Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Some hope is creeping into risk markets across Asia despite further falls in stock markets overnight with Wall Street and European futures also creeping higher going into the important manufacturing PMI prints. USD is re-engaging to the upside after a slew of running to safety in Euro and Yen while the Australian dollar is finally moving higher after a better than expected GDP print. Bitcoin is dead flat, hovering just above the $57K level while gold is trying to pick itself off the floor following last night’s swift kick to the knees, getting back above short term support at the $1780USD per ounce level:

Chinese shares were able to re-engage properly with the Shanghai Composite lifting sharply going into the close, currently up 0.3% at 3575 points while the Hang Seng Index has rebounded after a series of very bad sessions, up over 1.2% to 23737 points. Japanese markets are also trying to stabilise with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.4% higher at 27935 points with the USDJPY pair able to put in a small bounceback on its own after being oversold and going through some high volatility overnight, currently at the mid 113 level but nowhere near out of trouble:

Australian stocks had a mild selloff with the ASX200 eventually closing 0.3% lower at 7235 points as the Australian dollar begins its bounceback on the back of the higher than expected GDP print, fulfilling a short term bottom pattern on the four hourly chart, although trailing ATR resistance at the 72 handle may prove too hard to breach:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting slightly going into the London open as the dead cat bounces yet again. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows price unable to cross above its own high moving average with a series of lower lows, but the long candles of support below do suggest a proper bounce is building, although trailing ATR resistance at the 4670 point level is still a long way away:

The economic calendar includes the latest German retail sales, plus final manufacturing PMI prints, then the latter again in the US with the final ISM print.

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Comments

    • And…you know….the Pfizzler mRNA Vax after 3 months or so.

      If I bought the latest newest most high tech car on the market and it completely ceased functioning after 3 months thus endangering my life, and the manufacturer’s response was “buy more car”, I’d be seeking redress.

    • The Merck one was always crap. Pfizers pill is reported at 90% effective and is not a mutagenic. Funny though, that one hasn’t got any media attention.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Not surprising at all re media attention. The agenda is to rush through new *vaccine* technology, not pills, unless they’re mutagenic i guess.

        This is the 21st century, we dont grow vaccines in eggs any more and use salt pills. Come on. Thats the modern equivalent of using leeches.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “Efficacy is about 30%, putting it on a par with Chinese herbal remedies and other placebos.”

      Still better than the regular flu shot at 23%, so its all good.

      Studies have also hinted that it may cause some pretty horrible problems for pregnant women in initial trials.

      • Jumping jack flash

        The debt isnt growing fast enough to prevent the debt from collapsing and governments have stopped using their own debt as stimulus to substitute. So it stands to reason that something bad is going to happen soon unless something changes with regards to that.

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    … New Zealand housing: The looming overdue sort out …

    The National Party new leader Chris Luxon with housing spokesperson Nicola Willis are clear that housing must be restored to the international affordability rating of 3.0 times annual household income, over a reasonable time … and that we have had more than enough talk and it is well past time for action, with a focus on supply …

    National leader Christopher Luxon unaware his $7m Remuera home increased in value by $2.3m over one year … Jenna Lynch … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/national-leader-christopher-luxon-unaware-his-7m-remuera-home-increased-in-value-by-2-3m-over-one-year.html

    … extract …

    … The international measure is a ratio of house prices of three times incomes. New Zealand houses are about eight times our incomes.

    “Well obviously we want affordable houses so we want to get it much closer to 1 to 3 than 1 to 8,” said Willis.

    A 1 to 3 ratio would mean about a 50 percent drop in house prices.

