Goldman with the note:
The National Bureau of Statistics’ 70-city housing price data suggests the average property price in the primary market edged down further from a month ago in November after seasonal adjustments. Housing prices in tier 1 and tier 2 cities rose at a slower pace while prices in lower tier cities fell further. Fewer cities saw higher property prices in primary and secondary markets in November.
NBS’ 70-city primary market average property price change in November: -1.0% mom annualized (seasonally adjusted by GS), +3.1% yoy. October: -1.0% mom annualized, +3.4% yoy.
- Average housing prices in the primary market edged down further by 1% mom annualized in November. Property prices in tier 1 cities rose 3.3% mom annualized in November after seasonal adjustments, moderating from 4.2% in October. Price appreciation in tier 2 cities slowed to 0.5% mom annualized in November (vs. 1.5% in October). Property prices in tier 3 cities fell further by2.5% mom annualized in November following a decline of 2.9% in October and prices in tier 4 cities dropped 4.9% mom annualized in November (vs. -6.8% in October). Fewer cities saw higher property prices in primary and secondary markets in November (Exhibit 2).
- Major cities’ inventory months(sellable gross floor area divided by 12 month rolling gross floor area sold) edged up to 12.0 in November from 11.6 in October. The year-on-year decline in property sales and new starts both narrowed in November based on NBS data. Property completions accelerated meaningfully, reversing from a sharp contraction in October.
- Mortgage extension gained pace slightly in November as suggested by the sequential acceleration in household mid-to-long term loans. While the statement from this year’s Central Economic Working Conference appears to be more pro-growth, we expect the chance of a reversal of property regulations to be low as “housing is for living not for speculation” remained in the statement as the general housing policy guideline.
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