ALP roars ahead of self-destructing LNP

Anthony Albanese’s Australian Labor Party (ALP) two-party preferred lead has widened to its widest margin since the last federal election, according to new polling by Roy Morgan:

ALP support is now at 56.5% (up 1% point since late November) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

This is the largest two-party preferred lead held by the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and exceeds the ALP’s lead during the height of the ‘2020 Bushfires Crisis’ (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

The continuing swing to the ALP came as the Government struggled to get majority support for several bills it has been looking to introduce to Parliament including the establishment of a national corruption commission, reforms to voting laws to require voter ID and a bill to enshrine religious freedom to protect Australians from discrimination on the basis of religious belief or activity.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%)…

Primary Voting Intention for the ALP now ahead of the L-NP

Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% points to 36% in early December and is now clearly ahead of the L-NP, down 1% point to 34.5%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 12.5%.

Support for One Nation was unchanged on 3.5%, support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was at 1% and support for Independents/Others was at 12.5%…

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all five mainland States

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all five mainland States – with its largest leads in South Australia, Victoria and NSW.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58.5% (up 0.5% points since late November) compared to the L-NP on 41.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election…

The ALP has held its lead in NSW over the last two weeks with the ALP now on 55.5% (unchanged since late November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 54.5% (up 3% points since late November) compared to the LNP on 45.5% (down 3% points). This result represents a swing of 12.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia has tightened since late November with the ALP on 50.5% (down 3% points) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 64.5% (up 9% points since late November) well ahead of the L-NP on 35.5% (down 9% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 13.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The L-NP leads in Tasmania with the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%, representing a swing of 7.5% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Yesterday, Anthony Albanese signalled that Labor may oppose the federal government’s mass immigration plan. Doing so would likely strengthen Labor’s position given returning to pre-COVID immigration levels is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Australians.

Unconventional Economist

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