Victorian COVID cases rise sharply

Victoria has recorded another 1273 new locally acquired COVID cases and eight deaths:

By comparison, NSW recorded only 216 new cases and three deaths:

Daily cases n Victoria were the highest in eight days, whereas they are tracking sideways in NSW:

Active cases continue to trend lower, however:

Cases in hospital also continue to plunge:

At midnight, restrictions were mostly eliminated for vaccinated Victorians, whereas the unvaccinated residents will continue to be treated like lepers:

It will be interesting watching how cases respond. NSW’s experience provides some comfort.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • The median age of COVID deaths in Australia is reported as 84 years.
      The life expectancy of an Australian is 82.9 years.
      So if you die from COVID you would be expected to live longer than the average Australian? Perhaps my understanding of statistics is wrong, but that is just me being cynical.
      One third of AY4.2(Delta version 2) infections in the UK are reported asymptomatic.
      That is why there will always be more infections under a Labour government??? All very confusing!!

    • I believe they are hiding this now because the vaccinated are making up the hospitalisations in bigger numbers – especially the over 80’s with underlying conditions.

      You can be fully vaxxed, on deaths door, and be counted as a hospitalisation for COVID even if you are admitted for a stroke, heart attack, fall, or otherwise.

      It’s not as simple as just being in hospital for COVID alone for many fully vaccinated people over 70 or 80.

      • I dont know here but in Uk the vax protects only just a bit, week 44, the age group 20-49 was fully vaccinated at 65% but still within the same age group 40% hospitalized were fully vaccinated and zero difference mortality in with the nonvaxed once hospitalized .Just a Small protection

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          Are seatbelts a useful analogy here?

          I am not using those seatbelts! There is no study done on the long term usage effects of seatbelt wearing. I rely on natural stopping. I am a healthy male and my body is strong enough to stop myself from flying through a windscreen naturally.

        • ChristopherMEMBER

          Not really given something like 90% of 12+ are vaccinated, the fact that the remaining 10% make up 70% of hospitalisations really tells you something.

          • As you can see in that link; the percentage of the fully vaccinated among the hospital admissions has been rising from 0% (13 September) to 23% (16 November), and if history is any indicator (see Europe), this number will further rise, seemingly representing the waning of the protective effect of the Covid vaccinations over time.

    • Jik the RipperMEMBER

      I recently watched a conversation between Jordan Peterson and John Anderson (ex Deputy PM) and in it, they stated that people aren’t regarded as vaxed until 30 days after their second jab. So, if a person contracts covid 29 days after their second jab and is subsequently hospitalised or dies, then they’re classified as unvaccinated. I’ve tried searching for a definition in the government websites, but can’t locate anything to confirm. Are there any medicos on here that can shed any light? Would seem to be blatant doctoring of statistics if true.

      • The proposition is there is some doctoring of statistics related to an edge case where someone may acquire the disease 1 minute before the 30 day clock ticks over to make over vaccinated/unvaccinated statistics appear more favourable?

        Is that right?

        • Jik the RipperMEMBER

          Correct. Most laymen would consider anyone who is double jabbed as “vaccinated”. This is reinforced when your covid status is immediately updated after the second jab and you can participate in society by flashing your covid certificate. I don’t know why they would hold a different definition of “vaccinated” for classifying sick/deceased people. There may well be a good reason, but they don’t certainly don’t advertise that there is a difference when they announce the cases.

        • Jik the RipperMEMBER

          I’ve found NSW definitions on: https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccination-status

          “NSW is currently the only jurisdiction releasing consistent and complete data on this topic. Source: NSW Surveillance Reports. Data may change as reports update findings (they note ‘vaccination status is updated regularly using both the Australian Immunisation Register and the patient’s interview’). Latest data used here. Definitions:
          ‘Fully vaccinated’ = received second dose at least 14 days prior to known exposure to Covid.
          received second dose less than 14 days prior; or received first dose at least 21 days prior to known exposure ‘Partially vaccinated’ =
          ‘No effective dose’ = received first dose less than 21 days prior to known exposure; or has had no dose at all”

          They’re allowing for lags of between 14 to 21 days since known exposure to covid. How they know when someone is exposed is obviously subjective. So, definitions would definitely skew results towards higher unvaccinated numbers in ICU/death.

