Goldman rethinks OMICRON bullishness

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Goldman with the note. This is a day old so many of metrics have deteriorated. The MBFund is nicely positioned to buy if this gets nasty:

Omicron drives sharp decline in Risk Appetite

Last week newsflow around the Omicron COVID-19 variant weighed on risky assets, overshadowing generally positive macro data on both sides of the Atlantic (European flash PMIs and US consumer sentiment rebounded more than expected). The ‘risk off’ at the end of the week was very sharp, likely exacerbated by positioning and illiquidity around the Thanksgiving holiday – Friday was one of the days with the largest number of assets recording a >2SD move since the late 1990s (Exhibit 1). Dissecting the price reaction of a number of pro-cyclical assets Friday reveals a large COVID-19 growth sell-off (Exhibit 2): Re-opening trades such as Airlines and the GS Recovery vs. Stay at Home Baskets were among the worst-performing assets in SD terms. Credit spreads, which have been relatively resilient to equity volatility for most of this year, have widened sharply. The Dollar has been the least correlated to risky assets, although it weakened vs. the Euro.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.