What made you so trusting of these jabs?

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            I don’t like the censorship of alternate opinions, of Ivermectin, etc
            There’s no censorship, the fact that there’s no evidence that it works is open disclosure.
            Also you don’t really get to call a treatment that has no evidence of working an “opinion”. I don’t get to have an opinion on whether gravity is a thing or not.

          • There’s no censorship, the fact that there’s no evidence that it works is open disclosure.
            Also you don’t really get to call a treatment that has no evidence of working an “opinion”. I don’t get to have an opinion on whether gravity is a thing or not.

            If more people died from having the vaccine than not having the vaccine, is that another sign ‘that just means it’s working’? Chest pain? That just means it’s working? Headache and half your body paralysed? That’s just means it’s working.

            More people died in the key clinical trial for Pfizer’s Covid vaccine than the company publicly reported

            Pfizer told the world 15 people who received the vaccine in its trial had died as of mid-March. Turns out the real number then was 21, compared to only 17 deaths in people who hadn’t been vaccinated.

            (I reported accurately on this study on Twitter on July 29, and the next day Twitter suspended me for a week for doing so, the fourth of my five defamatory “strikes” for Covid “misinformation.”)

  7. Anyway, I am glad to report from the above discussion that my suspicions were not justified.
    The commentators here are not crankists and are open to revise priors based on evidence.
    They no longer think low interest rates are bad, CBs cause low rates and want inflation or that vaccines are dangerous.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      You forgot recanting of prejudiced attitudes and welcoming of a merit-based immigration system with a generous humanitarian component.

      Or perhaps you didn’t forget and just thought it was a bridge too far.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … As the housing bubble bursts … what next ? …

    Evergrande and Kaisa default: Two Chinese giants on the brink … News com au

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/crisis-deepens-for-chinese-property-goliath-evergrande-as-it-defaults-for-first-time/news-story/cdccf88d10c0e3f64bce30537fba26a3

    The debt-laden property developer Evergrande, which had racked up debts worth $A420 billion, failed to pay bond repayments and has been declared in default by Fitch Ratings.

    A second property company also joined Evergrande in default overnight after days of speculation and a plummeting share price. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …

    Evergrande Says It’s Back to Work, But Homeowners Say Not Fast Enough | VIDEO … Wall Street Jounal / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1asNsDsbPOE

    Evergrande and Kaisa Default! … Patrick Boyle … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyvMx96zcdc

    Chinese State Owned Developers Rescue Local Governments! … Patrick Boyle / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoM5tm_FErw

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand housing: More signs of market turn …

    Auckland family priced off housing ladder find home as signs of market turn mount … Geraden Carr … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300472623/auckland-family-priced-off-housing-ladder-find-home-as-signs-of-market-turn-mount

    The Eva family had almost given up on finding a new home when father Samuel attended a Ray White auction online last Thursday.

    Then he watched 13 auctions in a row fail to reach reserve price, and when the property in Auckland’s Te Atatu North he and wife Kristy had their eye on came up, he was the only bidder.

    Eva could afford $1 million after selling the family’s Ranui home for a record street price, but sensing a shift to a buyer’s market, he took a different approach, and managed to get the property for $925,000.

    Eva’s experience is the most recent hint of a fundamental shift in New Zealand’s housing market – a shift that mega landlord Matthew Ryan believes could see prices fall 20 per cent. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … following recent report …

    Mega landlord says ‘wind change’ in market could see prices fall 20 per cent … Geraden Cann … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300467800/mega-landlord-says-wind-change-in-market-could-see-prices-fall-20-per-cent