          Cant find Victoria’s definitions. You’d think they’d be uniform across the country but wouldn’t be surprised if they adopt their own.

    • If Europe is a good indicator of what’s to come to Australia Covid-wise (and it has been in the past), that means that the share of vaccinated among hospital admissions is to rise steadily, sometimes up to a point where e.g in the public hospital in Antwerp (Belgium) now 100% of ICU Covid patients are vaccinated – see report: https://www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20211105_97146276

  1. Cases become less of a metric now – it’s more about hospialisations.

    Victoria and NSW are now in good and manageable shape – and will most likely continue to be for the majority of summer.

    The lack of “isolation rules” means that many people who are asymptomatic will get COVID .. not even know it… and just get on with their lives … never even documented as a case.

    This with any hope would let the virus rip through summer – giving people the mixture of Vax + Natural Immunity post assymptomatic infection – something we may well prepare us for WInter next year very nicely (combined with a further 4-5 months of reseach on boosters and anti-virals).

    It’s only really now the sheep that are lining up to get tested – and more and more people will just go back to their 2018 lives where they just get on with it.

    Anyone else read it this way?

    • Jumping jack flash

      The solution is simple and effective. All these case numbers simply will not do. People will start to question how effective the vaccines are. Perhaps this will lead to vaccine hesitancy and we can’t have that!

      Firstly, they’ll put a stop to widespread testing and stop the whole “get tested if you have COVID-19 symptoms” mantra. Only those who are ill enough to present to hospital will be tested, which will mean positive tests will align to hospitalisations. Problem solved.

      The way to do this will be just as easy and effective – just stop the tests being free and charge people a small fee. It wouldn’t need to be much, just $5 a test. This will also fit in nicely with eventual introduction of new rules for the unvaxxed which will require them to get daily tests to leave their house.

      The vaccinated won’t need to be tested, they’re vaccinated.

  2. I hate to say this but in 6 months time everyone in Victoria will lose their “Full Vaccination” status and most likely be in lockdown until booster rate gets back up to 90%. Your first 2 doses will mean nothing, then 3 doses will mean nothing and so on if you get my drift. NSW a bit less certain

    • ^ This!
      Is the real story and our recent resumption of ‘freedoms’ is just temporary and part of the theatre as we bounce along the conveyor belt to CCP level e surveillance.
      The mantra that vaccines alone will ‘save’ is all anyone needs to hear to conclude what the end game is all about.
      There are those who will challenge- the VIC protesters are one group and overseas we see other like-minded people who are fed up with the deceit and they are getting heard! From what I see in Straya, we’re whipped already and will remain subservient to any authority that barks an order.

      “World’s leading ICU doc goes legal on his hospital”

      https://www.anhinternational.org/news/world-s-leading-icu-doc-goes-legal-on-his-hospital/

      • What annoys me is that the whole “vaccines will save you” message is preventing other measures which might actually save people from being implemented. So allowing vaccinated people to wander around willy nilly without being tested for covid, while barring unvaccinated people from entering places, has (in NZ) resulted in several rest homes’ patients and care workers becoming fully infected with covid despite being double vaccinated, and now elderly people are dying again. Its as if we learned nothing from New York in early 2020. The over reliance on vaccination instead of using daily rapid antigen testing (still not approved for use in NZ) has basically been a death sentence for these elderly souls. Yet its the unvaccinated that are being excluded from society as if this will prevent vaccinated people from catching covid and spreading it.

        • Fully agree to that; the claim that vaccination is the ONLY way of feasibly dealing with Covid is demonstrably false; Indonesia successfully suppressed a Covid surge from June/July to September 2021 while only having a vaccination rate of 30%. If they can pull that off, Australia would be able to do that as well.

          • A young thin population. Indonesians are pretty thin with a mean BMI around 22.
            This virus goes after old and obese people.

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass_index

            https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n623

            Covid-19 death rates are 10 times higher in countries where more than half of the adult population is classified as overweight, a comprehensive report from the World Obesity Federation has found.

            The report analysed mortality data from Johns Hopkins University and the WHO Global Health Observatory data on obesity.1 Of the 2.5 million covid-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where over half the population is classified as overweight—defined as a body mass index above 25.

