Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar free falls as Fed hikes return

Stocks tried to bounce back from the big falls on Friday following the (over) reaction to the latest COVID variant news, with Asian stock markets continuing to sell off mildly while Wall Street and European futures are upbeat. The USD is taking back positions against a transitory higher Euro while Yen safe haven bidding is continuing.  Gold remains locked below the $1800USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has gapped higher following weekend trade, currently at the mid $57K level but daily resistance overhead at $59K or so is still too hard to beat:

Chinese shares are still selling off with the Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3557 points while the Hang Seng Index is still running away, closing 1.1% lower at 23812 points. Japanese markets will want another holiday soon, with the Nikkei 225 closing down nearly 1.6% at 28283 points with the USDJPY pair tried to bounce back from its devastating 200 pip drop on Friday night with a big gap open but instead has return to the lows just above the 113 handle:

Australian stocks still couldn’t escape the carnage with the ASX200 closing 0.5% lower at 7239 points as the Australian dollar tries to form a bottom here just above the 71 handle after falling sharply on Friday night due to the big drop in commodity prices:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are actually up more nearly 2% and 1% respectively going into the London open but is this a recovery or a dead cat bounce? The S&P500 four hourly chart shows price wanting to head back to the previous weekly lows at the 4650 point level which may yet turn into strong resistance:

The economic calendar includes European consumer confidence and the latest German inflation rate print, while in the US its pending home sales plus an important speech from Fed Chair Powell.

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    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There was a well worn path of ESS girls getting to know the mining staff as a way of getting an onsite job.

      There’s just different ways of going about it.

    • Someone ElseMEMBER

      I remember a shutdown at an LNG facility where two of the peggies were kicked off site for offering their services to the the lads in the toilets. The queue was epic…apparently. Those girls must have been exhausted.

  1. Given most of SA has been exposed to covid and only 23% are vaccinated, the anti vaxxers stupid argument “natural immunity from infection is stronger than the vaccine” has been proved completely wrong by Omicron. The fast spread of Omicron can only be because it is able to breakthrough “natural immunity”.
    By implication vaccination becomes even more important.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      It actually might be to the benefit of humanity, omicron more contagious but way less harmful from the available info, so maybe because they aren’t vaccinated the virus mutated in the more natural way which is less deadly.

      If they were vaccinated, the virus Would have mutated to break through the vaccine and become more deadly.
      The real dangerous mutation will be coming from among the vaccinated. Just like most dangerous bacteria comes from antibiotic resistant strains

      • There is no evidence that it’s less deadly. There is evidence that it breaks through natural immunity. If there was less vaccination there would be less cases, less severe cases, less time for the virus to evolve. Mutation isn’t based on selection, so the vaccines do prevent dangerous mutations.

        Of course nothing I’ve said here will be accepted.

        So let’s try this. Omicron is less deadly than delta, vaccines enhance dangerous mutations, natural immunity and vaccines have equal breakthrough risk so people should get omicron rather than the vaccine.

        We could test each conclusion in 3 mths but I know even if the first is proved completely correct and the second is discredited it won’t make any difference – just as it hasn’t all the times the anti vaxxers, lockdown deniers, deadly virus advocates have been wrong, after being wrong, after being wrong for the past 2 years – and then turn to the next thing to be even more wrong but more and more sure they are right.

    • Wrong. Africa has had few problems from COVID despite low vaccination rates. Since the discovery of Omicron, it appears that it is the dominant form of the virus there. It’s symptoms are mild. It is far more reasonable to conclude, that like the spanish flu, COVID is evolving into a less virluent form. Africans have natural immunity thanks to widespread Omicron infection and therefore no need of vaccines.

      • This is a sweeping statement littered with some grand assumptions. You make it sounds as though all of Africa has had Omicron which implies it has been circulating for ages. Is it not the case it was detected there literally only mere days ago?

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Even in tech hub Shenzhen, China’s property market succumbs to chills … David Kirton … Reuters

    SHENZHEN, China, Nov 29 (Reuters) – Life used to be good for Jerry Tang, who left his rural hometown in 2014 to become a real estate agent in Shenzhen – China’s tech megacity and one of the world’s hottest property markets.

    Just a few years ago Tang could make up to 50,000 yuan ($7,800) in a good month selling apartments. Last year, he was making around 15,000 yuan a month, but this year that’s fallen to about 5,000 yuan and mostly comes from commission on rentals.

    “It’s definitely much harder to sell this year,” he said. “Buyers are waiting to see what happens with the market, while developers are cash-strapped, they are taking time to pay commission to agents.”

    In Shenzhen – home to 17.6 million people and firms like gaming powerhouse Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) and telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies (HWT.UL) – some smaller realtor offices have closed. Eight real estate agents Reuters spoke with also say at least a third of their colleagues have either left the industry or are thinking about it. … read more via hyperlink above …

    China property bond fears remain as house prices fall … Financial Times

    Many Chinese Developers to Default in 2022, Economist Collier Says … Bloomberg / Youtube

    Property tax concerns for China’s homeowners, buyers amid Xi Jinping’s common prosperity drive … Jane Cai … South China Morning Post