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Macro Afternoon

Nordea with the note:

We warned back in September how lockdowns would become relevant again within a matter of months despite right about every politician declaring victory against Covid-19. We currently see targeted measures against those who remain unvaccinated across Europe to combat “the pandemic of the unvaccinated”, but these measures are very unlikely to work wonders for the virus spread as studies show that the vaccination-effect on transmission risks wanes quickly three months after the second jab. Maybe a broader booster-jab-strategy will be attempted before the lockdownistas will gain the upper hand and implement broader restrictions during the winter? At least it will be interesting to see what authorities will do when they figure out that scapegoating the few un-vaccinated will NOT change the course of the virus spread.

We remain very sceptical that inflation is about to drop back for the same reason as the pamphlet of political decisions taken through Covid; i) direct transfers, ii) vaccine mandates and iii) restrictions on services consumption (leading to a pick-up in goods consumptions) is very inflationary in nature and we are about to be served MORE of that same cocktail this winter, not less.

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