            Taking data from over 160 countries, the report found linear correlations between a country’s covid-19 mortality and the proportion of adults that are overweight. There is not a single example of a country with less than 40% of the population overweight that has high death rates (over 10 per 100 000), the report said. Similarly, no country with a death rate over 100 per 100 000 had less than 50% of their population overweight.

            Didn’t matter what they did in Indonesia. They were going to do fine no matter what.

    • We’ve probably all already caught the damn thing if we have had any interaction with society. Free boosters for life just by living and socializing without the need for government mandated boosters.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Australia is following the same path as every other country, and, slowly, every other country is doing the whole boosters and voiding vaccination status thing. We will certainly be no different.

      • because politicians, health ministers and health officers cant think for themselves and actually do some research and clinical studies for themselves. So instead Australia will go the UK is doing it so I guess we should do it. The UK said Germany is doing it so we should probably do it. Germany says I guess the Austrians have this worked out. The Austrians say that the Israelis are pretty clever, let’s follow them. And so on and so forth until it gets to the last country which is scratching its head going, we have no idea but Pfizer looks like such a nice company.

  3. What happens over time, with this wishful thinking, as overseas experience shows is that the public health systems gets ground down, first the health staff leave because who knows better than them that it is a numbers game they cannot win in the long run.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/the-mass-exodus-of-americas-health-care-workers/620713/

    And then there are always less hospital beds available in a continuing process…..we are earlier in the game than they are.

    https://cnycentral.com/news/local/nothing-has-changed-syracuse-hospitals-and-emts-still-in-crisis-mode-ahead-of-winter

  4. Our elite mathematicians from our elite (export industry) universities have had 2 years to develop accurate models of virus spread and have failed.

    Why is this?

    • Accurate model of the effect of COVID on an unvaccinated population exists since last year. All the lockdowns are based on those models.

      There are no accurate model for a vaccinated population because nobody knows the real effectiveness of the vaccines. Will need to wait a year until we find out.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Because they’re people, and people tend to overestimate their abilities. I am a believer in the Peter Principal.

      Also people in general have been getting far more stupid.

      I blame debt – the fact that it is essential and everyone must spend all available time and effort to acquire the amount they need, and then it is essential for everyone to spend all available time and effort servicing it, instead of being able to take the time to focus on broadening their abilities, skills and intelligence – but I blame debt for almost everything.

  5. It’s very hard to know what is going on. The last 20 months have shown this tonne very unpredictable. This could be due to a myriad of factors which are hard to measure and which alter the outcome. Or it could be because this is non-natural and hence not observing natural behavior.

    The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent emergence of variants has been odd.
    1. A virus suddenly appears in the Wuhan population. It is already perfectly adapted for humans with several highly unusual features that confer this human adaptation. Like everything else, viruses adapt to their host and make like as easy as possibly for themselves. There has been no animal found to which the virus was as well adapted. It’s almost as though it was adapted specifically for humans.
    2. Initially the virus was pretty stable and there was essentially no change for many months.
    3. Then in late 2020, 3 N501Y mutations appear near-simultaneously on 3 different continents. At a time when global travel was significantly constrained. This gave us alpha (UK), beta (South Africa), and gamma (Brazil). continents. These N501Y spike mutations came to attention due to their unusual combination and number of mutations. All of these conferred an advantage, as evidenced by rapidly rising case numbers where they appeared. These variants would significantly offset the vaccines which were just emerging.
    4. Then delta emerged, and quickly swept the world. Delta further offset the vaccine with respect to cases and transmission. Delta also rendered non-pharmacological interventions largely ineffective.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625721000730?via%3Dihub
    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210311/N501Y-mutation-in-SARS-CoV-2-responsible-for-increased-viral-transmission.aspx

    Why did 3 heavily mutated 501Y lineages (alpha, beta and gamma) all arise on 3 different continents at almost the same time? Convergent evolution? Or something else? That is an important question.

    So what is going to happen next? That depends largely on how we got to our current position.

    • We were told that these mRNA shots were not experimental, have been around for 20 years, and enable a new targetted vaccine to be produced in record time.

      Certainly these jabs were produced remarkably soon after Covid-19 appeared. It seemed that one minute Bill Gates told us we would need a vaccine to get through this, and the next minute vaccines were being rushed through shortened trial processes. Quite an accomplishment and a testament to Bill Gates intelligence and foresight.

      However since these variants have appeared, the ability to produce a new targetted vaccine in record time seems to have disappeared.

