Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar free falls as Fed hikes return

Asian stock markets are having very solid returns in response to the big bouncebacks on Wall Street and European shares overnight with the USD retreating slightly against risk currencies with the Australian dollar heading up through the 71 cent level. Meanwhile gold is starting to get momentum after being flat all week, currently pushing through the $1790USD per ounce level, finally not making any new session lows. Bitcoin on the other hand is slowly rolling over after its mild melt up to the $51K level, currently barely holding above the $50K level as short term momentum reverts back to the medium term downtrend:

Mainland Chinese shares are playing catchup with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 1% to decisively cross back above the 3600 point level while the Hang Seng Index puts in a flat session, currently at 23966 points. Japanese markets are continuing their own bounceback with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.2% higher at 28819 points with the USDJPY pair also slightly rolling over going into the London session, to retrace below the mid 113 level and remain below trailing short term resistance:

Australian stocks also had a very positive day, with the ASX200 lifting more than 1.2% to be just above the 7400 point level as the Australian dollar managed to extend above the 71 handle after clearing short term resistance overnight:

Eurostoxx futures and S&P futures are lifting somewhat going into the London open, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price slowing down a little as it heads to the key 4700 point resistance level that had broken in this recent Omicron led dip:

The economic calendar will include the Canadian central bank interest rate meeting then the EIA oil survey.

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Comments

    • The problem is when you had your last shot……for Omicron you really need two plus booster to have any protection, but many countries are like the US who actually only have 35% of eligible people at all protected because they didn’t push boosters hard enough or early enough ( sort of like us but we were later starting )…….see part 3 of this post

      https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1467610941323939847

      Omicron should rip through places like Florida extremely quickly

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Geez I hope we don’t go into lockdown before the New Year’s eve p!ss to up.
        It’s a super spreader event I’m really looking forward to.

        • Don’t worry Mr Morrison is obviously going to do a Boris and the Labour people are happy for him to be given his head in the hope it blows up in his face just in time for the election. We won’t be in real trouble until about Easter with the school holidays nicely timed.

          All good unless you are looking to get some elective surgery done.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Well it is one of the only times of year that you can give your wife’s girlfriends or mates wives a bit of a pash without getting into trouble.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          Have HR told you to stop hanging mistletoe over the doorway to the ladies loo yet?

        • C'est de la folieMEMBER

          Just wait until the election campaign……..

          Particularly if it unfolds as the nation is quietly informed that it is time to get the fourth booster shot, and loads of three jabbed people are starting to go down as the weather cools.

          We’ll be getting Jack Nicholson style assessments of whether we can handle the truth or not, on a coulis of white fiibs about who decided we didnt need to lockdown in Sydney last June and how Covid found its way to Wilcannia etc

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Perhaps someone can put up a private member’s bill to allow a federal ICAC to dispense Code Reds.

    • Riccardo Bosi – completely unhinged bloke. This kind of idiot is why my in-laws didn’t get vaccinated and now are suffering with Covid badly.

      • Thanks for the backgrounding Gav. He has intense, righteous, convincing, messianic moments intertwined with his rhetoric that had me wondering….. a tad like a lot of our current born to lead lead troupe.

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand local government: In case you are wondering why they don’t have the capacity to finance infrastructure and allow affordable housing to be built …

    … If you have a problem, its always a good idea to start with the money … and then get on the path of actually sorting out the problem …

    … Within todays Interest Co NZ ‘What happened Wednesday’ David Chaston makes the following comment …

    https://www.interest.co.nz/business/113685/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-home-wednesday-lowest-mortgage-rates-rise-buyers

    (LOCAL GOVERNMENT ) UNRESTRAINED AGAIN

    After restraining themselves for 2020 (‘restraining’ being defined as keeping increases below +3% pa), local authorities are pushing their rates and regulatory income up fast again. In September 2021, the increase was +8.1% pa. The average increase over the past 25 years has been +5.5% per year. Prior to the GFC increases in this monopoly funding exceeded +10% pa regularly. Since the GFC there was a brief jump in 2015, and then a race up in 2018-2019. Now they are back with more substantial claims.

