Victoria has recorded 827 new locally acquired COVID cases and a whopping 19 deaths:
By comparison, NSW recorded 173 COVID cases and only two deaths:
The next chart plots daily cases across the two virus jurisdictions:
Active cases are plotted below:
Finally, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are plotted below, which have fallen sharply:
Based on the above chart, the surge in COVID deaths in Victoria is an outlier.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)
- Weekend Reading: 4-5 December 2021 - December 4, 2021
- Auctions deluge continues to flood property market - December 3, 2021
- Sydney’s housing market is truly bananas - December 3, 2021
YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN
Half of migrant engineers unemployed despite "shortages"
MB has long argued that Australia's skilled visa
Company profits ride the stimulus wave
Wednesday's national accounts release for the
Stimulus drives Construction PMI
Via AIG: New orders weak everywhere
Melbourne @9 million is a Bladerunner set
The Herald-Sun has published a spruik piece on
I hope it’s an outlier. Poor bastards.
I don’t think so. In the UK, infections have risen but the death rate has plateaued. If we were to compare like for like population wise, Australia should average 70-90 deaths per day, infinitum. Infections rise, but the death rate hasn’t, the vaccines work well. It’s an endemic reality. Some UK primary schools have 40% active infection rates. But no one would know if you didn’t test.
Interestingly, there does not seem to be a seasonality to this (although a bit early to say). I think we have to change the way we think about this. Continual shutdown are not the answer. Eradication isn’t either. We just have to carry on and get on with it.
Yup, I agree, mate. The “poor bastards” comment was more implying if it wasn’t an outlier and deaths are climbing rapidly, Melbournians are indeed in a grim spot.
Sweden is the model we should follow. Everyone takes personal responsibility. The quicker we learn to live with this the better. WA can lock themselves away, for a small while, but inevitably, a futile gesture.
I am not making light of this. But just to point out, vaccination has no impact on transmission rates. I am fully vaccinated. Tossing up whether to get the booster, or not, although the immunity benefits of the AZ are better longer term than the others, apparently.
The spike was caused by the coroner closing investigations into a number of cases spread over the last few weeks.
I suspect (hope) this might be something of a Monday reporting catch-up.
I can’t believe that 18 octogenarians with multiple comorbidities passed away in Victoria over the weekend.
Surely that’s never happened before?
The state should hide in their basement, holding their breath in silent fear of the indiscriminate killer which stalks them and casts dementia ridden 86 year olds with failing organs from 70 years of smoking into their premature demise.
Fishing72, that language is not called for. A bit of perspective please.
“A bit of perspective please.”
Perspective is what is sorely lacking in this whole ridiculous situation.
Even if covid is 10 times worse than the flu, have we taken measures proportional to that?
Are flu vaccination passports going to be mandatory going forward?
anyone with high blood pressure can’t leave their house?
“Are flu vaccination passports going to be mandatory going forward?”
Soon.
I’m sure the vaccine companies are astonished at how easily the people accepted mandatory treatments, no matter how dodgy and ineffective they are compared to any other vaccine in history (apart from, yes, the flu vaccine) earning them tens of billions of dollars.
All it took was a bit of social engineering – a good dash of urgency and a modicum of plausibility.
I’m looking forward to when restaurants and other food establishments will only allow people in with a Govt issued certificate stating their BMI is under 25. For the record, that might actually be a more effective means of controlling covid.
Just implement a fat tax on everything. Sugary drinks, take out, health insurance etc..
Why can’t the government provide simple data, even if it is lagging by 1 month of the age, comorbidity status and whether the death is with Covid or of Covid.
Because that would completely undermine the “indiscriminate killer” narrative. It’d make the claimed 2% fatality rate seem laughable to anyone under 50 and in decent health.
This.
I can’t believe Biden’s prefix age number is the same as mine yet he looks and acts 30yrs older. No wonder the fear of any trigger to cause demise abounds.
It’s definitely not 2%,
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics
Between the age of 20-29 so far, the number of cases is around 39k, and 9 death. Making it 0.02%.
Between the age of 30-39, it’s 19 death for 33k, so 0.057%
Between the age of 40-49, it’s 42 death for 24k, at 0.175%
Between the age of 50-59, it’s 142 death for 18.5k cases, at 0.6%.
Between the age of 60-69, it’s 207 death for 11k cases, at 1.8%
The trend is that your chance of dying from COVID goes up roughly 3 times for every 10 years in age group. Note that 0.02% is still a lot, in the scheme of things.
Yes, but now factor in the majority of those deaths being “with” covid, not “from covid”, and the fact 80+% of those dying “from” covid also had serious co-morbidities. 0.02% becomes 0.0008% (youth, in good health, no co-morbidities, died from covid, not merely with it).
My hypothesis is it’s got something to do with genetics.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/gene-linked-doubling-risk-covid-19-death-found-by-uk-scientists-2021-11-05/
I would guess you are right. Note that “South Asian” here refers to the Indian subcontinent.
Similarly, a coronavirus outbreak 25,000 years ago may have selected out modern Chinese people for being less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(21)00794-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0960982221007946%3Fshowall%3Dtrue
Ronin see above.
It’s going through nursing homes, again. A lot of over 80 years cases.
Federally regulated nursing homes?
Don’t know. Doctor neighbour was complaining about it.
Same thing in NZ. All staff and patients fully vaccinated as well. At least 3 rest homes (that we’ve been told about) have active outbreaks.
Which is pointless of course – it makes no difference if you are vaccinated or not, whether you carry the virus.
Apparently 17 of the 19 weren’t vaccinated.
Bingo.
“Apparently 17 of the 19 were unvaccinated”
“Premier Daniel Andrews expressed his sympathies to the families of the 19 latest victims of the virus, who he said ranged in age from 52 to 105.
“Mr Andrews said 17 of the 19 people who died “were not fully protected by a COVID-19 vaccine”.
As usual, conveniently lacking in important information.
How many died from covid, or with covid?
How many were so ill they were vaccine exempt? (Likely many as the eldest was 105 years of age.)
How many were obese, or suffering from comorbidities?
How many had had one jab?
How many died due to the vaccine? (unlikely to be told the truth on that one. The only one’s who’d have taken an interest in that, are the healthcare workers who bucked the disgraceful government coercion and resigned.)
How many had not had their booster shot and are now being categorised as not being “fully” vaccinated?
Bingo!
Lots of Bingo’s today.
Japan never had a lockdown deaths 21 November 0
Japanese scientists have a novel theory.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-new-research-suggests-delta-strain-drove-itself-to-extinction-in-japan/Q37746Q7NJS3W4XXTQYC4BGDOA/
New research out of Japan’s National Institute of Genetics suggests the strain drove itself towards a “natural extinction” there after several mutations led to it being unable to make copies of itself.
According to a “potentially revolutionary” theory put forward by Professor Ituro Inoue, a genetics expert, the Delta variant simply accumulated too many mutations to the virus’ error-correcting protein called nsp14.
Prof Inoue says the virus struggled to repair the errors in time and ultimately caused its own “self-destruction”.
Covid is not a threat to anyone in decent shape under 30. Africa as a continent has a vaccination rate of less than 10% or something silly like that. They have poor hygiene practices in much of the continent and basically NO social distancing. Where are the deaths?
Aussies are pussified losers. Grow a set and live with it.
I just want to add to this, the deaths are low, because look at the average age of a man in Africa, versus say Western Europe
Age age ,age.
I’m an old guy but I won’t die from it .
A lot of old people are compromised due bad lifestyle choices compounded by extra years doing so.
No so much age as it is about health.