      Why is this?

      • The current vaccines mitigate disease severity reasonably well.

        Updated vaccines will almost certainly not be any better at stopping colonisation / transmission.

        I suspect they can churn out a new vaccine fairly quick when the need arises. The timeframe for this was 100 days. They are now pushing for 30 days.

      • Jumping jack flash

        mRNA has been a pie-in-the-sky treatment that was originally thought up and developed for treating cancer, and possibly AIDS/HIV, I think.

        As such it has technically been “in development” for quite some time – possibly limited to academia, models, and thought-experiments. But a vaccine using this technology has never been produced and released to the public for humans – as far as I know – before these COVID vaccines.

        I am completely wary of the mRNA vaccines, and I’m happy to wait for 5 years before seeing what long-term effects this mass experiment finds. But I also realise that if there are any long term effects no link will be found between them and the vaccines because nobody will bother looking for a link, or any links will be covered up and locked away.

        Waiting for Novavax, when will it arrive in Australia? Latest news is they’ve sorted out their production issues and can make 150 million doses a month. Indonesia has already approved it for emergency use.

      • TheLambKingMEMBER

        We were told that these mRNA shots were not experimental, have been around for 20 years, and enable a new targetted vaccine to be produced in record time.

        Always with the conspiracy theories!

        mRNA vaccines were $100 per shot to produce, most ‘traditional delivery mechanism’ vaccines cost less than $5.

        Does a drug company sell a $5, easy to produce vaccine, or spend millions on trials and manufacturing plants to sell something that is $20 more expensive and more expensive to transport?

        mRNA vaccines only real advantage was the ability to modify it VERY quickly. Now we have the manufacturing scale, the next vaccine for any new virus (and we are certain to have more) could produced within months – and prevent a pandemic!

        The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent emergence of variants has been odd.

        WTF? There are thousands of examples through history that show exactly the same behavior. A ‘covid’ virus was predicted to occur and vaccines were being developed for them for decades!

        • And lo and behold, it breaks out. Of all laces, in the city where they were researching this.

          The USA (NIH, Fauci and EcoHealth) were up to their necks in this. I suspect the US thinking was that it is better to have a seat at the table and have some oversight over research that would happen anyway, rather than being dealt out.
          However I suspect China played these guys, took the lessons learned, and quietly took things a step further with SARS-CoV-2.
          That could explain why Fauci and EcoHealth have been saved from the axe.

          Covid vaccine was shelved after substantial problems with ADE with SARS 20 years ago. That was one of the fears in Feb 2020 – we didn’t have a good track record with CV vaccines.

          Have you noted that the place doing all this research for an. inevitable pandemic has contributed…… exactly nothing to the fight. No drugs. No therapies. Despite decades of generously funded research.
          All China gave was misleading clinical advice (early intubation) that killed thousands.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            All China gave was misleading clinical advice (early intubation) that killed thousands.
            That was more pertinently the northern Italian experience at the start of their Covid rush in Feb/March 2020. They found NIV was not particularly useful and patients often went from nasal prong/non-rebreather oxygen to requiring intubation in a hurry. The advent of dexamethasone along with other lung protective measures have certainly helped to improve ICU survival from Covid. So treatment has improved, number of people requiring intubation has dropped, and I think your statement regarding incorrect treatment needs to be very heavily critiqued against the prevailing evidence at the time.

          • In April, I sat through clinical Webinars with Chinese clinicians apparently happy to share their expertise. Could not have been wrong. Their advice was go hard go early with intubation.

            That set governments on a panic. While laypeople were rushing to buy toilet paper, governments were rushing to buy ventilators. From China. And PPE – also from China.
            Have a look at this state-sponsored propaganda.
            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BSTDmkftc1I

            After Italy’s disastrous experience with the “helping hand” of Chiba, it was doctors in NYC who questioned the Chinese help.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html
            https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200422/most-covid-19-patients-placed-on-ventilators-died-new-york-study-shows

            Dex (thanks RECOVERY trial) came a fair bit later.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Yes but my point is that in a ARDS-type situation (such as a Covid patient) in respiratory failure with climbing CO2 levels, you’re going to need to ventilate them. The advice to intubate people was not, and has not, been “wrong” in that setting.

