The great HomeBuilder boom is coming to an end

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling approvals data for September, which shows that approvals nationally are falling sharply following the ending of the HomeBuilder subsidy scheme in March:

The below charts plot annual dwelling approvals, commencements and completions against population growth nationally and across the five major states. These show that the great HomeBuilder dwelling construction boom will go into reverse next year once the current pipeline of construction is exhausted.

National:

Nationally, dwelling commencements hit 212,000 in the June quarter of 2021 versus dwelling approvals of 232,000 in the September quarter:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.