    … The major purpose of the Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys was to measure the degrees of functionality within the local government sector. By this measure at a national level, New Zealand has the most dysfunctional local government sector in the developed world …

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

    … and generally the bigger they are … the bigger the mess …

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

    … The public sector at both central and local level in Australia and New Zealand is generally paid way more than their counterparts in the United States and Canada. Within about 5 States of the United States, it is mandatory for all State / local employees remuneration to be published … so the paying public gets a clearer picture of how their hard earned tax dollars are spent. Check out The Texas Tribune for starters …

    https://salaries.texastribune.org/

  2. Vic and NSW are now at close to 95% first dose.
    It’s estimated that psychopaths are at least 1% of the population.
    While it may be too far to say all anti-vaxxers are psychopaths, it is almost guaranteed that all psychopaths are anti-vaxxers

    • Someone ElseMEMBER

      Nah, psychopaths (not DSM-V’s APSDs) are self-absorbed and selfish but largely rational. I reckon they’d be jabbed just out of self interest. They might lead the rabble but they aren’t gunna take the WuFlu for the team.

      Now sociopaths, those acquired disordered nut-jobs, I reckon there’s your entry-level anti-jabbers there.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        Supportive anecdata: Had one in my workplace use the ‘A’ word today about planning for workplaces in the Org becoming no-jab no-entry.

        Not particularly special… except for the fact that s/he is in a corporate role. And would be responsible for policy implementation locally.

        A special kind of…

      • Yep he’s a bed wetter for sure. Keeps attacking the unvaxxed , getting boring. May be his mum’s interstate and he doesn’t know how use the washing machine.

        It’s just a phase you’ll grow out of it sweeper.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “why go French in the first place”

      Kick Backs of course.

      “French submarine maker — then called DCNS — is alleged to have paid more than 114 million euros ($134 million) in kickbacks to a shell company linked to Abdul Razak Baginda, a close Najib associate who brokered the deal.

      Razak Baginda’s Mongolian mistress Altantuya Shaariibuu, who was said to have demanded a cut for translating during negotiations, was shot dead and her body blown up with military-grade plastic explosives near Kuala Lumpur in 2006.

      The case sank off the radar after a Malaysian court in 2008 cleared Razak Baginda of abetting the murder, sparking allegations of a huge cover-up to protect Najib.

      But Najib’s election defeat has reignited interest from Malaysia’s anti-graft body.

      The MACC official said Razak Baginda may also be hauled up to assist in their investigation of the submarine purchase.

      A French investigation since 2010 has already led to four French executives involved in the deal being charged as well as an open criminal case against Razak Baginda”

      https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/contractwinning-french-sub-builder-dcns-tied-up-in-deadly-malaysian-bribery-saga-20160523-gp17ce.html

      https://corruption-tracker.org/case/the-malaysian-scorpene-submarine-affair

  3. Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant (Kann News): 3-dose-vaxxed person transmitted suspected Omicron to another 3-dose-vaxxed person.

    ——-

    Google Translate:

    “Another cardiologist, about 70 years old, contracted from the verified cardiologist from Sheba Hospital, who is suspected of being a carrier of variant Omicron – both vaccinated with 3 doses.

    The first patient returned from a conference in England last Wednesday, and until he felt symptoms And visited two more conferences”

    • I noticed netherlands and belgium maxxed out testing capacity a couple of weeks ago. Was wondering why it’d plateaued

  4. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Covid Omicron Variant …

    Covid live: over-40s in England now eligible for booster after three months; South Korea surge sparks alarm … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/08/covid-live-news-south-korea-surge-sparks-hospital-alarm-stealth-omicron-variant-found

    The uninvited Christmas guest: is New Zealand prepared for Omicron’s inevitable arrival? … The Conversation / Radio New Zealand

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/457465/the-uninvited-christmas-guest-is-new-zealand-prepared-for-omicron-s-inevitable-arrival

    Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK, says scientist … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/08/omicron-covid-cases-doubling-every-two-to-three-days-in-uk-says-scientist

    Pfizer Vaccine Provides Less Immunity to Omicron Variant … Bloomberg / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4L-yaic_i-o