            So the Chinese advice wasn’t misleading knowing what we knew about the pandemic. I’m yet to see any paper show harm from intubation vs NIV in Covid patients; happy to read it if you find one.

          • I’ll dig out.

            For 20 years, we have moved to NIV precisely because it produces better outcomes than intubation.

            China and C19 turned all these advances on their head. We were encouraged to intubate early because
            1. The patients deteriorated quickly and they would need intubation anyway and NIV was dangerous as might miss rapid deterioration and it was only deferring the inevitable
            AND
            2. To protect HCW with inadequate PPE against a super virus. That YouTube video said what was required. No one had that.

            Now we are back to NIV in various forms – HHFNO, CPAP, BiPAP. mortality now is much lower – partly vaccinated, partly steroids and monoclonal, but partly 20 years of hard-won advances with NIV.

            Do you remember NYC developing a computerised lottery to distribute limited vents?
            Do you recall NYC intensivists trying to swim against the tide of early intubation?
            Do you remember poorly trained doctors playing with vents?

            https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/27/venitilators-coronavirus-lottery-152574

            https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-medical-errors-hospitals.amp.html

            Yeah, we killed people through being mislead.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Well I disagree with you there. What you have are a group of inexperienced intensivists/anaethetists who were dealing with a brand new entity and didn’t have the clinical experience to “push the boundaries” on what Covid patients could tolerate by way of respiratory failure prior to intubating them. That’s no different to literally any new pathology, where (with experience) you improve your morbidity and mortality. In a perfect world where they had the best information on hand right away, maybe some of those patients live. But to make the sweeping statement “All China gave was misleading clinical advice (early intubation) that killed thousands” (and keeping in mind that your WebMD study is dated from April 2020 – still very early on in the piece) I think to myself that it looks very easy in retrospect. Even if there was the advice “don’t intubate until you’ve exhausted every other avenue”, if you’re standing over a patient with a pCO2 of 80mmHg and they look exhausted, I don’t think “nah, she’ll be right mate” is the correct play.

          • Let’s agree to disagree.

            I can’t (won’t) forget being lied to by Chinese clinicians in late April about this. Because by late April, they knew better.

            We caused lots of harm in 2020. No inhaled bronchodilators for asthma until in a controlled setting. Same for adrenaline in croup. Same with nitrous or Penthrox for procedural sedation.

            None of those decisions had anything to do with not understanding these diseases. They had everything to do with HCW being told to look after themselves and others by withholding “dangerous inhalational therapy.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Alright, controversial statement for the evening:
            They had everything to do with HCW being told to look after themselves and others by withholding “dangerous inhalational therapy.
            This is entirely appropriate in a pandemic setting. With the amount of time and effort goes into training a HCW (particularly above as you point out that inexperienced doctors were left to operate ventilators), why would you be foolish enough to expose them to danger? Once they’re either sick or dead, they do not replenish. That then leaves them unable to potentially treat other patients.
            It’s a pandemic. Normal rules of operation go out the window. You’re not going to save everyone; that doesn’t mean you need to be foolhardy and unnecessarily expose HCW’s to risk. Would you put a field hospital on the front line in a war?

            Frankly, nobody was listening to the Chinese in April. Much more pertinent information was filtering through from Italy and Korea. Then we got to see the horror of the US and UK experiences. Fortunately, Australia got spared the worst of it through a mixture of geographical isolation and immediate restriction of person movement through the country.

          • Sure. But that’s not what you said. You said intubation was clinically necessary in an ARDS like illness with high CO2 etc.
            Well sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn’t.

            You now say it was a pandemic, normal rules don’t apply, preserving workforce is paramount, greatest good for greatest number etc. Correct. And we kept doing that for months throughout much of 2020.

            Perhaps society deserves to know the truth in this matter.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Well they’re two separate points.
            On an individual level, intubating someone in an ARDS-like situation in a completely novel pathogen like Sars-CoV-2 would have made complete sense at the time. Indeed, if you’re staring down the barrel of respiratory arrest, it’s still probably the right move. Where we’ve improved is the adjunct treatment to stop people deteriorating to requiring intubation. Were mistakes made early in the pandemic? Yes, of course (in hindsight; at the time they thought they were doing the right thing / it was the standard of care at the time). Did we learn from it and have we improved? Also yes.