    “This is over time,” Willis responded. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above (access full interview at Newshub) …

    All Editions – Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

    … Former National Party leader Sir John Key on housing in the run up to the 2008 election …

    John Key on housing 2007 … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWPgoAI1cLE

    … but sadly Keys constant housing deceptions and failures become intolerable by 2016 … and he exited just prior to Christmas that year …

    Housing campaigner predicts spiralling house prices will be Key’s ‘Waterloo’ … Rob Stock … Stuff NZ (August 2016)

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83627043/housing-campaigner-predicts-spiralling-house-prices-will-be-keys-waterloo

  2. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    So… all in, long, on the ASX200 at the close. Look out below, again, no doubt. Don’t say you’se weren’t told.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    Went on my morning run and saw a floating PT squeezeball and found a floating pro practice tennis ball. And then passed an abandoned and deflated sherrin on the bikepath. Was feeling fairly good about that, until I realised it all reminded me of JohnR. Then I got sad. 😧

      • You must be getting on as you must be referring to Steeden- don’t they make balls for that weird-as-all-get-out run forward/throw backward wack attack of a game?

        The game they play in hell and make Collingwood supporters watch

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          You might be right there. There does seem to be a massive crossover between Collingwood and Storm supporters.

        • Another day, another chance for swampy to remind everyone that only his balls, and balls just like his, are worth playing with. One, small, hard, spherical and dimpled, loves to be hit with a stick. The other, ovoid, bloated and much larger, loves to be kicked and punched., He loves to share.

  4. Phrase of the day brought to you by your good corporate citizens …. “ultra laissez-faire non-response to Covid”

    • You so what about the ideology making a mess of everything and then watch till its your turn – ????

      People are leaving it if you had not noticed, sorta like a lot of religions … what does that say about the last ones clinging to it …

    • hope your not saying that a globally coordinated program of vaccination led by the State, distributed by planning and mandates in every high income country is laissez-faire?

      Because that would be “interesting”. To avoid an argument I’m not saying I disagree but it would be “interesting”.

      • The vaccination – only – approach is “ultra laissez-faire non-response to Covid”.

        How many times have I pointed out all the other stuff that needs sorting like Aerosols and like ten other things, but naw all some can do is screw with public trust a bit more with vaccinations = freedoms …

        • No it isn’t. The vaccination approach is interventionist.
          Absent vaccination the private sector would shut down anyway.

        • I’ve already showed you multiple times why, you have yet to refute any of it but double down on vaccinations only needed.

          • Jumping jack flash

            There is an obvious and exposed agenda which explains succinctly the curious push for vaccines as a solution and the specific vaccine technology employed and unquestioningly accepted as a gold standard, and the obvious suppression of more traditional vaccine technologies even though they are comparable and arguably more safe.

            People can choose to ignore that agenda or accept it as perfectly fine, but the agenda is real and has been proven.

  5. So I’m thinking, if the gummint spent Brazillions of dollars on a new warship, and after 3 months it broke irreparably and was useless, we’d all be a bit cross, right?

      • You’d be surprised at how much money I’ve made selling my inane comments to Hollywood as screenplays. And my contribution to tv drama is greater and more tragic than you would believe. If I’m correct, the genesis of the seasons 7 and 8 arc of game of thrones started with an admittedly trivial yet scathing comment about the LNP’s FTTN broadband, about how it would be an expensive and disappointing sh1tsh0w overseen by madmen who are so drunk on their own power and sense of importance that they would rather torch the Earth than admit they were wrong. And then we end up with two si1ts0ws, our NBN and game of thrones. I’d also like to apologize in advance for the next 57 marvel movies. Though I think that haroldus should rightly wear as much, if not more, blame for that.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          I’d also like to apologise in advance for the next 57 spinoffs of Mandalorian.

  6. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Hunt has resigned 😑. There goes $20- on a Hunt vs Pliberseck election punt.

    $540- of winnings never to be realized. 😔

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    China home sales slump deepens as easing shows little effect … Bloomberg / The Straits Times

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/china-home-sales-slump-deepens-as-easing-shows-little-effect

    High-Yield Bonds Fall as Home Sales Slump: Evergrande Update … Patrick Winter … Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance

    https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/developers-face-12-billion-trust-004015592.html

    China’s property woes have worsened as home prices slipped in November amid a growing liquidity crisis among the country’s developers … Liangping Gao and Gabriel Crossley … Reuters / Business Insider

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-property-woes-worsen-home-prices-slip-in-november-2021-12?r=AU&IR=T

    Experts: nearly 63 trillion USD/What will the Chinese government do about the local debt crisis? … China Insights … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2zFo171jTY&t=2s