            The other part was looking at the pandemic on a population level in response to you stating HCW’s were withholding inhalational therapy. My point was that without adequate safety – PPE etc – HCW’s shouldn’t have been putting themselves in harm’s way. They are two separate scenarios entirely.

      • Coincidental timing – 501 appeared at the same time testing vaccines
        Coincidental geography- 501 appeared same 3 countries where they were testing vaccines

        Ah ‘tis a strange world.

        • And its probably also a coincidence that Delta arose in India, where 90% of their billion people got vaccinated with AstraZenica as well.

          • I always considered delta was a chine play aimed at their nearest strong competitor. Quite different to the 3 earlier 501 variants.

      • They were playing around with viruses (including N501Y in mouse-adapted strains) when testing vaccines.

        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32732280/

        We adapted a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2 by serial passaging in the respiratory tract of aged BALB/c mice. The resulting mouse-adapted strain at passage 6 (called MASCp6) showed increased infectivity in mouse lung and led to interstitial pneumonia and inflammatory responses in both young and aged mice after intranasal inoculation. Deep sequencing revealed a panel of adaptive mutations potentially associated with the increased virulence. In particular, the N501Y mutation is located at the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. The protective efficacy of a recombinant RBD vaccine candidate was validated by using this model.

        This is what some people don’t get.
        They say there is no trace of gene editing.
        We have been selectively breeding animals for centuries before we even discovered genes.

        It’s like accusing someone of murder, and the defence being they don’t have a gun. It’s not like murder was unknown in times past.

  6. Good on Scott Morrison, you are a leader. We in the community also DENUNCIATE violence

    Message to Dan Andrews. Why do you have to be so different, why do you have to CONDEMN peaceful protestors and the unvaccinated

    hehehe

      • Freedumbs ha ha that’s really witty and funny. Those others must be so embarrassed by that.

      • Freedumbs….thats a new one for the vocabulary…thanks…. I will assume I am dealing with same person called Ginger last night as I am today but who knows apart from you (and your colleagues) hehehe

        An interesting point that perhaps you, any SHILLS, or true commenters may want to have a crack at

        We are told that good interest rate policy set by government should be thoroughly INDEPENDENT of politicians. Hence why we have an RBA

        Politicians have vested interests in regaining election and as they have the means and resources to achieve that through the use of society’s resources (raised by taxation….we will leave the printing press issue alone for this one as that is a whole other story) and also having a monopoly on violence through use of armed forces they will set interest rates policy that benefits their standing in the eyes of the community so they have the best chance of being re-elected

        Understand that turkisk president edrogan sets interest rate policy which has been widely condemned for this reason. thus in Australia we have the RBA to set interest rate policy as they are both independent, and perceived to be independent of politicians. A good policy I think

        So with that in mind why on earth would the victorian labor govt want to move the ability of the chief health officer to set the rules in a pandemic and move it across to a politician (health minister) who may compromise what is in the best interest of the victorian society just so he and the dear leader and the party gain re-election. this is not just an issue for today but applies to all victorian govts in the future. Humans do NOT change. they do things that benefit themselves

        You see the problem about being independent and being seen to be independent. We are told it is good to have regulators and RBA etc who are independent of politicians for the reasons above, and suddenly the victorian govt says yeh nah we know what is best and we are going to make a politician be in charge rather than a trained doctor (who has NO vested political bias)

        The whole issue is quite ripe for abuse for any unscrupulous politician seeking re-election. and the politician can say oh well we have checks and balances and you can trust us will be treated with disbelief

        I enjoy my debate with you Ginger or who ever you are….you / your colleagues are very interesting and would probably make great drinking buddies….shame people differ on philosophy….I for one am NOT interested in 30 pieces of silver as independence is very important to me….but I understand people need to act in their pecuniary or ideological interests. What I don’t like is not knowing peoples hidden agendas. Not suggesting that applies to you or any colleagues of yours…. I am just saying…..

        oh….and please do not copy and paste some scripted reply…just answer the question rather than usual trick of trying to ask me a question to catch me out hehehe

          • LOL….couple questions

            So with that in mind why on earth would the victorian labor govt want to move the ability of the chief health officer to set the rules in a pandemic and move it across to a politician (health minister) who may compromise what is in the best interest of the victorian society just so he and the dear leader and the party gain re-election?

            You see the problem about being independent and being seen to be independent ?.

        • I’m not sure whether this answers your question, let me know if not:
          Nothing has shifted. Please look at the responsibilities of the CHO. The relevant ones (for your question) is the provision of advice to the Minister and to perform the functions or powers specified in the Public Health and Wellbeing Act 2008.
          i.e. 1. advise and 2. act in accordance with the relevant acts of Parliament.

          • Oh boy….LOL…..what sort of answer is that…..this is a distraction for me so I have to get back to work which is unlike others who are already at work hehehe

            Anyone else want to weigh in on the questions

            So with that in mind why on earth would the victorian labor govt want to move the ability of the chief health officer to set the rules in a pandemic and move it across to a politician (health minister) who may compromise what is in the best interest of the victorian society just so he and the dear leader and the party gain re-election?

            You see the problem about being independent and being seen to be independent?.

            Hopefully some journalists may pick up on this and want to give it some thought. perhaps would make an interesting story for debate in the community

          • I don’t follow your reasoning. CHO advises, Govt acts.
            You’re effectively saying that the CHO would have (acting independently) implemented less harsh and therefore more popular measures, but the Govt (Dear Leader or whatever) has instead implemented Stasi-level measures that somehow enhance re-election prospects. That’s my reading of what you wrote. Is this correct?

          • Several people have commented on similar changes around the world. More direct government decision making, with an emphasis on security.

            Look at UK. A subtle pivot from public health to security.
            https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/10/01/uk-health-security-agency-addressing-the-impact-of-health-threats-on-the-nation/
            https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency/about

            Meanwhile Sweden yesterday announced it has jumped on the vaccine pass bandwagon
            https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-introduce-covid-vaccine-passes-indoors-events-2021-11-17/

            Could all be coincidence. But I doubt it.

          • re ginger 3.05pm

            To any journalists: Interesting story for any journalists that may want to debate this in the community. And perhaps be prepared for any counter claims made by labor, perhaps speak some liberal party types to get counter attacks against what I expect the argument labor will run

            And refer victoria bar and law institute and chris blanden QC comments

            To ginger: nice twisting of the words but it wont work….you are probably deliberately wasting time and obfuscating so people lose interest in this debate and that way you win

            To be clear CHO will act independently and will make decisions on that basis, and if outcome is more harsh or less harsh or whatever is not the issue. The issue is CHO will make independent decisions, or at least decisions seen as being independent. The govt will be BOUND by the CHO decision. this is the preferred position

            If same power vested in political party it could be misused. Not saying it will be. But strongly saying the potential for mis-using these powers to seek re-election is very strong.

            Just like putting a child alone in a lolly shop and opening the glass doors on the counters and saying to the child please do not touch any lollies. Perhaps the child wont but the urge to abuse the situation and eat the lollies is very strong. Hence why the politicians should not be given the CHO powers because they may abuse the power. I feel more comfortable knowing any decisions the CHO make will BIND the govt to follow (in other words do NOT change the current CHO powers)

            Remember. One must be independent and seen to be independent. Do NOT change the current CHO powers

          • I think you’re too wound-up to think rationally. Nothing has changed with respect to CHO’s powers to date.

            I agree though that the proposed legislation needs amendment – I agree with Deborah Glass in this respect.

          • JOURNALISTS
            Interesting story for you??? Independence of CHO under old laws and new proposed laws which could link in to whether community is handing STASI laws to andrews govt (chris blanden QC). Could tie in with RBA independence and say edrogan turkish president powers on interest rates and concept of independence and being seen to be independent. Different angle so perhaps can run good story. goes to whole seperation of powers issue, think there is lot of mileage here in this story. Not aware that any journalist debated this so far. Could sell papers or interesting TV story. whole concept of why we have seperate agencies with own powers like rba etc and being independent and seen to be independent

          • We shall see but the fact you and others have jumped on my comments in different stories over the last few weeks when i discuss the andrews govt pandemic response tell me there is perhaps a lot of utility in what I say….perhaps over the last few weeks I have hit a lot of raw nerves so that suggest very strongly the utility in my various postings

            and to any JOURNALISTS out there may be an interesting story. from memory since later in october and onwards there are many postings in different macrobusiness articles discussing different issues about andrews govt pandemic bill

  7. Well the stupid Victorian Sheffield Shield team have ruined my day with a potential positive case cancelling the days cricket I was going to go to.